Heat contributes to an increase in mortality from several causes. In infants, the first week of life is the most critical window of vulnerability.

BackgroundExperimental studies have shown a decrease in driving performance at high temperatures. The epidemiological evidence for the relationship between heat and motor vehicle crashes is not consistent.ObjectivesWe estimated the impact of high ambient temperatures on the daily number of motor vehicle crashes and, in particular, on crashes involving driver performance factors (namely distractions, driver error, fatigue, or sleepiness).MethodsWe performed a time-series analysis linking daily counts of motor vehicle crashes and daily temperature or occurrence of heat waves while controlling for temporal trends. All motor vehicle crashes with victims that occurred during the warm period of the years 2000–2011 in Catalonia (Spain) were included. Temperature data were obtained from 66 weather stations covering the region. Poisson regression models adjusted for precipitation, day of the week, month, year, and holiday periods were fitted to quantify the associations.ResultsThe study included 118,489 motor vehicle crashes (an average of 64.1 per day). The estimated risk of crashes significantly increased by 2.9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.7%, 5.1%] during heat wave days, and this association was stronger (7.7%, 95% CI: 1.2%, 14.6%) when restricted to crashes with driver performance–associated factors. The estimated risk of crashes with driver performance factors significantly increased by 1.1% (95% CI: 0.1%, 2.1%) for each 1°C increase in maximum temperature.ConclusionsMotor vehicle crashes involving driver performance–associated factors were increased in association with heat waves and increasing temperature. These findings are relevant for designing preventive plans in a context of global warming.CitationBasagaña X, Escalera-Antezana JP, Dadvand P, Llatje Ò, Barrera-Gómez J, Cunillera J, Medina-Ramón M, Pérez K. 2015. High ambient temperatures and risk of motor vehicle crashes in Catalonia, Spain (2000–2011): a time-series analysis. Environ Health Perspect 123:1309–1316; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409223

Abstract. The current operational very short-term and shortterm quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) at the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) is made by three different methodologies: Advection of the radar reflectivity field (ADV), Identification, tracking and forecasting of convective structures (CST) and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models using observational data assimilation (radar, satellite, etc.). These precipitation forecasts have different characteristics, lead time and spatial resolutions. The objective of this study is to combine these methods in order to obtain a single and optimized QPF at each lead time. This combination (blending) of the radar forecast (ADV and CST) and precipitation forecast from NWP model is carried out by means of different methodologies according to the prediction horizon. Firstly, in order to take advantage of the rainfall location and intensity from radar observations, a phase correction technique is applied to the NWP output to derive an additional corrected forecast (MCO). To select the best precipitation estimation in the first and second hour (t+1 h and t+2 h), the information from radar advection (ADV) and the corrected outputs from the model (MCO) are mixed by using different weights, which vary dynamically, according to indexes that quantify the quality of these predictions. This procedure has the ability to integrate the skill of rainfall location and patterns that are given by the advection of radar reflectivity field with the capacity of generating new precipitation areas from the NWP models. From the third hour (t+3 h), as radar-based forecasting has generally low skills, only the quantitative precipitation forecast from model is used. This blending of different sources of prediction is verified for different types of Correspondence to: A. Atencia (aatencia@meteo.cat) episodes (convective, moderately convective and stratiform) to obtain a robust methodology for implementing it in an operational and dynamic way.

The relationship between weather conditions and psychiatric disorders has been a continuous subject of speculation due to contradictory findings. This study attempts to further clarify this relationship by focussing on specific conditions such as panic attacks and non-panic anxiety in relation to specific meteorological variables. All psychiatric emergencies attended at a general hospital in Barcelona (Spain) during 2002 with anxiety as main complaint were classified as panic or non-panic anxiety according to strict independent and retrospective criteria. Both groups were assessed and compared with meteorological data (wind speed and direction, daily rainfall, temperature, humidity and solar radiation). Seasons and weekend days were also included as independent variables. Non-parametric statistics were used throughout since most variables do not follow a normal distribution. Logistic regression models were applied to predict days with and without the clinical condition. Episodes of panic were three times more common with the poniente wind (hot wind), twice less often with rainfall, and one and a half times more common in autumn than in other seasons. These three trends (hot wind, rainfall and autumn) were accumulative for panic episodes in a logistic regression formula. Significant reduction of episodes on weekends was found only for non-panic episodes. Panic attacks, unlike other anxiety episodes, in a psychiatric emergency department in Barcelona seem to show significant meteorotropism. Assessing specific disorders instead of overall emergencies or other variables of a more general quality could shed new light on the relationship between weather conditions and behaviour.

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The complex topography and high climatic variability of the North Western Mediterranean Basin (NWMB) require a detailed assessment of climate change projections at high resolution. ECHAM5/MPIOM global climate projections for mid-21st century and three different emission scenarios are downscaled at 10 km resolution over the NWMB, using the WRF-ARW regional model. High resolution improves the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation climatologies, with Pearson's correlation against observation being higher for WRF-ARW (0.98 for temperature and 0.81 for precipitation) when compared to the ERA40 reanalysis (0.69 and 0.53, respectively). However, downscaled results slightly underestimate mean temperature (≈1.3 K) and overestimate the precipitation field (≈400 mm/year). Temperature is expected to raise in the NWMB in all considered scenarios (up to 1.4 K for the annual mean), and particularly during summertime and at high altitude areas. Annual mean precipitation is likely to decrease (around −5 % to −13 % for the most extreme scenarios). The climate signal for seasonal precipitation is not so clear, as it is highly influenced by the driving GCM simulation. All scenarios suggest statistically significant decreases of precipitation for mountain ranges in winter and autumn. High resolution simulations of regional climate are potentially useful to decision makers. Nevertheless, uncertainties related to seasonal precipitation projections still persist and have to be addressed.

If no well-defined synoptic pressure gradients exist over a basin, flows can develop at a variety of scales, the main generators of circulations being spatial thermal differences. These dynamics are studied for the eastern Ebro basin, at the north-eastern part of the Iberian Peninsula, almost isolated from the surrounding areas by mountain ranges. The main tool for the study is the new RASS-Sodar by Scintec, the WindRASS, which combines sound and radio waves to provide profiles of wind and virtual temperature up to 360 m above the ground in the present configuration. One year of operation shows that low-level jets are found routinely, their maximum speed being at a height below 500 m above ground level. The jets are from a constant direction for several hours over the whole observed column, with rapid transitions between these periods. They allow for efficient heat transport at the basin scale and are good producers of vertical mixing due to the strong wind shear. In summer the irrigated plain has larger thermal contrast with the dry slopes, and the winds are stronger than in winter, when katabatic flows can develop at night and usually radiation fog appears and may last for days.

Abstract. The benefit of having a daily synoptic weather type catalogue and even more, a detailed catalogue for high impact weather events is well recognised by both climatologist and meteorologist communities. In this way the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) has produced some accurate classifications for extreme events, such as hailstorms or strong winds (SW). Within the framework of the MEDEX project, the SMC has been collaborating to increase the level of awareness about these events. Following this line of work, the aim of this study is to characterise the SW events in Catalonia.According to the guidelines of the MEDEX project we worked with its SW event database for the period June 1995 to May 2004. We also used the period 2005-2009 to test the methodology. The methodology is based on principal component, cluster and discriminant analyses and applied to four variables: SLP, temperature at 850 hPa and geopotential at 500 hPa on a synoptic-scale and local gust wind. We worked with ERA-Interim reanalysis and applied discriminant analysis to test the quality of the methodology and to classify the events of the validation period.We found seven patterns for the SW events. The strongest event corresponds to NW-Flow with the Azores Anticyclone and the passing of a low pressure through the Pyrenees. This methodology has distinguished the summer events in an independent cluster. The results obtained encourage us to follow this line of work.