Projections of temperature and precipitation extremes in the North Western Mediterranean Basin by dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios at high resolution (1971–2050)

Barrera-Escoda, A.; Gonçalves, M.; Guerreiro, D.; Cunillera, Jordi; Baldasano, J. M.

doi:10.1007/s10584-013-1027-6

Cited by 40 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…The number and intensity of warm and very warm days and nights (daily maximum and minimum temperature exceed the percentiles 90th and 99th, respectively) during winter is also projected to increase during the next decades, more in the Pyrenees than the surroundings areas (López‐Moreno et al , ). Similar results found (an increase in temperature and a reduction in the number of frost days) were also obtained in the north western Mediterranean Basin, again highlighting importance of observational databases in these vulnerable and topographically complex areas (Barrera‐Escoda et al , ).…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 82%

Temperature and precipitation regional climate series over the central Pyrenees during 1910–2013

Pérez-Zañón

Sigrò

Ashcroft

2016

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Quality controlled homogenized regional anomaly series of temperature and precipitation are obtained for the central Pyrenees for the period 1910–2013. A 0.1 °C decade−1 positive trend is found for minimum and maximum annual temperature exceeding the significance level of 0.05 for the whole studied period. A significant warming is found in all seasons except boreal spring in minimum temperature and winter in maximum temperature. The annual regional precipitation anomaly series shows a high inter‐annual variability and a slightly negative non‐significant trend of −0.6% decade−1. Non‐significant negative trends of precipitation are found in all seasons for the whole period examined. Considering the recent period 1970–2013, values of temperature trends are generally higher than those obtained for the whole period. For this latest period, all maximum temperature trends are significant while only the minimum temperature trend in winter is non‐significant. Spring is the season that presents the greatest warming, with 0.9 °C decade−1 for maximum temperature and 0.4 °C decade−1 for minimum temperature. Evaluating the same period for precipitation anomalies, trends in the annual, winter and summer series remain negative, while spring and autumn trends are positive although non‐significant. This series represents the longest homogenized climate data set available for the central Pyrenees region, including the newly recovered period 1910–1949, offering new possibilities for climate analysis and paleoclimate proxy calibration.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 82%

Temperature and precipitation regional climate series over the central Pyrenees during 1910–2013

Pérez-Zañón

Sigrò

Ashcroft

2016

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Thus, the geographic variables (latitude, longitude and altitude) were investigated to govern the spatial distribution and variations in daily precipitation concentration across the MR. This result supports the assertion that spatial dimension of the areas and topography play an important role in shaping regional climate causing an uneven distribution of extreme events (Toreti et al ., ; Barrera‐Escoda et al ., ; Zheng et al ., ). Significant negative correlations were detectable between the number of rainy days and both CI and n or throughout the MR ( r = −0.50, r = −0.35, p < .05), respectively, so the higher rainfall concentrations are observed in the areas with fewer rainy days.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Spatiotemporal variability of daily precipitation concentration and its relationship to teleconnection patterns over the Mediterranean during 1975–2015

Mathbout

López-Bustins

Royé

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study has addressed the spatiotemporal distribution of the daily rainfall concentration and its relation to the teleconnection patterns across the Mediterranean (MR). Daily concentration index (CI) and the ordered n index ( nor) are used at annual time scale to reveal the statistical structure of precipitation across the MR based on 233 daily rainfall series for the period 1975–2015. Eight teleconnection patterns, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Mediterranean Oscillation (MO), Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO), Upper‐Level Mediterranean Oscillation index (ULMO), East Atlantic (EA) pattern, East Atlantic/West Russia (EATL/WRUS) pattern, Scandinavia (SCAND) pattern and Southern Oscillation (SO) at annual time scale are selected. The spatiotemporal patterns in precipitation concentration indices, annual precipitation and their teleconnections with previous large‐scale circulations are investigated. Results show a strong connection between the CI and the nor (r = 0.70, p < .05) which present the same relative areas of high and low concentration. The annual values range from 0.57 to 0.70 for CI and 0.49 to 0.71 for nor index which show a high daily precipitation concentration across the MR. Trend analysis demonstrated mostly significant increasing trends for both indices. This increase is mainly found in south France, northern coastlands of the Iberian Peninsula (IP), Greece and Tunisia. An inverse relationship between the number of rainy days and concentration indices is evident. Both of WeMO and MO can play an important role in modulating rainfall in the northwest Mediterranean. The positive EATL/WRUS phase is mainly connected with positive precipitation mean anomalies in the eastern Mediterranean and vice versa in the west. The high daily precipitation concentration values over south France, northeast Spain, Croatia and Tunisia are linked to the low values of WeMO and high values of EA. These results could pave the way for new possibilities regarding the projection of precipitation concentration and precipitation irregularity in downscaling techniques.

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“…The results indicate that simulations from WRF that generally capture reasonably well the drought temporal evolutions in all regions studied show reliable temporal correlations. These results are consistent with previous studies which found that different RCMs performed adequately drought characteristics in terms of drought indices such as the SPEI and the SPI [ Barrera‐Escoda et al , ; Maule et al , ] over different areas in Spain. Furthermore, we found that the results obtained by using downscaled fields outperform those from the driving data in terms of drought indices, the improvement being higher for the SPI than for the SPEI.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of WRF capability to detect dry and wet periods in Spain using drought indices

et al. 2017

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The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used to show the benefits provided by downscaled fields to detect and analyze wet and dry periods over a region with high precipitation variability such as Spain. We have analyzed the spatiotemporal behavior of two widely used drought indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), computed at 3 and 12 month time scales, which provide important information in an agricultural and water‐resource context. These two indices were computed from WRF outputs and compared with those calculated from observational (monthly precipitation and temperature databases of Spain, MOPREDAS and MOTEDAS) and from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re‐Analysis (ERA‐Interim) data sets. This evaluation was made by using a regional scale and a multistep regionalization method and by comparison of individual grid points. In general, results indicate that the drought indices obtained by using WRF outputs provide a noticeable improvement regarding those computed by using ERA‐Interim, higher at longer time scales. Although results show no significant differences between drought indices analyzed, the improvement offered by WRF is greater for SPI than for SPEI. In terms of averaged duration, magnitude, and severity of drought, the benefits provided by WRF are not so evident, presenting better agreement with the observational data at 12 month time scale, being clearer for the intensity. These findings evidence the benefit of using WRF climate fields to monitor, analyze, and detect drought events, being a valuable source of knowledge for a suitable decision making, especially for water‐resource management.

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Projections of temperature and precipitation extremes in the North Western Mediterranean Basin by dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios at high resolution (1971–2050)

Cited by 40 publications

References 42 publications

Temperature and precipitation regional climate series over the central Pyrenees during 1910–2013

Temperature and precipitation regional climate series over the central Pyrenees during 1910–2013

Spatiotemporal variability of daily precipitation concentration and its relationship to teleconnection patterns over the Mediterranean during 1975–2015

Evaluation of WRF capability to detect dry and wet periods in Spain using drought indices

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