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Research Summary In this study, we examine the interaction between race, gender, and risk assessment score on risk for recidivism. We used the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) to measure criminogenic risk among a sample of delinquent youth. The results of multivariate Cox regression revealed a significant interaction between race, gender, and risk score when predicting recidivism. The findings indicated that the slope of the relationship between risk score and recidivism differed significantly for Black youth as compared with White youth and that this interaction was even more pronounced for the subsample of males. These findings suggest that there may be social or other policy/enforcement‐related factors that increase risk for recidivism for Black youth. Policy Implications We found that although there were no differences in overall risk score across White and Black youth, Black males were at increased risk for future recidivism. These findings should inform practice and policies in four primary ways. First, court practitioners, like juvenile court officers and judges, should pay special attention to responsivity factors that may minimize barriers to treatment and success. Second, court officers and service providers should implement policies that require tracking how risk assessment information is used in the decision‐making process. Third, the use of reassessments to monitor changes in dynamic criminogenic risk is necessary. Finally, future research should be aimed at investigating the extent to which policies, practices, and enforcement moderate the validity of risk assessment tools across race and gender.

The assessment of criminogenic risk is critical in the prediction of future delinquency and the ability to provide appropriate services and interventions for youth offenders. The goal of this study was to determine whether using latent profile analysis (LPA) produced better risk classification profiles than traditional linear methods. Archival data were used to examine 1,263 male and female youth probationers. Criminogenic profiles were developed using the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory, a widely used juvenile risk assessment. LPA determined that there were three distinct profiles: Minimal Intervention Needs, Social Behavior and Social Bonding Needs, and Maximum Intervention Needs. The profiles that youth fit into differed across demographic variables such as gender, age, recidivism, and history of child maltreatment, but not minority status and offense type. This research may aid in addressing specific intervention needs of offenders.

This study examined the effect of neighborhood disadvantage and criminogenic risk on juvenile recidivism. The sample included 893 youths involved in the delinquency/formal probation division of one Midwestern county juvenile court between 2004 and 2010. Juveniles were classified into one of three neighborhood typologies (i.e., Distressed/Disadvantage, Resilient/Mixed, Benchmark/Advantaged) based on the socioeconomic conditions in their neighborhoods. Survival models revealed that when examining the effect of neighborhood type, youth who lived in Resilient/Mixed neighborhoods, characterized by having the most transient residents, yet high graduation rates, were at greatest risk of recidivism. However, neighborhood effects disappeared after controlling for sociodemographic characteristics and criminogenic risk. Although there was no significant interaction between neighborhood and risk group classification, there was a significant interaction between risk group, age, and gender. These findings suggest the need for advanced statistical models that can disentangle the conflated effects of socioeconomic conditions and sociodemographic characteristics.

Understanding the criminogenic risk factors and treatment needs of juvenile drug offenders is important because of the myriad negative outcomes that befall juveniles that are involved in drugs. A widely used juvenile risk assessment tool, the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) was utilized to explore criminogenic risk factors and treatment needs to predict recidivism. Demographic differences between drug and nondrug offenders were also examined. Results suggested that of the eight YLS/CMI domains, the substance abuse domain was not predictive of recidivism for juvenile drug offenders. However, peer relationships and attitudes significantly predicted future recidivism, suggesting that case planners should pay particular attention to these domains when designing a treatment plan for this group. Cox Regression Hazard Modeling was also used to estimate risk for recidivism among juvenile drug offenders as compared to other juvenile offenders. Results revealed that while juvenile drug offenders had a significantly higher score for substance use, they were not more likely to recidivate than nondrug offenders. Implications are discussed.

The Ohio Youth Assessment System-Disposition Tool (OYAS-DIS) is a juvenile risk assessment that is used in numerous states and jurisdictions to assess criminogenic risk of juvenile offenders. Still, there is little published research on the predictive validity of the tool. The purpose of the current study was to examine the predictive validity of OYAS-DIS, with a specific focus on understanding prediction of recidivism across racial and gender subgroups. The sample consisted of 4,383 youth that received a court petition in a single large Midwestern county juvenile court. The findings indicated that the OYAS-DIS was a statistically significant predictor of recidivism across all racial and gender subgroups. However, there was statistically significant variation in predictive validity across subgroups. For instance, the tool was a statistically significantly better predictor of recidivism for White males as compared to Black male youth. There was also statistically significant variation in the predictive validity of certain domains (e.g., juvenile justice history) on the OYAS-DIS across racial and gender subgroups. Implications of research favor the use of the OYAS-DIS to predict recidivism for adjudicated juveniles.

This study reexamines the collective security hypothesis of gun ownership using data collected from residents of the city of Detroit, Michigan. In addition, we seek to determine whether the effects of perceptions of police, fear of crime, and victimization on individual-level gun ownership are attenuated by neighborhood levels of informal social control. Our findings indicate that police satisfaction remains a robust predictor of gun ownership, in that those who are less satisfied with police are more likely to own a firearm for defensive purposes. Moreover, the effects of this variable remain unaffected by the inclusion of informal social control. These results confirm a number of previously identified correlates of gun ownership remain influential and suggest that improving perceptions of police among the public may lead to fewer firearms in circulation among the public.

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