Over the past century, many of the world's major rivers have been modified for the purposes of flood mitigation, power generation and commercial navigation. Engineering modifications to the Mississippi River system have altered the river's sediment levels and channel morphology, but the influence of these modifications on flood hazard is debated. Detecting and attributing changes in river discharge is challenging because instrumental streamflow records are often too short to evaluate the range of natural hydrological variability before the establishment of flood mitigation infrastructure. Here we show that multi-decadal trends of flood hazard on the lower Mississippi River are strongly modulated by dynamical modes of climate variability, particularly the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, but that the artificial channelization (confinement to a straightened channel) has greatly amplified flood magnitudes over the past century. Our results, based on a multi-proxy reconstruction of flood frequency and magnitude spanning the past 500 years, reveal that the magnitude of the 100-year flood (a flood with a 1 per cent chance of being exceeded in any year) has increased by 20 per cent over those five centuries, with about 75 per cent of this increase attributed to river engineering. We conclude that the interaction of human alterations to the Mississippi River system with dynamical modes of climate variability has elevated the current flood hazard to levels that are unprecedented within the past five centuries.

.[1] Along >4000 km of the Mississippi River system, we document that climate, land-use change, and river engineering have contributed to statistically significant increases in flooding over the past 100-150 years. Trends were tested using a database of >8 million hydrological measurements. A geospatial database of historical engineering construction was used to quantify the response of flood levels to each unit of engineering infrastructure. Significant climate-and/or land use-driven increases in flow were detected, but the largest and most pervasive contributors to increased flooding on the Mississippi River system were wing dikes and related navigational structures, followed by progressive levee construction. In the area of the 2008 Upper Mississippi flood, for example, about 2 m of the flood crest is linked to navigational and flood-control engineering. Systemwide, large increases in flood levels were documented at locations and at times of wing-dike and levee construction.

No abstract

In this investigation, four scenarios were used to quantify the balance between the benefits of levees for flood protection and their potential to increase flood risk using Hazards U.S. Multi-Hazard flood-loss software and hydraulic modeling of the Middle Mississippi River (MMR). The goals of this study were (1) to quantify the flood exposure under different flood-control configurations and (2) to assess the relative contributions of various engineered structures and flood-loss strategies to potential flood losses. Removing all the flood-control structures along the MMR, without buyouts or other mitigation, reduced the average flood stages between 2.3 m (100-year flood) and 2.5 m (500-year), but increased the potential flood losses by $4.3-6.7 billion. Removing the agricultural levees downstream of St. Louis decreased the flood stages through the metro region by *1.0 m for the 100-and 500-year events; flood losses, without buyouts or other mitigation, were increased by $155 million for the 100-year flood, but were decreased by $109 million for the 500-year flood. Thus, agricultural levees along the MMR protect against small-to medium-size floods (up to the *100-year flood level) but cause more damage than they prevent during large floods such as the 500-year flood. Buyout costs for the all the buildings within the 500-year floodplain downstream of urban flood-control structures near St. Louis are *40% less than the cost of repairing the buildings damaged by the 500-year flood. This suggests large-scale buyouts could be the most cost-effective option for flood loss mitigation for properties currently protected by agricultural levees.

No abstract

No abstract

The goal of this study was to construct a large, data-rich model to test hydrological responses to engineering modifications on over 3200 km of the Mississippi and Lower Missouri Rivers. We compiled model explanatory variables from a geospatial database quantifying construction of all bridges, wing dikes, bendway weirs, levees, artificial meander cutoffs, channel constriction and navigational dams over the past 100-150 years. Response variables were derived from 68 rated and un-rated hydrologic stations in the study area, with responses analysed across a range of discharges from within-channel flows up to moderate floods. Correlation analysis, multiple linear regression and stepwise regression analyses document strong and consistent responses to construction history, both in individual reach-scale models and systemwide. Meander cutoffs are associated with degradation and acceleration of flow that has reduced stages across the full discharge range. Navigational dams on the Upper Mississippi River increased low-flow stages and flood levels to a lesser extent, with little or no post-dam change. One of the strongest signals was the hydrologic response to wing-dike construction, which resulted in large back-water increases in stage upstream of wing dikes and mixed effects downstream, including the overlapping effects of incision and velocity losses. Levees were associated with local flow concentration, overbank storage loss and floodplain conveyance loss depending on reachscale conditions. The results presented here (1) quantify incremental and cumulative hydrologic responses to a range of engineering activities and (2) provide an empirical tool for verifying and assessing hydraulic and other models of river-system change.

No abstract