No abstract

Climate is of fundamental importance to the ecology and evolution of all organisms. However, studies of climate–organism interactions usually rely on climate variables interpolated from widely spaced measurements or modelled at coarse resolution, whereas the conditions experienced by many organisms vary over scales from millimetres to metres. To help bridge this mismatch in scale, we present models of the mechanistic processes that govern fine‐scale variation in near‐ground air temperature. The models are flexible (enabling application to a wide variety of locations and contexts), can be run using freely available data and are provided as an R package. We apply a mesoclimate model to the Lizard Peninsula in Cornwall to provide hourly estimates of air temperature at resolution of 100 m for the period Jan‐Dec 2010. A microclimate model is then applied to a 1 km2 region of the Lizard Peninsula, Caerthillean Valley (49.969°N, 5.215°W), to provide hourly estimates of near‐ground air temperature at resolution of 1 m2 during May 2010. Our models reveal substantial spatial variation in near‐ground temperatures, driven principally by variation in topography and, at the microscale, by vegetation structure. At the meso‐scale, hours of exposure to air temperatures at 1 m height in excess of 25°C ranged from 23 to 158 hr, despite this temperature never being recorded by the weather station within the study area during the study period. At the micro‐scale, steep south‐facing slopes with minimal vegetation cover experienced temperatures in excess of 40°C. The microclima package is flexible and efficient and provides an accurate means of modelling fine‐scale variation in temperature. We also provide functions that facilitate users to obtain and process a variety of freely available datasets needed to drive the model.

The cultivation of grapevines for winemaking, known as viticulture, is widely cited as a climate-sensitive agricultural system that has been used as an indicator of both historic and contemporary climate change. Numerous studies have questioned the viability of major Accepted ArticleThis article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.viticulture regions under future climate projections. We review the methods used to study the impacts of climate change on viticulture in the light of what is known about the effects of climate and weather on the yields and quality of vineyard harvests. Many potential impacts of climate change on viticulture, particularly those associated with a change in climate variability or seasonal weather patterns, are rarely captured. Key biophysical characteristics of viticulture are often unaccounted for, including the variability of grapevine phenology and the exploitation of microclimatic niches that permit successful cultivation under sub-optimal macroclimatic conditions. We consider how these same biophysical characteristics permit a variety of strategies by which viticulture can adapt to changing climatic conditions. The ability to realise these strategies, however, is affected by uneven exposure to risks across the winemaking sector, and the evolving capacity for decision-making within and across organizational boundaries. The role grape provenance plays in shaping perceptions of wine value and quality, illustrates how conflicts of interest influence decisions about adaptive strategies within the industry. We conclude by considering what lessons can be taken from viticulture for studies of climate change impacts and the capacity for adaptation in other agricultural and natural systems.

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids thus fail to reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions are controlled and most terrestrial species reside. Here we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km² resolution for 0-5 and 5-15 cm depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e., offset) between in-situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km² pixels (summarized from 8500 unique temperature sensors) across all of the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding 2 m gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (3.6 ± 2.3°C warmer than gridded air temperature), whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (0.7 ± 2.3°C cooler). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets underpin that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining global gaps by collecting more in-situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications.

The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions.