We examined the course of PTSD symptoms in a cohort of U.S. Marines (N = 867) recruited for the Marine Resiliency Study (MRS) from a single infantry battalion that deployed as a unit for 7 months to Afghanistan during the peak of conflict there. Data were collected via structured interviews and self-report questionnaires 1 month prior to deployment and again at 1, 5, and 8 months postdeployment. Second-order growth mixture modeling was used to disaggregate symptom trajectories; multinomial logistic regression and relative weights analysis were used to assess the role of combat exposure, prior life span trauma, social support, peritraumatic dissociation, and avoidant coping as predictors of trajectory membership. Three trajectories best fit the data: a low-stable symptom course (79%), a new-onset PTSD symptoms course (13%), and a preexisting PTSD symptoms course (8%). Comparison in a separate MRS cohort with lower levels of combat exposure yielded similar results, except for the absence of a new-onset trajectory. In the main cohort, the modal trajectory was a low-stable symptoms course that included a small but clinically meaningful increase in symptoms from predeployment to 1 month postdeployment. We found no trajectory of recovery from more severe symptoms in either cohort, suggesting that the relative change in symptoms from predeployment to 1 month postdeployment might provide the best indicator of first-year course. The best predictors of trajectory membership were peritraumatic dissociation and avoidant coping, suggesting that changes in cognition, perception, and behavior following trauma might be particularly useful indicators of first-year outcomes.
Large cohort studies suggest that most military personnel experience minimal posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms following warzone deployment, an outcome often labeled resilience. Very low symptom levels, however, may be a marker for low exposure, not resilience, which requires relatively high-magnitude or high-frequency stress exposure as a precondition. We used growth mixture modeling (GMM) to examine the longitudinal course of lifetime PTSD symptoms following combat exposure by disaggregating deployed U.S. Marines into upper, middle, and lower tertiles of combat exposure. All factor models fit the data well; Tucker-Lewis Index (TLI) and comparative fit index (CFI) values ranged from .91 to .97. Three distinct trajectories best explained the data within each tertile. The upper tertile comprised True Resilience (73.2%), New-Onset Symptoms (18.3%), and Pre-existing Symptoms (8.5%) trajectories. The middle tertile also comprised True Resilience (74.5%), New-Onset Symptoms (16.1%), and Pre-existing Symptoms (9.4%) trajectories. The lower tertile comprised Artifactual Resilience (86.3%), Pre-existing Symptoms (7.6%), and New-Onset Symptoms (6.1%) trajectories. True Resilience involved a clinically significant symptom increase followed by a return to baseline, whereas Artifactual Resilience involved consistently low symptoms. Conflating artifactual and true resilience may inaccurately create the expectation of persistently low symptoms regardless of warzone exposure.
The temporal consistency and convergence demonstrated by our analyses underscores the validity of the 5-factor model among service members exposed to warzone stressors. In particular, the findings suggest that diagnostic criteria for PTSD may benefit from disaggregating hyperarousal symptoms in military samples.
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