Predation by brown tree snakes (   Boiga irregularis ) devastated the avifauna of Guam in the Mariana Islands during the last half of the twentieth century, causing the extirpation or serious reduction of most of the island's 25 resident bird species. Past studies have provided qualitative descriptions of the decline of native forest birds but have not considered all species or presented quantitative analyses. We analyzed two sets of survey data gathered in northern Guam between 1976 and 1998 and reviewed unpublished sources to provide a comprehensive account of the impact of brown tree snakes on the island's birds. Our results indicate that 22 species, including 17 of 18 native species, were severely affected by snakes. Twelve species were likely extirpated as breeding residents on the main island, 8 others experienced declines of ≥90% throughout the island or at least in the north, and 2 were kept at reduced population levels during all or much of the study. Declines of ≥90% occurred rapidly, averaging just 8.9 years along three roadside survey routes combined and 1.6 years at a 100‐ha forested study site. Declines in northern Guam were also relatively synchronous and occurred from about 1976 to 1986 for most species. The most important factor predisposing a species to coexistence with brown tree snakes was its ability to nest and roost at locations where snakes were uncommon. Large clutch size and large body size were also related to longer persistence times, although large body size appeared to delay, but not prevent, extirpation. Our results draw attention to the enormous detrimental impact that brown tree snakes are likely to have upon invading new areas. Increased containment efforts on Guam are needed to prevent further colonizations, but a variety of additional management efforts would also benefit the island's remaining bird populations.

Statistical methods for estimating and comparing constant survival rates are developed here for sampling designs in which survival of a subject is checked at irregular intervals. The maximum likelihood estimator is derived and shown to be readily calculated using an iterative procedure that starts with the Mayfield (1975) estimate as a trial value. Sampling distributions of this estimator and of the product of two or more estimates are skewed, and normalizing transformations are provided to facilitate valid confidence interval estimation. The sampling distribution of the difference between two independent estimates is found to be sufficiently normal without transformation to allow valid use of conventional normal theory procedures for testing differences and determining sample size for specified power. Statistical validity under the variable intensity sampling design does require that the duration of intervisit periods vary independently of observer perceptions concerning the survival status of the subject and, in order to achive robustness with respect to the assumption of constant survivorship, sampling intensity must vary independently of any temporal changes in the daily survival rate. Investigators are warned not to return earlier than planned to subjects thought to have died, as this observer behavior may cause serious bias in the survivorship estimate.

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In late 1987 cattle were removed from the San Pedro Riparian National Conservation Area ( NCA ) in southeastern Arizona ( U.S.A. ). We monitored vegetation density and abundance of birds during the breeding season during 1986–1990 in riparian, mesquite grassland, and Chihuahuan desert‐scrub communities in the NCA. The density of herbaceous vegetation increased four‐ to six‐fold in riparian and mesquite grassland communities. Little change occurred in herbaceous vegetation in desert scrub, or in the density of shrubs or trees in any of the communities. Of 61 bird species for which sufficient data were collected, mean detections per kilometer increased for 42 species, 26 significantly, and decreased for 19 species, 8 significantly. The number of individuals of all avian species detected on surveys increased each year from 103/kilometer in 1986 to 221/kilometer in 1991, an average annual increase of 23% ( p < 0.001 ). The largest increases occurred in riparian species, open‐cup nesters, Neotropical migrants, and insectivores. Species of the Chihuahuan desert‐scrub, in which vegetation changed the least, showed the smallest increases. Only a few of the species showed increasing regional trends for the same period, as demonstrated by the North American Breeding Bird Survey; thus, increases on the San Pedro Riparian NCA were likely caused by the change in local conditions, not by regional effects. Our results suggest that removing cattle from riparian areas in the southwestern United States can have profound benefits for breeding birds.

Individual‐based population models are beginning to have substantial influence in conservation biology. One of the dangers of such models is that their reliability may be poorly understood, and generally over‐estimated. To help avoid this problem a set of guidelines is suggested here for evaluating individual‐based models. Major components of the evaluation include a description of the model and estimates of the reliability of its predictions. The description should include detailed explanations of the model's purpose(s), its structure, and the assumptions it makes. Analyses of reliability at four levels may be useful: structural assumptions, parameter values, secondary predictions of the model, and primary predictions of the model. The guidelines also recommend that "best‐" and "worst‐case" scenarios, intended to span the range of plausible outcomes, be prepared using the model, rather than presenting single predictions or conclusions. I argue that results from such an evaluation should be prepared and peer reviewed before the model is used to make or defend management decisions.