New biological models are incorporating the realistic processes underlying biological responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances. However, these more realistic models require detailed information, which is lacking for most species on Earth. Current monitoring efforts mainly document changes in biodiversity, rather than collecting the mechanistic data needed to predict future changes. We describe and prioritize the biological information needed to inform more realistic projections of species' responses to climate change. We also highlight how trait-based approaches and adaptive modeling can leverage sparse data to make broader predictions. We outline a global effort to collect the data necessary to better understand, anticipate, and reduce the damaging effects of climate change on biodiversity.

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Forest trees are the dominant species in many parts of the world and predicting how they might respond to climate change is a vital global concern. Trees are capable of long-distance gene flow, which can promote adaptive evolution in novel environments by increasing genetic variation for fitness. It is unclear, however, if this can compensate for maladaptive effects of gene flow and for the long-generation times of trees. We critically review data on the extent of long-distance gene flow and summarise theory that allows us to predict evolutionary responses of trees to climate change. Estimates of long-distance gene flow based both on direct observations and on genetic methods provide evidence that genes can move over spatial scales larger than habitat shifts predicted under climate change within one generation. Both theoretical and empirical data suggest that the positive effects of gene flow on adaptation may dominate in many instances. The balance of positive to negative consequences of gene flow may, however, differ for leading edge, core and rear sections of forest distributions. We propose future experimental and theoretical research that would better integrate dispersal biology with evolutionary quantitative genetics and improve predictions of tree responses to climate change.

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Most eukaryotic organisms are arthropods. Yet, their diversity in rich terrestrial ecosystems is still unknown. Here we produce tangible estimates of the total species richness of arthropods in a tropical rainforest. Using a comprehensive range of structured protocols, we sampled the phylogenetic breadth of arthropod taxa from the soil to the forest canopy in the San Lorenzo forest, Panama. We collected 6144 arthropod species from 0.48 hectare and extrapolated total species richness to larger areas on the basis of competing models. The whole 6000-hectare forest reserve most likely sustains 25,000 arthropod species. Notably, just 1 hectare of rainforest yields >60% of the arthropod biodiversity held in the wider landscape. Models based on plant diversity fitted the accumulated species richness of both herbivore and nonherbivore taxa exceptionally well. This lends credence to global estimates of arthropod biodiversity developed from plant models.M ost eukaryote species are terrestrial arthropods (1), and most terrestrial arthropods occur in tropical rainforests (2). However, considerably greater sampling effort is required in tropical arthropod surveys to yield realistic estimates of global species richness (3-7). A basic hindrance to estimating global biodiversity lies in a lack of empirical data that establish local biodiversity, which can be scaled up to achieve a global estimate.Although many studies reported species richness for selected groups of well-studied insect taxa, no satisfactory estimate of total arthropod species richness exists for a single tropical rainforest location to date.The unstructured collection and small-scale survey of tropical arthropods cannot yield convincing estimates of total species richness at a specific forest (7-9). Most studies either target few arthropod orders or trophic guilds, or use a limited array of sampling methods, or ignore the diverse upper canopy regions of tropical forests (10-15). Moreover, sampling protocols have rarely been structured in such a way that, with increased sampling, incomplete data on local diversity (7) can be extrapolated to estimate total species richness across multiple spatial scales (16). Where such structured estimates are made, it is invariably for insect herbivores on their host plants (5). However, species accumulation rates may differ markedly for nonherbivore guilds, which include more than half of all described arthropod species (1, 17). As the degree of host specificity (effective specialization) of other guilds can be much lower than that of insect herbivores, or may be driven by different factors (18,19), global estimates based on herbivores alone are questionable. Consequently, extensive cross-taxon surveys with structured protocols at reference sites may be the only effective approach toward estimating total arthropod species richness in tropical forests (3).To provide a comprehensive estimate of total arthropod species richness in a tropical rainforest, we established a collaboration involving 102 researchers with expertise encom...

All species are restricted in their distribution. Currently, ecological models can only explain such limits if patches vary in quality, leading to asymmetrical dispersal, or if genetic variation is too low at the margins for adaptation. However, population genetic models suggest that the increase in genetic variance resulting from dispersal should allow adaptation to almost any ecological gradient. Clearly therefore, these models miss something that prevents evolution in natural populations. We developed an individual-based simulation to explore stochastic effects in these models. At high carrying capacities, our simulations largely agree with deterministic predictions. However, when carrying capacity is low, the population fails to establish for a wide range of parameter values where adaptation was expected from previous models. Stochastic or transient effects appear critical around the boundaries in parameter space between simulation behaviours. Dispersal, gradient steepness, and population density emerge as key factors determining adaptation on an ecological gradient.

Interspecific hybridization and polyploidy are pivotal processes in plant evolution and speciation. The fate of new hybrid and polyploid taxa is determined by their ability to reproduce either sexually or asexually. Hybrids and allopolyploids with odd chromosome numbers are frequently sterile but some establish themselves through asexual reproduction (vegetative or apomixis). This allows novel genotypes to become established by isolating them from gene flow and leads to complex patterns of variation. The genus Sorbus is a good example of taxonomic complexity arising from the combined effects of hybridization, polyploidy and apomixis. The Avon Gorge in South-west Britain contains the greatest diversity of Sorbus in Europe, with three endemic species and four putative endemic novel hybrids among its 15 native Sorbus taxa. We used a combination of nuclear microsatellite and chloroplast DNA markers to investigate the evolutionary relationships among these Sorbus taxa within the Avon Gorge. We confirm the genetic identity of putative novel taxa and show that hybridization involving sexual diploid species, primarily S. aria and S. torminalis and polyploid facultative apomictic species from subgenus Aria, has been responsible for generating this biodiversity. Importantly our data show that this creative evolutionary process is ongoing within the Avon Gorge. Conservation strategies for the rare endemic Sorbus taxa should therefore consider all Sorbus taxa within the Gorge and must strive to preserve this evolutionary process rather than simply the individual rare taxa that it produces.

A hybrid zone between the grasshoppers Chorthippus brunneus and C. jacobsi (Orthoptera: Acrididae) in northern Spain has been analyzed for variation in morphology and ecology. These species are readily distinguished by the number of stridulatory pegs on the hind femur. Both sexes are fully winged and inhabit disturbed habitats throughout the study area. We develop a maximum‐likelihood approach to fitting a two‐dimensional cline to geographical variation in quantitative traits and for estimating associations of population mean with local habitat. This method reveals a cline in peg number approximately 30 km south of the Picos de Europa Mountains that shows substantial deviations in population mean compared with the expectations of simple tension zone models. The inclusion of variation in local vegetation in the model explains a significant proportion of the residual variation in peg number, indicating that habitat‐genotype associations contribute to the observed spatial pattern. However, this association is weak, and a number of populations continue to show strong deviations in mean even after habitat is included in the final model. These outliers may be the result of long‐distance colonization of sites distant from the cline center or may be due to a patchy pattern of initial contact during postglacial expansion. As well as contrasting with the smooth hybrid zones described for Chorthippus parallelus, this situation also contrasts with the mosaic hybrid zones observed in Gryllus crickets and in parts of the hybrid zone between Bombina toad species, where habitat‐genotype associations account for substantial amounts of among‐site variation.