Forest trees are the dominant species in many parts of the world and predicting how they might respond to climate change is a vital global concern. Trees are capable of long-distance gene flow, which can promote adaptive evolution in novel environments by increasing genetic variation for fitness. It is unclear, however, if this can compensate for maladaptive effects of gene flow and for the long-generation times of trees. We critically review data on the extent of long-distance gene flow and summarise theory that allows us to predict evolutionary responses of trees to climate change. Estimates of long-distance gene flow based both on direct observations and on genetic methods provide evidence that genes can move over spatial scales larger than habitat shifts predicted under climate change within one generation. Both theoretical and empirical data suggest that the positive effects of gene flow on adaptation may dominate in many instances. The balance of positive to negative consequences of gene flow may, however, differ for leading edge, core and rear sections of forest distributions. We propose future experimental and theoretical research that would better integrate dispersal biology with evolutionary quantitative genetics and improve predictions of tree responses to climate change.

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The dataset presented here was collected by the GenTree project (EU-Horizon 2020), which aims to improve the use of forest genetic resources across Europe by better understanding how trees adapt to their local environment. This dataset of individual tree-core characteristics including ring-width series and whole-core wood density was collected for seven ecologically and economically important European tree species: silver birch (Betula pendula), European beech (Fagus sylvatica), Norway spruce (Picea abies), European black poplar (Populus nigra), maritime pine (Pinus pinaster), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), and sessile oak (Quercus petraea). Tree-ring width measurements were obtained from 3600 trees in 142 populations and whole-core wood density was measured for 3098 trees in 125 populations. This dataset covers most of the geographical and climatic range occupied by the selected species. The potential use of it will be highly valuable for assessing ecological and evolutionary responses to environmental conditions as well as for model development and parameterization, to predict adaptability under climate change scenarios.

Patterns of pollen dispersal were investigated in a small, isolated, relict population of Pinus sylvestris L., consisting of 36 trees. A total-exclusion battery comprising four chloroplast and two nuclear microsatellites (theoretical paternity exclusion probability EP ¼ 0.996) was used to assign paternity to 813 seeds, collected from 34 trees in the stand. Longdistance pollen immigration accounted for 4.3% of observed matings. Self-fertilization rate was very high (0.25), compared with typical values in more widespread populations of the species. The average effective pollen dispersal distance within the stand was 48 m (or 83 m excluding selfs). Half of effective pollen was dispersed within 11 m, and 7% beyond 200 m. A strong correlation was found between the distance to the closest tree and the mean mating-distance calculated for single-tree progenies. The effective pollen dispersal distribution showed a leptokurtic shape, with a large and significant departure from that expected under uniform dispersal. A maximum-likelihood procedure was used to fit an individual pollen dispersal distance probability density function (dispersal kernel). The estimated kernel indicated fairly leptokurtic dispersal (shape parameter b ¼ 0.67), with an average pollen dispersal distance of 135 m, and 50% of pollen dispersed beyond 30 m. A marked directionality pattern of pollen dispersal was found, mainly caused by the uneven distribution of trees, coupled with restricted dispersal and unequal male success. Overall, results show that the number and distribution of potential pollen donors in small populations may strongly influence the patterns of effective pollen dispersal. Heredity (2005) 94, 13-22.

Outcrossing rate, the rates of ovule and seed abortion, and levels of correlated paternity were estimated in a small population of Pinus sylvestris, a predominantly outcrossing conifer, and were compared with estimates from two widely dispersed woodlands of the same species, showing a range of densities. On average, seed trees of the small population showed an eight-fold higher selfing rate (25 vs. 3%) and a 100-fold greater incidence of correlated paternity (19.6 vs. 0.2%) than did trees from the large populations. No evidence was found of pollen limitation within the remnant stand, as suggested by ovule abortion rates. Investigation of the mating patterns in the small population, based on the unambiguous genealogy of 778 open-pollinated seeds, showed a large departure from random mating. Only 8% of the possible mating pairs within the stand were observed. Correlated paternity rate within a maternal sibship was negatively associated (rs = -0.398, P < 0.050) with the distance to the nearest neighbour, and shared paternity among maternal sibships was negatively correlated (rs = -0.704, P < 0.001) with the distance between seed trees. Numerical simulations, based on the estimated individual pollen dispersal kernel, suggest that restricted dispersal might have been the key factor affecting mating patterns in the small population and, together with low population density, may account for the observed mating system variation between the small and the large populations. The results of this study show that a severe size reduction may substantially affect the mating system of a wind-pollinated, typically outcrossed plant species.

We introduce a novel indirect method of estimating the pollen dispersal curve from mother-offspring genotypic data. Unlike an earlier indirect approach (TwoGener), this method is based on a normalized measure of correlated paternity between female pairs whose expectation does not explicitly depend on the unknown effective male population density (d e ). We investigate the statistical properties of the new method, by comparison with those of TwoGener, considering the sensitivity to reductions of d e , relative to census density, resulting from unequal male fecundity and asynchronous flowering. Our main results are: (i) it is possible to obtain reliable estimates of the average distance of pollen dispersal, d, from indirect methods, even under nonuniform male fecundity and variable flowering phenology; (ii) the new method yields more accurate and more precise d-estimates than TwoGener under a wide range of sampling and flowering scenarios; and (iii) TwoGener can be used to obtain approximate d e estimates, if needed for other purposes. Our results also show that accurately estimating the shape of the tail of the pollen dispersal function by means of indirect methods remains a very difficult challenge.

Aim This work investigates the population genetic effects of periodic altitudinal migrations and interstadial fragmentation episodes in long-term Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) populations at a regional scale.Location The study focuses on Scots pine populations in the northern Meseta and peripheral mountain chains, central and north-western Iberian Peninsula. The ample macrofossil record in the area shows that this 60,000-km 2 region represent a glacial refugium for Scots pine. The species occupied large areas on the Meseta plains during glacial cold stages, but it has periodically sheltered at high elevation in the surrounding mountain chains during warm episodes, conforming to a fragmented pattern similar to its present-day distribution.Methods We perform a fine-scale chloroplast microsatellite (cpSSR) survey to assess the genetic structure of 13 montane Scots pine isolates in the northern Meseta (total N ¼ 322 individuals). Using a hierarchical analysis of molecular variance (amova), we test the hypothesis of genetic isolation among disjunct mountain areas. We use a standard coalescence model to estimate genealogical relationship among populations, investigating the potential role of the regional relief as a factor influencing historic gene exchange among Scots pine populations.Results Population haplotypic diversity was high among Scots pine populations (H e ¼ 0.978), greater than values reported for other more thermophilic pine species in the Iberian Peninsula. The amova revealed low (but significant) differentiation among populations (U ST ¼ 0.031, P ¼ 0.010), showed that the disjoint montane distribution could not account for the genetic divergence among areas (U CT ¼ 0.012, P ¼ 0.253), and that there was non-trivial subdivision among populations within the same mountain region (U SC ¼ 0.021, P ¼ 0.012). The genealogical relationships among populations showed that Scots pine isolates growing on disjoint mountain blocks, but on slopes flowing to the same basin, were genetically closer than populations growing on different slopes of the same mountain chain, flowing to different basins. Main conclusionsThe observed genetic structure for Scots pine is consistent with its population history, inferred from the palaeobotanical record, with vertical migrations throughout climatic pulses and with the drainage basins and large long-term population sizes connecting different mountain blocks during the cooler glacial periods. Overall, the results suggest that, despite periodic interstadial fragmentation episodes, Scots pine biology provides for the longterm maintenance of high within-population and low among-population genetic diversity at neutral genetic markers.

The exact identification of individual seed sources through genetic analysis of seed tissue of maternal origin has recently brought the full analytical potential of parentage analysis to the study of seed dispersal. No specific statistical methodology has been described so far, however, for estimation of the dispersal kernel function from categorical maternity assignment. In this study, we introduce a maximum-likelihood procedure to estimate the seed dispersal kernel from exact identification of seed sources. Using numerical simulations, we show that the proposed method, unlike other approaches, is independent of seed fecundity variation, yielding accurate estimates of the shape and range of the seed dispersal kernel under varied sampling and dispersal conditions. We also demonstrate how an obvious estimator of the dispersal kernel, the maximum-likelihood fit of the observed distribution of dispersal distances to seed traps, can be strongly biased due to the spatial arrangement of seed traps relative to source plants. Finally, we illustrate the use of the proposed method with a previously published empirical example for the animal-dispersed tree species Prunus mahaleb.