This article examines whether Eastern enlargement has led the EU 15 member states to enter strategic interactions implying a race to the bottom. The question is whether concerns about welfare migration have led to downward pressure on the EU 15 member states in the form of more restrictive access to their labour markets and adjustments of their social policy benefits. We find little empirical evidence to support the asumption that welfare states with generous benefits and accessible labour markets will become magnets for welfare migration. Nevertheless, the study demonstrates that the EU 15 member states do enter strategic interactions as if such migration would occur. The majority of them have temporarily restricted the free movement of workers from the acceding countries. EU 15 member states with the least restrictions are the ones most active in adjusting their social policies. Strategic interactions in social policy may thus intensify in the future as transitional periods come to an end and future enlargements come into place.

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This article uses a new method for policy analysis, fuzzy-set theory, which is a framework that allows for a precise operationalization of theoretical concepts. Fuzzy-set theory is used to assess the conformity of the Nordic countries to a pre-conceptualized idealtypical Nordic welfare model. This permits us to assess recent welfare reform and judge whether changes are of a qualitative or quantitative nature, i.e. whether reform amounts to differences in kind or degree. Comparing the development of benefits in kind and cash within three welfare areas (families, the unemployed and the elderly) during the 1990s and across the Nordic countries gives us an opportunity to assess patterns of welfare reform. The patterns of welfare reform are complex, but fuzzy-set theory permits the study of diversity. Despite numerous changes, all the countries still belong to the Nordic welfare model, although to varying degrees. Generally, Finland and Sweden have implemented more cut-backs than Denmark and Norway, and all countries have both expanded and contracted welfare programmes. Resilience at the national level thus masks a differential development between welfare areas and within welfare programmes. Tentatively, it seems that welfare policies operate within upper and lower limits which in turn are likely to vary over long time periods and among different types of welfare states; the most generous programmes are liable to cutbacks and the least generous programmes to improvements. Résumé Cette article recoure à une nouvelle méthode pour guider une analyse politique, la théorie des 'ensembles flous' (fuzzy-set). Cette dernière constitue une démarche particulière-ment adaptée lorsque l'on souhaite rendre opérationnel des concepts théoriques. Cette théorie est utilisée ici pour évaluer la conformité des pays nordiques à l'idéal-type du modèle social Nordique. Cela nous permet d'apprécier les réformes sociales récentes et de juger si ces changements sont de nature qualitative ou quantitative, c'est-à-dire si ces réformes reflètent des différences en termes de types de modèle social ou en termes de niveaux de réalisation. La comparaison de l'augmentation des avantages en nature et en espèces pour trois catégories (les familles, les demandeurs d'emploi et les personnes âgées) au cours des années 1990 au sein des différentes pays nordiques nous offre l'occasion d'évaluer la tendance des réformes sociales. Ces dernières sont complexes, mais la théorie des 'ensembles flous' permet d'étudier leur diversité. En dépit du nombre de changements, tous les pays participent encore du modèle social nordique bien que ce soit de manière plus ou moins franche. D'une façon générale, si la Finlande et la Suède ont opéré davantage de coupes que le Danemark et la Norvège, tous les pays ont engagé des programmes sociaux plus étendus qu'auparavant. Les différences au niveau national reflètent ainsi des évolutions différentes entre catégories et au sein des programmes sociaux. Ainsi, il apparaît que les politiques sociales opèrent dans certaines limites ...

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The Nordic welfare model is undergoing a fundamental transformation. Using Denmark we show how a universal welfare state model is gradually being transformed into an emergent multi-tiered welfare state. Whereas the Danish pension system's having become multi-tiered in the 1990s, with private schemes -collective and individual -supplementing public schemes is well documented, scant attention has focused on more recent developments in other areas of the welfare state. This article shows how the multi-tiered welfare state spread in the 2000s to policies for families, the unemployed and the sick. Although Denmark still offers universal coverage in core welfare state areas, the increased use of occupational and fiscal welfare as well as changes in public schemes has gradually transformed the nation into a multi-tiered welfare state that is more dualistic and individualistic, with participation in the labour market becoming still more important for entitlement to benefits. These profound changes have taken place in such a way that although core characteristics are still in place, new structures and understandings of the welfare state are also developing. Thus classical typologies need revision, so that they include more focus on this combination of universality and institutional attachment to the labour market. Moreover, measures of what welfare comprises should include not only public but also private elements.