Comparative phylogeography has proved useful for investigating biological responses to past climate change and is strongest when combined with extrinsic hypotheses derived from the fossil record or geology. However, the rarity of species with sufficient, spatially explicit fossil evidence restricts the application of this method. Here, we develop an alternative approach in which spatial models of predicted species distributions under serial paleoclimates are compared with a molecular phylogeography, in this case for a snail endemic to the rainforests of North Queensland, Australia. We also compare the phylogeography of the snail to those from several endemic vertebrates and use consilience across all of these approaches to enhance biogeographical inference for this rainforest fauna. The snail mtDNA phylogeography is consistent with predictions from paleoclimate modeling in relation to the location and size of climatic refugia through the late Pleistocene-Holocene and broad patterns of extinction and recolonization. There is general agreement between quantitative estimates of population expansion from sequence data (using likelihood and coalescent methods) vs. distributional modeling. The snail phylogeography represents a composite of both common and idiosyncratic patterns seen among vertebrates, reflecting the geographically finer scale of persistence and subdivision in the snail. In general, this multifaceted approach, combining spatially explicit paleoclimatological models and comparative phylogeography, provides a powerful approach to locating historical refugia and understanding species' responses to them. P hylogeography seeks to reveal biogeographical history of species and the habitats they occupy via (i) qualitative spatial association of divisions between monophyletic clusters of alleles with biogeographic barriers, and (ii) quantitative estimates of historical population size (1-4). Much of this work has focused on mitochondrial DNA; however, stochastic variance limits our confidence in reconstructions of history from a single gene. One approach solving this limitation is to sample more genes (5). A more common approach is comparative phylogeography (6) in which sequence variation is surveyed at a single gene for multiple species across the same landscape. A limitation here is that histories of local extinction and recolonization may vary among species despite a common history of habitat fluctuation.To improve inference of historical biogeography, we need to incorporate spatially explicit evidence from paleoecology into interpretation of species' phylogeography. Some recent studies have promoted the use of fossil evidence along with phylogeography to estimate historical distributions (7) or have examined sequence variation in the fossils themselves (e.g., refs. 8 and 9) However, appropriate fossils are sparse or nonexistent for most taxa. We explore a novel and more widely applicable approach that uses paleoclimatological models of species' distributions in conjunction with phylogeography.

Prioritizing areas for conservation requires the use of surrogates for assessing overall patterns of biodiversity. Effective surrogates will reflect general biogeographical patterns and the evolutionary processes that have given rise to these and their efficiency is likely to be influenced by several factors, including the spatial scale of species turnover and the overall congruence of the biogeographical history. We examine patterns of surrogacy for insects, snails, one family of plants and vertebrates from rainforests of northeast Queensland, an area characterized by high endemicity and an underlying history of climate-induced vicariance. Nearly all taxa provided some level of prediction of the conservation values for others. However, despite an overall correlation of the patterns of species richness and complementarity, the efficiency of surrogacy was highly asymmetric; snails and insects were strong predictors of conservation priorities for vertebrates, but not vice versa. These results confirm predictions that taxon surrogates can be effective in highly diverse tropical systems where there is a strong history of vicariant biogeography, but also indicate that correlated patterns for species richness and/or complementarity do not guarantee that one taxon will be efficient as a surrogate for another. In our case, the highly diverse and narrowly distributed invertebrates were more efficient as predictors than the less diverse and more broadly distributed vertebrates.

From an analysis of over 900 specimens of camaenid land snails, we have assembled a molecular phylogeny of 327 tips covering > 70% genera across the entire continent of Australia and including > 90% of eastern species. Our approach emphasizes sampling to identify lineage flocks from populations down to build a hierarchical gene-bytaxa tapestry or supermatrix dataset using three mitochondrial genes, then analysed with Markov chain Monte Carlo and fast maximum likelihood methods. Similarity amongst taxa set results suggests missing data cause only minor distortions. This is supplemented by a separate higher level 28S rDNA phylogeny for a global scale perspective. The shallow divergence of Australasian forms, and their nesting within South-East Asian groups within the Helicoidea supergroup extending from Europe to North America, is consistent with the Solem hypothesis of Laurasian immigration of c. Miocene origin, and so being more than 400 species in 80-plus genera spread across the continent of Australia from rainforest to desert, forms an immense radiation. There is a major distinction between eastern and western lineages, with some key exceptions. Finer scale patterns of relictual endemics indicate that many ancestral lineages were in place before the major decline and breakup of the Tertiary mesic forest realm that once dominated Gondwanan Australia, and so chart the phylogenetic turnover of ecosystem change from mesic to xeric. The various higher classification schemes proposed all founder on the sheer scale of this radiation. Of 30 polytypic genera tested, at least 18 are not monophyletic, highlighting (1) the repeated radiation of shell forms, and (2) that the current higher taxonomy is unacceptable. Here we provide a phylogenetic and biogeographically condign arrangement as the basis for future elaborations.