. Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Á/ Ecography 29: 129 Á/151.Prediction of species' distributions is central to diverse applications in ecology, evolution and conservation science. There is increasing electronic access to vast sets of occurrence records in museums and herbaria, yet little effective guidance on how best to use this information in the context of numerous approaches for modelling distributions. To meet this need, we compared 16 modelling methods over 226 species from 6 regions of the world, creating the most comprehensive set of model comparisons to date. We used presence-only data to fit models, and independent presence-absence data to evaluate the predictions. Along with well-established modelling methods such as generalised additive models and GARP and BIOCLIM, we explored methods that either have been developed recently or have rarely been applied to modelling species' distributions. These include machine-learning methods and community models, both of which have features that may make them particularly well suited to noisy or sparse information, as is typical of species' occurrence data. Presence-only data were effective for modelling species' distributions for many species and regions. The novel methods consistently outperformed more established methods. The results of our analysis are promising for the use of data from museums and herbaria, especially as methods suited to the noise inherent in such data improve. J. Elith

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Biodiversity hotspots, representing regions with high species endemism and conservation threat, have been mapped globally. Yet, biodiversity distribution data from within hotspots are too sparse for effective conservation in the face of rapid environmental change. Using frogs as indicators, ecological niche models under paleoclimates, and simultaneous Bayesian analyses of multispecies molecular data, we compare alternative hypotheses of assemblage-scale response to late Quaternary climate change. This reveals a hotspot within the Brazilian Atlantic forest hotspot. We show that the southern Atlantic forest was climatically unstable relative to the central region, which served as a large climatic refugium for neotropical species in the late Pleistocene. This sets new priorities for conservation in Brazil and establishes a validated approach to biodiversity prediction in other understudied, species-rich regions.

We provide a century-scale view of small-mammal responses to global warming, without confounding effects of land-use change, by repeating Grinnell's early-20th century survey across a 3000-meter-elevation gradient that spans Yosemite National Park, California, USA. Using occupancy modeling to control for variation in detectability, we show substantial ( approximately 500 meters on average) upward changes in elevational limits for half of 28 species monitored, consistent with the observed approximately 3 degrees C increase in minimum temperatures. Formerly low-elevation species expanded their ranges and high-elevation species contracted theirs, leading to changed community composition at mid- and high elevations. Elevational replacement among congeners changed because species' responses were idiosyncratic. Though some high-elevation species are threatened, protection of elevation gradients allows other species to respond via migration.

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Conservation planning has tended to focus more on pattern (representation) than process (persistence) and, for the former, has emphasized species and ecosystem or community diversity over genetic diversity. Here I consider how best to incorporate knowledge of evolutionary processes and the distribution of genetic diversity into conservation planning and priority setting for populations within species and for biogeographic areas within regions. Separation of genetic diversity into two dimensions, one concerned with adaptive variation and the other with neutral divergence caused by isolation, highlights different evolutionary processes and suggests alternative strategies for conservation. Planning for both species and areas should emphasize protection of historically isolated lineages (Evolutionarily Significant Units) because these cannot be recovered. By contrast, adaptive features may best be protected by maintaining the context for selection, heterogeneous landscapes, and viable populations, rather than protecting specific phenotypes. A useful strategy may be to (1) identify areas that are important to represent species and (vicariant) genetic diversity and (2) maximize within these areas the protection of contiguous environmental gradients across which selection and migration can interact to maintain population viability and (adaptive) genetic diversity. These concepts are illustrated with recent results from analysis of a rainforest fauna from northeast Australia.

Understanding the evolutionary processes that generate and sustain diversity in tropical faunas has challenged biologists for over a century and should underpin conservation strategies. Molecular studies of diversity within species and relationships among species, when integrated with more traditional approaches of biogeography and paleoecology, have much to contribute to this challenge. Here we outline the current major hypotheses, develop predictions relevant to integrated molecular approaches, and evaluate the current evidence, focusing on central African, Australian, and South American systems. The available data are sparse relative to the scale of the questions. However, the following conclusions can be drawn: (a) in most cases, the divergence of extant sister taxa predates the Pleistocene; (b) areas with high habitat heterogeneity and recent climatic or geological instability appear to harbor more species of recent origin; (c) there is support for both allopatric and gradient models of diversification and more attention should be given to the role of diversifying selection regardless of geographic context; and (d) conservation strategies should seek to protect heterogeneous landscapes within and adjacent to large rainforest areas, rather than rainforests alone. SCOPE AND ISSUES The search for the basis of high species diversity in tropical forests has occupied biologists for over a century (91, 115, 143, 151). What biologists seek to understand is how there come to be so many species in a single place (alpha diversity) and so much turnover of species between habitats (beta diversity) and

Aim  We aim to propose validated, spatially explicit hypotheses for the late Quaternary distribution of the Brazilian Atlantic forest, and thereby provide a framework for integrating analyses of species and genetic diversity in the region.Location  The Atlantic forest, stretching along the Brazilian coast.Methods  We model the spatial range of the forest under three climatic scenarios (current climate, 6000 and 21,000 years ago) with BIOCLIM and MAXENT. Historically stable areas or refugia are identified as the set of grid cells for which forest presence is inferred in all models and time projections. To validate inferred refugia, we test whether our models are matched by the current distribution of the forest and by fossil pollen data. We then investigate whether the location of inferred forest refugia is consistent with current patterns of species endemism and existing phylogeographical data.Results  Forest models agree with pollen records and predict a large area of historical forest stability in the central corridor (Bahia), as well as a smaller refuge (Pernambuco) along the Brazilian coast, matching current centres of endemism in multiple taxa and mtDNA diversity patterns in a subset of the species examined. Less historical stability is predicted in coastal areas south of the Doce river, which agrees with most phylogeographical studies in that region. Yet some widely distributed taxa show high endemism in the southern Atlantic forest. This may be due to limitations of the modelling approach, differences in ecology and dispersal capability, historical processes not contemplated by the current study or inadequacy of the available test data sets.Main conclusions  Palaeoclimatic models predict the presence of historical forest refugia in the Atlantic rain forest and suggest spatial variation in persistence of forests through the Pleistocene, predicting patterns of biodiversity in several local taxa. The results point to the need for further studies to document genetic and species endemism in the relatively poorly known and highly impacted areas of Atlantic rain forests of north‐eastern Brazil.