SummaryBackgroundWe have previously estimated that respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was associated with 22% of all episodes of (severe) acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) resulting in 55 000 to 199 000 deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2005. In the past 5 years, major research activity on RSV has yielded substantial new data from developing countries. With a considerably expanded dataset from a large international collaboration, we aimed to estimate the global incidence, hospital admission rate, and mortality from RSV-ALRI episodes in young children in 2015.MethodsWe estimated the incidence and hospital admission rate of RSV-associated ALRI (RSV-ALRI) in children younger than 5 years stratified by age and World Bank income regions from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2016, and unpublished data from 76 high quality population-based studies. We estimated the RSV-ALRI incidence for 132 developing countries using a risk factor-based model and 2015 population estimates. We estimated the in-hospital RSV-ALRI mortality by combining in-hospital case fatality ratios with hospital admission estimates from hospital-based (published and unpublished) studies. We also estimated overall RSV-ALRI mortality by identifying studies reporting monthly data for ALRI mortality in the community and RSV activity.FindingsWe estimated that globally in 2015, 33·1 million (uncertainty range [UR] 21·6–50·3) episodes of RSV-ALRI, resulted in about 3·2 million (2·7–3·8) hospital admissions, and 59 600 (48 000–74 500) in-hospital deaths in children younger than 5 years. In children younger than 6 months, 1·4 million (UR 1·2–1·7) hospital admissions, and 27 300 (UR 20 700–36 200) in-hospital deaths were due to RSV-ALRI. We also estimated that the overall RSV-ALRI mortality could be as high as 118 200 (UR 94 600–149 400). Incidence and mortality varied substantially from year to year in any given population.InterpretationGlobally, RSV is a common cause of childhood ALRI and a major cause of hospital admissions in young children, resulting in a substantial burden on health-care services. About 45% of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to RSV-ALRI occur in children younger than 6 months. An effective maternal RSV vaccine or monoclonal antibody could have a substantial effect on disease burden in this age group.FundingThe Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

SummaryBackgroundThe annual number of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to severe acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in young children worldwide is unknown. We aimed to estimate the incidence of admissions and deaths for such infections in children younger than 5 years in 2010.MethodsWe estimated the incidence of admissions for severe and very severe ALRI in children younger than 5 years, stratified by age and region, with data from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1990, and March 31, 2012, and from 28 unpublished population-based studies. We applied these incidence estimates to population estimates for 2010, to calculate the global and regional burden in children admitted with severe ALRI in that year. We estimated in-hospital mortality due to severe and very severe ALRI by combining incidence estimates with case fatality ratios from hospital-based studies.FindingsWe identified 89 eligible studies and estimated that in 2010, 11·9 million (95% CI 10·3–13·9 million) episodes of severe and 3·0 million (2·1–4·2 million) episodes of very severe ALRI resulted in hospital admissions in young children worldwide. Incidence was higher in boys than in girls, the sex disparity being greatest in South Asian studies. On the basis of data from 37 hospital studies reporting case fatality ratios for severe ALRI, we estimated that roughly 265 000 (95% CI 160 000–450 000) in-hospital deaths took place in young children, with 99% of these deaths in developing countries. Therefore, the data suggest that although 62% of children with severe ALRI are treated in hospitals, 81% of deaths happen outside hospitals.InterpretationSevere ALRI is a substantial burden on health services worldwide and a major cause of hospital referral and admission in young children. Improved hospital access and reduced inequities, such as those related to sex and rural status, could substantially decrease mortality related to such infection. Community-based management of severe disease could be an important complementary strategy to reduce pneumonia mortality and health inequities.FundingWHO.

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Background Seasonal influenza virus is a common cause of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in young children. In 2008, we estimated that 20 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI and 1 million influenza-virus-associated severe ALRI occurred in children under 5 years globally. Despite this substantial burden, only a few low-income and middleincome countries have adopted routine influenza vaccination policies for children and, where present, these have achieved only low or unknown levels of vaccine uptake. Moreover, the influenza burden might have changed due to the emergence and circulation of influenza A/H1N1pdm09. We aimed to incorporate new data to update estimates of the global number of cases, hospital admissions, and mortality from influenza-virus-associated respiratory infections in children under 5 years in 2018.Methods We estimated the regional and global burden of influenza-associated respiratory infections in children under 5 years from a systematic review of 100 studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2018, and a further 57 high-quality unpublished studies. We adapted the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to assess the risk of bias. We estimated incidence and hospitalisation rates of influenza-virus-associated respiratory infections by severity, case ascertainment, region, and age. We estimated in-hospital deaths from influenza virus ALRI by combining hospital admissions and in-hospital case-fatality ratios of influenza virus ALRI. We estimated the upper bound of influenza virus-associated ALRI deaths based on the number of in-hospital deaths, US paediatric influenza-associated death data, and populationbased childhood all-cause pneumonia mortality data in six sites in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.Findings In 2018, among children under 5 years globally, there were an estimated 109•5 million influenza virus episodes (uncertainty range [UR] 63•1-190•6), 10•1 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI cases (6•8-15•1); 870 000 influenza-virus-associated ALRI hospital admissions (543 000-1 415 000), 15 300 in-hospital deaths (5800-43 800), and up to 34 800 (13 200-97 200) overall influenza-virus-associated ALRI deaths. Influenza virus accounted for 7% of ALRI cases, 5% of ALRI hospital admissions, and 4% of ALRI deaths in children under 5 years. About 23% of the hospital admissions and 36% of the in-hospital deaths were in infants under 6 months. About 82% of the in-hospital deaths occurred in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.Interpretation A large proportion of the influenza-associated burden occurs among young infants and in low-income and lower middle-income countries. Our findings provide new and important evidence for maternal and paediatric influenza immunisation, and should inform future immunisation policy particularly in low-income and middleincome countries.Funding WHO; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background and ObjectiveRESPIRE, a randomized trial of an improved cookstove, was conducted in Guatemala to assess health effects of long-term reductions in wood smoke exposure. Given the evidence that ambient particles increase blood pressure, we hypothesized that the intervention would lower blood pressure.MethodsTwo study designs were used: a) between-group comparisons based on randomized stove assignment, and b) before-and-after comparisons within subjects before and after they received improved stoves. From 2003 to 2005, we measured personal fine particle (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 μm; PM2.5) exposures and systolic (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) among women > 38 years of age from the chimney woodstove intervention group (49 subjects) and traditional open wood fire control group (71 subjects). Measures were repeated up to three occasions.ResultsDaily average PM2.5 exposures were 264 and 102 μg/m3 in the control and intervention groups, respectively. After adjusting for age, body mass index, an asset index, smoking, secondhand tobacco smoke, apparent temperature, season, day of week, time of day, and a random subject intercept, the improved stove intervention was associated with 3.7 mm Hg lower SBP [95% confidence interval (CI), −8.1 to 0.6] and 3.0 mm Hg lower DBP (95% CI, −5.7 to −0.4) compared with controls. In the second study design, among 55 control subjects measured both before and after receiving chimney stoves, similar associations were observed.ConclusionThe between-group comparisons provide evidence, particularly for DBP, that the chimney stove reduces blood pressure, and the before-and-after comparisons are consistent with this evidence.

Exposure to household wood smoke from cooking is a risk factor for chronic obstructive lung disease among women in developing countries. The Randomized Exposure Study of Pollution Indoors and Respiratory Effects (RESPIRE) is a randomized intervention trial evaluating the respiratory health effects of reducing indoor air pollution from open cooking fires. A total of 504 rural Mayan women in highland Guatemala aged 15-50 years, all using traditional indoor open fires, were randomized to either receive a chimney woodstove (plancha) or continue using the open fire. Assessments of chronic respiratory symptoms and lung function and individual measurements of carbon monoxide exposure were performed at baseline and every 6 months up to 18 months. Use of a plancha significantly reduced carbon monoxide exposure by 61.6%. For all respiratory symptoms, reductions in risk were observed in the plancha group during follow-up; the reduction was statistically significant for wheeze (relative risk = 0.42, 95% confidence interval: 0.25, 0.70). The number of respiratory symptoms reported by the women at each follow-up point was also significantly reduced by the plancha (odds ratio = 0.7, 95% confidence interval: 0.50, 0.97). However, no significant effects on lung function were found after 12-18 months. Reducing indoor air pollution from household biomass burning may relieve symptoms consistent with chronic respiratory tract irritation.

Improved biomass cookstoves have the potential to reduce pollutant emissions and thereby reduce pollution exposure among populations in developing countries who cook daily with biomass fuels. However, evaluation of such interventions has been very limited. This article presents results from a study carried out in 30 households in rural Guatemala. Twenty-four hour PM3.5 concentrations were compared over 8 months for three fuel/cookstove conditions (n = 10 households for each condition): a traditional open fire cookstove, an improved cookstove called the plancha mejorada, and a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) stove/open fire combination. Twenty-four hour geometric mean PM3.5 concentrations were 1560 micrograms/m3 (n = 58; 95% C.I. 1310, 1850), 280 micrograms/m3 (n = 59; 95% C.I. 240-320), and 850 micrograms/m3 (n = 60; 95% C.I. 680-1050) for the open fire, plancha, and LPG/open fire combination, respectively. A generalized estimating equation model showed a 45% reduction in PM3.5 concentrations for the LPG/open fire combination as compared to the open fire alone. The difference approached significance (p < 0.0737). The plancha showed an 85% reduction in PM3.5 concentrations as compared to the open fire (p < 0.0001). An analysis of the interaction of time with stove type showed that the temporal trend in pollution did not significantly differ among the three stove types. The reduced PM3.5 concentrations were maintained over time. Season did not affect pollutant concentrations. Of the two interventions, the plancha appears to offer the best prospects for achieving substantial reductions in indoor air pollution levels, although issues of cost and stove maintenance remain to be addressed.

BackgroundKnowing the national disease burden of severe influenza in low-income countries can inform policy decisions around influenza treatment and prevention. We present a novel methodology using locally generated data for estimating this burden.Methods and FindingsThis method begins with calculating the hospitalized severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) incidence for children <5 years old and persons ≥5 years old from population-based surveillance in one province. This base rate of SARI is then adjusted for each province based on the prevalence of risk factors and healthcare-seeking behavior. The percentage of SARI with influenza virus detected is determined from provincial-level sentinel surveillance and applied to the adjusted provincial rates of hospitalized SARI. Healthcare-seeking data from healthcare utilization surveys is used to estimate non-hospitalized influenza-associated SARI. Rates of hospitalized and non-hospitalized influenza-associated SARI are applied to census data to calculate the national number of cases. The method was field-tested in Kenya, and validated in Guatemala, using data from August 2009–July 2011. In Kenya (2009 population 38.6 million persons), the annual number of hospitalized influenza-associated SARI cases ranged from 17,129–27,659 for children <5 years old (2.9–4.7 per 1,000 persons) and 6,882–7,836 for persons ≥5 years old (0.21–0.24 per 1,000 persons), depending on year and base rate used. In Guatemala (2011 population 14.7 million persons), the annual number of hospitalized cases of influenza-associated pneumonia ranged from 1,065–2,259 (0.5–1.0 per 1,000 persons) among children <5 years old and 779–2,252 cases (0.1–0.2 per 1,000 persons) for persons ≥5 years old, depending on year and base rate used. In both countries, the number of non-hospitalized influenza-associated cases was several-fold higher than the hospitalized cases.ConclusionsInfluenza virus was associated with a substantial amount of severe disease in Kenya and Guatemala. This method can be performed in most low and lower-middle income countries.