The spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Africa is poorly described. The first case of SARS-CoV-2 in Kenya was reported on March 12, 2020 and an overwhelming number of cases and deaths were expected but by July 31, 2020 there were only 20,636 cases and 341 deaths. However, the extent of SARS-CoV-2 exposure in the community remains unknown. We determined the prevalence of anti–SARS-CoV-2 IgG among blood donors in Kenya in April-June 2020. Crude seroprevalence was 5.6% (174/3098). Population-weighted, test-performance-adjusted national seroprevalence was 4.3% (95% CI 2.9–5.8%) and was highest in urban counties, Mombasa (8.0%), Nairobi (7.3%) and Kisumu (5.5%). SARS-CoV-2 exposure is more extensive than indicated by case-based surveillance and these results will help guide the pandemic response in Kenya, and across Africa.

Background There are no data on SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in Africa though the COVID-19 epidemic curve and reported mortality differ from patterns seen elsewhere. We estimated the anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence among blood donors in Kenya. Methods We measured anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike IgG prevalence by ELISA on residual blood donor samples obtained between April 30 and June 16, 2020. Assay sensitivity and specificity were 83% (95% CI 59, 96%) and 99.0% (95% CI 98.1, 99.5%), respectively. National seroprevalence was estimated using Bayesian multilevel regression and post-stratification to account for non-random sampling with respect to age, sex and region, adjusted for assay performance. Results Complete data were available for 3098 of 3174 donors, aged 15-64 years. By comparison with the Kenyan population, the sample over-represented males (82% versus 49%), adults aged 25-34 years (40% versus 27%) and residents of coastal Counties (49% versus 9%). Crude overall seroprevalence was 5.6% (174/3098). Population-weighted, test-adjusted national seroprevalence was 5.2% (95% CI 3.7, 7.1%). Seroprevalence was highest in the 3 largest urban Counties; Mombasa (9.3% [95% CI 6.4, 13.2%)], Nairobi (8.5% [95% CI 4.9, 13.5%]) and Kisumu (6.5% [95% CI 3.3, 11.2%]). Conclusions We estimate that 1 in 20 adults in Kenya had SARS-CoV-2 antibodies during the study period. By the median date of our survey, only 2093 COVID-19 cases and 71 deaths had been reported through the national screening system. This contrasts, by several orders of magnitude, with the numbers of cases and deaths reported in parts of Europe and America when seroprevalence was similar.

Policy decisions on COVID-19 interventions should be informed by a local, regional and national understanding of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. Epidemic waves may result when restrictions are lifted or poorly adhered to, variants with new phenotypic properties successfully invade, or infection spreads to susceptible subpopulations. Three COVID-19 epidemic waves have been observed in Kenya. Using a mechanistic mathematical model, we explain the first two distinct waves by differences in contact rates in high and low social-economic groups, and the third wave by the introduction of higher-transmissibility variants. Reopening schools led to a minor increase in transmission between the second and third waves. Socioeconomic and urban-rural population structure are critical determinants of viral transmission in Kenya.

Observed SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths are low in tropical Africa raising questions about the extent of transmission. We measured SARS-CoV-2 IgG by ELISA in 9,922 blood donors across Kenya and adjusted for sampling bias and test performance. By 1st September 2020, 577 COVID-19 deaths were observed nationwide and seroprevalence was 9.1% (95%CI 7.6-10.8%). Seroprevalence in Nairobi was 22.7% (18.0-27.7%). Although most people remained susceptible, SARS-CoV-2 had spread widely in Kenya with apparently low associated mortality.

Background Few studies have assessed the seroprevalence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 among Health Care Workers (HCWs) in Africa. We report findings from a survey among HCWs in three counties in Kenya. Methods We recruited 684 HCWs from Kilifi (rural), Busia (rural) and Nairobi (urban) counties. The serosurvey was conducted between 30th July 2020 and 4th December 2020. We tested for IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein using ELISA. Assay sensitivity and specificity were 93% (95% CI 88-96%) and 99% (95% CI 98-99.5%), respectively. We adjusted prevalence estimates using Bayesian modeling to account for assay performance. Results Crude overall seroprevalence was 19.7% (135/684). After adjustment for assay performance seroprevalence was 20.8% (95% CrI 17.5-24.4%). Seroprevalence varied significantly (p<0.001) by site: 43.8% (CrI 35.8-52.2%) in Nairobi, 12.6% (CrI 8.8-17.1%) in Busia and 11.5% (CrI 7.2-17.6%) in Kilifi. In a multivariable model controlling for age, sex and site, professional cadre was not associated with differences in seroprevalence. Conclusion These initial data demonstrate a high seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 among HCWs in Kenya. There was significant variation in seroprevalence by region, but not by cadre.

Summary Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral hemorrhagic disease first discovered in Kenya in 1930. Numerous animal studies have demonstrated that protective immunity is acquired following RVF virus (RVFV) infection and that this correlates with acquisition of virus-neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) that target the viral envelope glycoproteins. However, naturally acquired immunity to RVF in humans is poorly described. Here, we characterized the immune response to the viral envelope glycoproteins, Gn and Gc, in RVFV-exposed Kenyan adults. Long-lived IgG (dominated by IgG1 subclass) and T cell responses were detected against both Gn and Gc. However, antigen-specific antibody depletion experiments showed that Gn-specific antibodies dominate the RVFV nAb response. IgG avidity against Gn, but not Gc, correlated with nAb titers. These data are consistent with the greater level of immune accessibility of Gn on the viral envelope surface and confirm the importance of Gn as an integral component for RVF vaccine development.

Background Chikungunya fever (CHIKF) was first described in Tanzania in 1952. Several epidemics including East Africa have occurred, but there are no descriptions of longitudinal surveillance of endemic disease. Here, we estimate the incidence of CHIKF in coastal Kenya and describe the associated viral phylogeny. Methods We monitored acute febrile illnesses among 3500 children visiting two primary healthcare facilities in coastal Kenya over a 5-year period (2014–2018). Episodes were linked to a demographic surveillance system and blood samples obtained. Cross-sectional sampling in a community survey of a different group of 435 asymptomatic children in the same study location was done in 2016. Reverse-transcriptase PCR was used for chikungunya virus (CHIKV) screening, and viral genomes sequenced for phylogenetic analyses. Results We found CHIKF to be endemic in this setting, associated with 12.7% (95% CI 11.60, 13.80) of all febrile presentations to primary healthcare. The prevalence of CHIKV infections among asymptomatic children in the community survey was 0.7% (95% CI 0.22, 2.12). CHIKF incidence among children < 1 year of age was 1190 cases/100,000-person years and 63 cases/100,000-person years among children aged ≥10 years. Recurrent CHIKF episodes, associated with fever and viraemia, were observed among 19 of 170 children with multiple febrile episodes during the study period. All sequenced viral genomes mapped to the ECSA genotype albeit distinct from CHIKV strains associated with the 2004 East African epidemic. Conclusions CHIKF may be a substantial public health burden in primary healthcare on the East African coast outside epidemic years, and recurrent infections are common.

In October 2020, anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG seroprevalence among truck drivers and their assistants (TDA) in Kenya was 42.3%, higher than among other key populations. TDA transport essential supplies during the COVID-19 pandemic, placing them at increased risk of being infected and of transmitting SARS-CoV-2 infection over a wide geographical area.