SummaryBackgroundLower respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality around the world. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016, provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 26 years and shows how the burden of lower respiratory infection has changed in people of all ages.MethodsWe used three separate modelling strategies for lower respiratory infections in GBD 2016: a Bayesian hierarchical ensemble modelling platform (Cause of Death Ensemble model), which uses vital registration, verbal autopsy data, and surveillance system data to predict mortality due to lower respiratory infections; a compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR), which uses scientific literature, population representative surveys, and health-care data to predict incidence, prevalence, and mortality; and modelling of counterfactual estimates of the population attributable fraction of lower respiratory infection episodes due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae type b, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus. We calculated each modelled estimate for each age, sex, year, and location. We modelled the exposure level in a population for a given risk factor using DisMod-MR and a spatio-temporal Gaussian process regression, and assessed the effectiveness of targeted interventions for each risk factor in children younger than 5 years. We also did a decomposition analysis of the change in LRI deaths from 2000–16 using the risk factors associated with LRI in GBD 2016.FindingsIn 2016, lower respiratory infections caused 652 572 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 586 475–720 612) in children younger than 5 years (under-5s), 1 080 958 deaths (943 749–1 170 638) in adults older than 70 years, and 2 377 697 deaths (2 145 584–2 512 809) in people of all ages, worldwide. Streptococcus pneumoniae was the leading cause of lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality globally, contributing to more deaths than all other aetiologies combined in 2016 (1 189 937 deaths, 95% UI 690 445–1 770 660). Childhood wasting remains the leading risk factor for lower respiratory infection mortality among children younger than 5 years, responsible for 61·4% of lower respiratory infection deaths in 2016 (95% UI 45·7–69·6). Interventions to improve wasting, household air pollution, ambient particulate matter pollution, and expanded antibiotic use could avert one under-5 death due to lower respiratory infection for every 4000 children treated in the countries with the highest lower respiratory infection burden.InterpretationOur findings show substantial progress in the reduction of lower respiratory infection burden, but this progress has not been equal across locations, has been driven by decreases in several primary risk factors, and might require more effort among elderly adults. By highlighting regions and populations with the highest burden, and the risk factors that could...

BackgroundIndividuals with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection are at an increased risk of developing active tuberculosis (TB). It is known that treatment of latent TB infection (LTBI), also referred to as TB preventive therapy or chemoprophylaxis, helps to prevent progression to active disease in HIV negative populations. However, the extent and magnitude of protection (if any) associated with preventive therapy in those infected with HIV should be quantified. This present study is an update of the original review. ObjectivesTo determine the e ectiveness of TB preventive therapy in reducing the risk of active tuberculosis and death in HIV-infected persons. Search methodsThis review was updated using the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (CCTR), MEDLINE, EMBASE, AIDSLINE, AIDSTRIALS, AIDSearch, NLM Gateway and AIDSDRUGS (publication date from 01 July 2002 to 04 April 2008). We also scanned reference lists of articles and contacted authors and other researchers in the field in an attempt to identify additional studies that may be eligible for inclusion in this review. Selection criteriaWe included randomized controlled trials in which HIV positive individuals were randomly allocated to TB preventive therapy or placebo, or to alternative TB preventive therapy regimens. Participants could be tuberculin skin test positive or negative, but without active tuberculosis. Data collection and analysisThree reviewers independently applied the study selection criteria, assessed study quality and extracted data. E ects were assessed using relative risk for dichotomous data and mean di erences for continuous data. Main results12 trials were included with a total of 8578 randomized participants. TB preventive therapy (any anti-TB drug) versus placebo was associated with a lower incidence of active TB (RR 0.68, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.85). This benefit was more pronounced in individuals with a positive tuberculin skin test (RR 0.38, 95% CI 0.25 to 0.57) than in those who had a negative test (RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.24). E icacy was similar for all regimens (regardless of drug type, frequency or duration of treatment). However, compared to INH monotherapy, shortcourse multi-drug regimens were much more likely to require discontinuation of treatment due to adverse e ects. Although there was reduction in mortality with INH monotherapy versus placebo among individuals with a positive tuberculin skin test (RR 0.74, 95% CI 0.55 to 1.00) and with INH plus rifampicin versus placebo regardless of tuberculin skin test status (RR 0.69, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.95), overall, there was no evidence that TB preventive therapy versus placebo reduced all-cause mortality (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.05).

SummaryBackgroundDetailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016.MethodsWe have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15–60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations in...

Objectives To determine whether BCG vaccination protects against Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection as assessed by interferon γ release assays (IGRA) in children.Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Searches of electronic databases 1950 to November 2013, checking of reference lists, hand searching of journals, and contact with experts. Setting Community congregate settings and households.Inclusion criteria Vaccinated and unvaccinated children aged under 16 with known recent exposure to patients with pulmonary tuberculosis. Children were screened for infection with M tuberculosis with interferon γ release assays. Data extractionStudy results relating to diagnostic accuracy were extracted and risk estimates were combined with random effects meta-analysis. ResultsThe primary analysis included 14 studies and 3855 participants. The estimated overall risk ratio was 0.81 (95% confidence interval 0.71 to 0.92), indicating a protective efficacy of 19% against infection among vaccinated children after exposure compared with unvaccinated children. The observed protection was similar when estimated with the two types of interferon γ release assays (ELISpot or QuantiFERON). Restriction of the analysis to the six studies (n=1745) with information on progression to active tuberculosis at the time of screening showed protection against infection of 27% (risk ratio 0.73, 0.61 to 0.87) compared with 71% (0.29, 0.15 to 0.58) against active tuberculosis. Among those infected, protection against progression to disease was 58% (0.42, 0.23 to 0.77). Conclusions BCG protects against M tuberculosis infection as well as progression from infection to disease.Trial registration PROSPERO registration No CRD42011001698 (www. crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/). IntroductionBCG vaccine has been the subject of numerous efficacy trials and epidemiological studies conducted over several decades. These trials indicate that BCG has 60-80% protective efficacy against severe forms of tuberculosis in children, particularly meningitis, 1 2 and its efficacy against pulmonary diseases varies geographically.3-5 BCG does not seem to protect against disease when it is given to people already infected or sensitised to environmental mycobacteria, which could explain the geographical variation.6-8 Until recently it was not possible to establish whether the protective effect of BCG vaccination against disease was from its action in preventing acquisition of infection or limited to prevention of progression from infection to clinical disease.The scarcity of evidence on whether the vaccine is effective against Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection was because of limitations of the tuberculin skin test. This test cannot distinguish a positive response caused by M tuberculosis infection from that caused by BCG vaccination or non-tuberculous In this systematic review we examined the evidence for the protective effect of BCG against M tuberculosis infection, as opposed to against disease, in settings where children can be presumed to have been exposed to M tu...

SummaryBackgroundNational levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015.MethodsWe mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure–the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index–on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time.FindingsBetween 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among...

Considerable variability exists in the outcome of M. tuberculosis infection. We hypothesized that M. africanum was less likely than M. tuberculosis to transmit and progress to tuberculosis disease. In a cohort study of tuberculosis patients and their household contacts in the Gambia, we categorized 1,808 HIV negative tuberculosis contacts according to exposure to M. tuberculosis or to M. africanum. A positive skin test indicated transmission and development of tuberculosis during 2 years of follow-up indicated progression to disease. Transmission was similar, but progression to disease was significantly lower in contacts exposed to M. africanum than to M. tuberculosis (1.0% vs 2.9%; Hazard Ratio (HR) 3.1, 95% CI 1.1–8.7). Within M. tuberculosis sensu stricto, contacts exposed to a Beijing family strain were most likely to progress to disease (5.6%; HR 6.7 (2.0–22) relative to M. africanum). M. africanum and M. tuberculosis transmit equally well to household contacts, but contacts exposed to M. africanum are less likely to progress to tuberculosis disease than those exposed to M. tuberculosis. The variable rate of progression by lineage suggests that TB variability matters in clinical settings and should be taken into account in studies evaluating tuberculosis vaccines and treatment regimens for latent tuberculosis infection.

Rationale: Contacts of patients with tuberculosis (TB) constitute an important target population for preventive measures because they are at high risk of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis and progression to disease.Objectives: We investigated biosignatures with predictive ability for incident TB.Methods: In a case-control study nested within the Grand Challenges 6-74 longitudinal HIV-negative African cohort of exposed household contacts, we employed RNA sequencing, PCR, and the pair ratio algorithm in a training/test set approach. Overall, 79 progressors who developed TB between 3 and 24 months after diagnosis of index case and 328 matched nonprogressors who remained healthy during 24 months of follow-up were investigated. Measurements and Main Results:A four-transcript signature derived from samples in a South African and Gambian training set predicted progression up to two years before onset of disease in blinded test set samples from South Africa, the Gambia, and Ethiopia with little population-associated variability, and it was also validated in an external cohort of South African adolescents with latent M. tuberculosis infection. By contrast, published diagnostic or prognostic TB signatures were predicted in samples from some but not all three countries, indicating site-specific variability. Post hoc meta-analysis identified a single gene pair, C1QC/TRAV27 (complement C1q C-chain / T-cell receptor-a variable gene 27) that would consistently predict TB progression in household contacts from multiple African sites but not in infected adolescents without known recent exposure events.Conclusions: Collectively, we developed a simple whole blood-based PCR test to predict TB in recently exposed household contacts from diverse African populations. This test has potential for implementation in national TB contact investigation programs.

The spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Africa is poorly described. The first case of SARS-CoV-2 in Kenya was reported on March 12, 2020 and an overwhelming number of cases and deaths were expected but by July 31, 2020 there were only 20,636 cases and 341 deaths. However, the extent of SARS-CoV-2 exposure in the community remains unknown. We determined the prevalence of anti–SARS-CoV-2 IgG among blood donors in Kenya in April-June 2020. Crude seroprevalence was 5.6% (174/3098). Population-weighted, test-performance-adjusted national seroprevalence was 4.3% (95% CI 2.9–5.8%) and was highest in urban counties, Mombasa (8.0%), Nairobi (7.3%) and Kisumu (5.5%). SARS-CoV-2 exposure is more extensive than indicated by case-based surveillance and these results will help guide the pandemic response in Kenya, and across Africa.