Ample evidence exists that managers attempt to use 'artificial' choices concerning alternative accounting procedures for classification, valuation and allocation of transactions to smooth reported periodic income or earnings series. However, the actual smoothing effect of such choices and their influence on the properties of earnings numbers is unknown. This study analyses the smoothing potential of depreciation when systematically applied. It exploits an idea regarding the effects of inclusion of expectations information in earnings calculations due to Willett (1988Willett ( , 1991b, theoretically elaborated by Gibbins and Willett (1997) and applied analytically by Lane and Willett (1997). Using a statistical activity cost theory (SACT) framework, we quantify the smoothing (variance reduction) potential of straight-line and reducing-balance depreciation methods and compare the potential with an analytically derived depreciation method which optimizes variance reduction. We also evaluate the effects of conditioning factors such as accuracy of managers' expectations and relative asset acquisition and disposal values upon smoothing potential. We find that systematically depreciating assets can smooth undepreciated earnings numbers. Straight-line depreciation can exploit virtually all of this potential and reducing-balance depreciation a substantial proportion. However, realising this potential varies greatly depending on conditioning factors. The investigation is practical and policy oriented but complementary to theoretical extensions of the sort suggested by Butler et al. (1994). While the article focuses on depreciation, the SACT framework is completely general and may be extended to any choice of method for smoothing earnings series.
The speculative efficiency of the Sydney Futures Exchange's market in bank accepted bills is examined by considering if the futures price is an unbiased predictor of the subsequent spot price and if other publicly available information can improve on this predictor. Data spanning the period 1980(1) to 1986(5) are employed The results are adverse to the efficiency hypothesis in that the futures price in some cases is not an unbiased predictor and neither is it an optimal predictor.
In this paper, experimental, computer simulation methods are used to demonstrate how a depreciationtype adjustment influences the distributional form of accounting earnings. The results confirm conjectures that earnings distributions generally. with or without depreciation adjustments. tend towards a normal form as a function of increasing 'activity' levels. They also indicate that depreciation is likely to accelerate the transition towards a normal form as activity levels increase and to transform a non-normal form to one that is significantly closer to the normal at relatively low activity levels. The impact of the fixed asset 'impairment' rules is also investigated. The results reported in the paper have implications for standard-setting, risk analysis and inference using accounting earnings and related numbers, including ratios based upon earnings.
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