Abstract. Detection of long-term, linear trends is affected by a number of factors, including the size of trend to be detected, the time span of available data, and the magnitude of variability and autocorrelation of the noise in the data. The number of years of data necessary to detect a trend is strongly dependent on, and increases with, the magnitude of variance (o-2•) and autocorrelation coefficient (qb) of the noise. For a typical range of values of o-2• and 4> the number of years of data needed to detect a trend of 5%/decade can vary from -10 to >20 years, implying that in choosing sites to detect trends some locations are likely to be more efficient and cost-effective than others. Additionally, some environmental variables allow for an earlier detection of trends than other variables because of their low variability and autocorrelation. The detection of trends can be confounded when sudden changes occur in the data, such as when an instrument is changed or a volcano erupts. Sudden level shifts in data sets, whether due to artificial sources, such as changes in instrumentation or site location, or natural sources, such as volcanic eruptions or local changes to the environment, can strongly impact the number of years necessary to detect a given trend, increasing the number of years by as much as 50% or more. This paper provides formulae for estimating the number of years necessary to detect trends, along with the estimates of the impact of interventions on trend detection. The uncertainty associated with these estimates is also explored. The results presented are relevant for a variety of practical decisions in managing a monitoring station, such as whether to move an instrument, change monitoring protocols in the middle of a long-term monitoring program, or try to reduce uncertainty in the measurements by improved calibration techniques. The results are also useful for establishing reasonable expectations for trend detection and can be helpful in selecting sites and environmental variables for the detection of trends. An important implication of these results is that it will take several decades of high-quality data to detect the trends likely to occur in nature. IntroductionThe impact of human intervention in a changing environment has brought about increased concern for detecting trends in various types of environmental data. A variety of studies

Halley Bay (75.5øS, 26.8øW) that has occurred annually since the mid-1970s in September and October. This Antarctic ozone "hole" which is characterized by 50% or more decreases in column ozone has now been extensively studied using satellite, aircraft, and ground-based instruments. In addition, further analyses of satellite and ground-based Dobson data have shown northern hemisphere (30øN to 64øN) The Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) was conceived to provide critical data for study of the ozone distribution and those processes which affect ozone levels. The experiment uses the principle of satellite solar occultation to sound the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere. Using this technique, absorption of solar energy in selected spectral bands is used to infer vertical profiles of temperature, pressure, and mixing ratios of key gases involved in the ozone chemistry. The HALOE instrument includes both broadband and gas filter channels Together, these observations form a minimum but adequate set which can be used to derive, under appropriate conditions, the unmeasured concentrations of several other gases needed to test understanding of the chemistry (see Figure 1). In this regard, HALOE 03, H20, and CH4 measurements, for example, can be used to derive OH levels. In turn, these parameters can be used to derive atomic chlorine and, from that, C10 through reactions with 03. Chlorine monoxide can be used with NO2 observations to derive chlorine nitrate (C1ONO2). Since C10

The biologically effective ultraviolet irradiance at the earth's surface varies with the elevation of the sun, the atmospheric ozone amount, and with the abundance of scatterers and absorbers of natural and anthropogenic origin. Taken alone, the reported decrease in column ozone over the Northern Hemisphere between 1969 and 1986 implies an increase in erythemal irradiance at the ground of four percent or less during summer. However, an increase in tropospheric absorption, arising from polluting gases or particulates over localized areas, could more than offset the predicted enhancement in radiation. Any such extra absorption is likely to be highly regional in nature and does not imply that a decrease in erythemal radiation has occurred on a global basis. The Antarctic ‘ozone hole’ represents a special case in which a portion of the earth has experienced ultraviolet radiation levels during spring that are far in excess of those which prevailed prior to the present decade.

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Abstract. International agreements for the limitation of ozone-depleting substances have already resulted in decreases in concentrations of some of these chemicals in the troposphere. Full compliance and understanding of all factors contributing to ozone depletion are still uncertain; however, reasonable expectations are for a gradual recovery of the ozone layer over the next 50 years. Because of the complexity of the processes involved in ozone depletion, it is crucial to detect not just a decrease in ozone-depleting substances but also a recovery in the ozone layer. The recovery is likely to be detected in some areas sooner than others because of natural variability in ozone concentrations. On the basis of both the magnitude and autocorrelation of the noise from Nimbus 7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer ozone measurements, estimates of the time required to detect a fixed trend in ozone at various locations around the world are presented. Predictions from the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) two-dimensional chemical model are used to estimate the time required to detect predicted trends in different areas of the world. The analysis is based on our current understanding of ozone chemistry, full compliance with the Montreal Protocol and its amendments, and no intervening factors, such as major volcanic eruptions or enhanced stratospheric cooling. The results indicate that recovery of total column ozone is likely to be detected earliest in the Southern Hemisphere near New Zealand, southern Africa, and southern South America and that the range of time expected to detect recovery for most regions of the world is between 15 and 45 years. Should the recovery be slower than predicted by the GSFC model, owing, for instance, to the effect of greenhouse gas emissions, or should measurement sites be perturbed, even longer times would be needed for detection.