Summary1. Theoretical models predict a negative effect of current reproduction on breeding dispersal, survival and future reproduction, and many studies confirm these predictions. Yet, results of most previous studies may be difficult to interpret because the fate of the affected individuals cannot always be observed. Detection is almost always imperfect and some individuals emigrate from the study area, resulting in biased estimates of both survival and dispersal. 2. Most studies bypass these problems with strong assumptions. We use a multistate capturerecapture model that does not require these assumptions. States are defined based on classes of reproductive success and on observed dispersal events within the study area. By accounting for imperfect detection within the study area, the model allows estimation of the effect of reproductive success on apparent survival, dispersal probabilities within the study area and the annual transition probabilities among classes of reproductive success. Based on an assumption about the estimate of real survival, the model allows the estimation of total dispersal that is not specific to a fixed study area. 3. We applied this model to capture-recapture data of 2262 adult barn swallows ( Hirundo rustica ) sampled from 1997-2004 in eight local populations in Switzerland. 4. We found that dispersal within the study area decreased with increasing reproductive success in both sexes, that reproductive success was not affected by preceding dispersal and that apparent survival of females but not of males increased with increasing reproductive success. Apparent survival of females with high reproductive success was identical to apparent survival of males suggesting that this estimate of apparent survival (0·48) was close to true survival. Total breeding dispersal was generally higher in females and it increased with decreasing reproductive success in both sexes. Current reproductive success depended on reproductive success in the preceding year suggesting that individual differences were of importance. 5. Our study highlights that reproductive success was an important factor affecting breeding dispersal and population turnover. While unsuccessful males mainly remained in the local populations, many unsuccessful females left them. Population turnover of adult swallows was mainly due to unsuccessful females.

Summary1. In many parts of the world, changes in agricultural land-use have led to significant declines of bird species, including aerial insectivores such as barn swallows. In particular, barn swallow populations have been declining across Europe where mixed and livestock farming have been replaced by arable farming. 2. A positive association between livestock farming and barn swallow reproductive success is well documented but the specific roles of micro-and macroenvironment, which are not mutually exclusive, remain unclear. A positive effect of livestock on swallow breeding performance might be due to improved feeding conditions associated with dung around cattle farms (macrohabitat). Barn swallows also might profit from raised and more constant temperatures at the nest site in stables housing farm animals (microhabitat). 3. We analysed data on barn swallows breeding across Switzerland to quantify the effects of livestock farming at the micro-and macrohabitat on the reproductive success of single-and doublebrood pairs. We focus on the effects of nest temperature (expressed as presence of livestock) and food availability around the nest (quantified by the number of manure heaps providing large number of flies). 4. The presence of livestock in the building with the nest and large numbers of manure heaps around nest sites increased nestling survival in double-brood but not in single-brood pairs. Furthermore, the presence of livestock tended to increase the probability of pairs rearing double broods and increased the annual output of double-brood pairs by 0AE8 chicks. Both factors of livestock farming combined increased the annual output by 1AE6 chicks. 5. Synthesis and applications. The productivity of barn swallows depends on the characteristics of the micro-and the macrohabitat. Since changes in farming systems, grazing patterns, landscape heterogeneity and climate may have different effects on micro-and macrohabitats, respectively, they affect productivity of declining bird species in a complex way. Measures designed to enhance habitat quality in aerial insectivores should improve microclimatic conditions at the nest and increase the number of food patches providing airborne insects. In general, habitat improvements should include both spatial scales, namely suitable sites for nesting and accessible food resources on the foraging grounds.

Populations of many species show temporally synchronous dynamics over some range, mostly caused by spatial autocorrelation of the environment that affects demographic rates. Synchronous fluctuation of a demographic rate is a necessary, but not sufficient condition for population synchrony because population growth is differentially sensitive to variation in demographic rates. Little is known about the relative effects of demographic rates to population synchrony, because it is rare that all demographic rates from several populations are known. We develop a hierarchical integrated population model with which all relevant demographic rates from all study populations can be estimated and apply it to demographic data of barn swallows Hirundo rustica from nine sites that were between 19 and 224 km apart from each other. We decompose the variation of the population growth and of the demographic rates (apparent survival, components of productivity, immigration) into global and local temporal components using random effects which allowed the estimation of synchrony of these rates. The barn swallow populations fluctuated synchronously, but less so than most demographic rates. The highest synchrony showed the probability of double brooding, while fledging success was highly asynchronous. Apparent survival, immigration and total productivity achieved intermediate levels of synchrony. The growth of all populations was most sensitive to changes in immigration and adult apparent survival, and both of them contributed to the observed temporal variation of population growth rates. Using a simulation model, we show that immigration and apparent survival of juveniles and adults were able to induce population synchrony, but not components of local productivity due to their low population growth rate sensitivity. Immigrants are mostly first-time breeders, and consequently, their number depends on the productivity of neighbouring populations. Since total productivity was synchronized, we conclude that it contributed to population synchrony in an indirect way through dispersing individuals which appear as immigrants at the local scale. The hierarchical integrated population model is promising for achieving an improved mechanistic understanding of population synchrony.

Abstract. Patterns of selection are widely believed to differ geographically, causing adaptation to local environmental conditions. However, few studies have investigated patterns of phenotypic selection across large spatial scales. We quantified the intensity of selection on morphology in a monogamous passerine bird, the barn swallow Hirundo rustica, using 6495 adults from 22 populations distributed across Europe and North Africa. According to the classical DarwinFisher mechanism of sexual selection in monogamous species, two important components of fitness due to sexual selection are the advantages that the most attractive males acquire by starting to breed early and their high annual fecundity. We estimated directional selection differentials on tail length (a secondary sexual character) and directional selection gradients after controlling for correlated selection on wing length and tarsus length with respect to these two fitness components. Phenotype and fitness components differed significantly among populations for which estimates were available for more than a single year. Likewise, selection differentials and selection gradients differed significantly among populations for tail length, but not for the other two characters. Sexual selection differentials differed significantly from zero across populations for tail length, particularly in males. Controlling statistically for the effects of age reduced the intensity of selection by 60 to 81%, although corrected and uncorrected estimates were strongly positively correlated. Selection differentials and gradients for tail length were positively correlated between the sexes among populations for selection acting on breeding date, but not for fecundity selection. The intensity of selection with respect to breeding date and fecundity were significantly correlated for tail length across populations. Sexual size dimorphism in tail length was significantly correlated with selection differentials with respect to breeding date for tail length in male barn swallows across populations. These findings suggest that patterns of sexual selection are consistent across large geographical scales, but also that they vary among populations. In addition, geographical patterns of phenotypic selection predict current patterns of phenotypic variation among populations, suggesting that consistent patterns of selection have been present for considerable amounts of time.

A die-off of passerine birds, mostly Eurasian siskins (Carduelis spinus), occurred in multiple areas of Switzerland between February and March 2010. Several of the dead birds were submitted for full necropsy. Bacteriological examination was carried out on multiple tissues of each bird. At gross examination, common findings were light-tan nodules, 1 to 4 mm in diameter, scattered through the esophagus/crop. Histologically, a necroulcerative transmural esophagitis/ingluvitis was observed. Bacterial cultures yielded Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serovar Typhimurium. At the same time, 2 pet clinics reported an unusual increase of domestic cats presented with fever, anorexia, occasionally dolent abdomen, and history of presumed consumption of passerine birds. Analysis of rectal swabs revealed the presence of S. Typhimurium in all tested cats. PFGE (pulsed field electrophoresis) analysis was performed to characterize and compare the bacterial isolates, and it revealed an indistinguishable pattern between all the avian and all but 1 of the feline isolates. Cloacal swabs collected from clinically healthy migrating Eurasian siskins (during autumn 2010) did not yield S. Typhimurium. The histological and bacteriological findings were consistent with a systemic infection caused by S. Typhimurium. Isolation of the same serovar from the dead birds and ill cats, along with the overlapping results of the PFGE analysis for all the animal species, confirmed a spillover from birds to cats through predation. The sudden increase of the number of siskins over the Swiss territory and their persistency during the whole winter of 2009-2010 is considered the most likely predisposing factor for the onset of the epidemic.