Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC) contribute to both degraded air quality and global warming. We considered ~400 emission control measures to reduce these pollutants by using current technology and experience. We identified 14 measures targeting methane and BC emissions that reduce projected global mean warming ~0.5°C by 2050. This strategy avoids 0.7 to 4.7 million annual premature deaths from outdoor air pollution and increases annual crop yields by 30 to 135 million metric tons due to ozone reductions in 2030 and beyond. Benefits of methane emissions reductions are valued at $700 to $5000 per metric ton, which is well above typical marginal abatement costs (less than $250). The selected controls target different sources and influence climate on shorter time scales than those of carbon dioxide-reduction measures. Implementing both substantially reduces the risks of crossing the 2°C threshold.

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BackgroundHeatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited.Methods and findingsWe collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave–mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971–2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031–2080 compared with 1971–2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections.ConclusionsThis study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.

The relationship between blood pressure and blood lead levels in the second National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1976-1980) has been examined for white males aged 40-59 years. After adjustment for age, body mass index, nutritional factors, and blood biochemistries in a multiple linear regression model, the relationship of systolic and diastolic blood pressures to blood lead levels was statistically significant (p less than 0.01). There was no evidence of a threshold blood lead level for this relationship. Although these data alone do not prove a casual relationship between low blood lead levels and blood pressure, the findings are consistent with current epidemiologic and animal studies, indicating that a causal relationship is probable. To examine the potential health risks, the multiple logistic risk factor coefficients from the Pooling Project and Framingham studies were used to predict the impact of the 37% decrease in mean blood lead levels which occurred in adult white males from 1976 to 1980. As a result of this blood lead decrease, the calculations predicted a 4.7% decrease in the incidence of fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction over 10 years, a 6.7% decrease in the incidence of fatal and nonfatal strokes over 10 years, and a 5.5% decrease in the incidence of death from all causes over 11.5 years. In addition, as a result of this blood lead decrease, the predicted number of white males in this age group with hypertension (diastolic blood pressure greater than or equal to 90 mmHg) decreased by 17.5%.

Background: Most toxicologic studies focus on a single agent, although this does not reflect real-world scenarios in which humans are exposed to multiple chemicals.Objectives: We prospectively studied manganese–lead interactions in early childhood to examine whether manganese–lead coexposure is associated with neurodevelopmental deficiencies that are more severe than expected based on effects of exposure to each metal alone.Methods: Four hundred fifty-five children were enrolled at birth in an longitudinal cohort study in Mexico City, provided blood samples, and were followed until 36 months of age. We measured lead and manganese at 12 and 24 months and assessed neurodevelopment at 6-month intervals from 12 to 36 months of age using Bayley Scales of Infant Development–II.Results: Mean (± SD) blood concentrations at 12 and 24 months were, respectively, 24.7 ± 5.9 μg/L and 21.5 ± 7.4 μg/L for manganese and 5.1 ± 2.6 μg/dL and 5.0 ± 2.9 μg/dL for lead. Mixed-effects models, including Bayley scores at five time points, showed a significant interaction over time: highest manganese quintile × continuous lead; mental development score, β = –1.27 [95% confidence interval (CI): –2.18, –0.37]; psychomotor development score, β = –0.92 (95% CI: –1.76, –0.09). Slopes for the estimated 12-month lead effect on 18-month mental development and 24- through 36-month psychomotor development scores were steeper for children with high manganese than for children with midrange manganese levels.Conclusions: We observed evidence of synergism between lead and manganese, whereby lead toxicity was increased among children with high manganese coexposure. Findings highlight the importance of understanding health effects of mixed exposures, particularly during potentially sensitive developmental stages such as early childhood.

BackgroundThe U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) has estimated the neurological benefits of reductions in prenatal methylmercury (MeHg) exposure in past assessments of rules controlling mercury (Hg) emissions. A growing body of evidence suggests that MeHg exposure can also lead to increased risks of adverse cardiovascular impacts in exposed populations.Data extractionThe U.S. EPA assembled the authors of this article to participate in a workshop, where we reviewed the current science concerning cardiovascular health effects of MeHg exposure via fish and seafood consumption and provided recommendations concerning whether cardiovascular health effects should be included in future Hg regulatory impact analyses.Data synthesisWe found the body of evidence exploring the link between MeHg and acute myocardial infarction (MI) to be sufficiently strong to support its inclusion in future benefits analyses, based both on direct epidemiological evidence of an MeHg–MI link and on MeHg’s association with intermediary impacts that contribute to MI risk. Although additional research in this area would be beneficial to further clarify key characteristics of this relationship and the biological mechanisms that underlie it, we consider the current epidemiological literature sufficiently robust to support the development of a dose–response function.ConclusionsWe recommend the development of a dose–response function relating MeHg exposures with MIs for use in regulatory benefits analyses of future rules targeting Hg air emissions.

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