Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study

Abstract

BackgroundHeatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited.Methods and findingsWe collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave–mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971–2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031–2080 compared with 1971–2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections.ConclusionsThis study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.

Heat related illness among workers in Washington State: A descriptive study using workers' compensation claims, 2006‐2017

“…Without further controls and adaptation, the rate of occupational HRI will increase. Previous studies have also reported an expected increase in mortality among outdoor workers due to higher temperatures 35–37 . Sudden multiday heat events also pose a significant threat to the health and well‐being of workers because there is often no chance for workers to acclimatize to hotter temperatures 38…”

“…Previous studies have also reported an expected increase in mortality among outdoor workers due to higher temperatures. [35][36][37] Sudden multiday heat events also pose a significant threat to the health and well-being of workers because there is often no chance for workers to acclimatize to hotter temperatures. 38 Occupational HRI is unique because both the exertional workload and the environmental conditions such as ambient temperature, solar radiation, humidity, and wind speed contribute to a workers risk of HRI.…”

Projections of Human Exposure to Dangerous Heat in African Cities Under Multiple Socioeconomic and Climate Scenarios

“…This hinders the analysis of more extreme values of AT , which are for instance associated with extreme danger (when AT > 54 °C). Due to the lack of epidemiological and in situ evidence of heat‐related mortality in Africa (Gasparrini, Guo, Hashizume, Kinney, et al, ; Gasparrini, Guo, Hashizume, Lavigne, et al, ; Gasparrini et al, ; Guo et al, ; Mora et al, ), it remains difficult to define appropriate local thresholds. Finally, the HI that we employed also does not account for the duration of the extreme heat event and for the minimum temperature during the night, which are both important determinants of heat‐related health impacts (Li et al, ).…”

“…This hinders the analysis of more extreme values of AT, which are for instance associated with extreme danger (when AT > 54°C). Due to the lack of epidemiological and in situ evidence of heat-related mortality in Africa (Gasparrini, Guo, Hashizume, Kinney, et al, 2015;Gasparrini et al, 2017;Guo et al, 2018;Mora et al, 2017), it remains difficult to define appropriate local thresholds. Finally, the HI that we employed also does not account for the duration of the 10.1029/2018EF001020…”

Heat Wave Variations Across China Tied to Global SST Modes

“…The progressive intensification and proliferation of heat waves impose extensively impacts on environment and ecology, presenting intractable challenges to the vegetation development and bushfire risk (Ciais et al, 2005;Costello et al, 2009;Guo et al, 2018). A rapid growing literature provided evidence that the outburst of short-lasting heat waves led to the irreversible changes of ecosystem (Genevier et al, 2019;Hughes et al, unambiguous aggravation in the near future (Leng et al, 2015;Sun et al, 2016), would reduce the rice production and aggravate the water shortage (He et al, 2018;Piao et al, 2010;Wang et al, 2013;Wang et al, 2017).…”