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Bark beetles cause significant tree mortality in western North America. The United States Forest Service coordinates annual insect and disease surveys (IDS) by observers in airplanes to map and quantify the tree mortality caused by beetles. The subjective nature of these surveys means that accuracy evaluation is important for characterizing uncertainty. Furthermore, the metric reported for quantifying tree mortality recently changed (2012–2018 depending in region) from killed trees per acre to percent tree mortality within damage polygons, posing challenges for linking older and newer records. Here we evaluated IDS severity estimates in a beetle-affected forest in northern Idaho, USA using fine-resolution satellite imagery, which permitted greater areal coverage than field data. We first used well-established methods to map beetle-caused tree mortality in two WorldView-2 (WV2) images with a high accuracy relative to field observations. Trees-per-acre measurements within collocated IDS polygons were then converted to percent mortality using three methods and evaluated with the WV2 maps. The overall accuracies for the three methods ranged from 35–38% (for methods that used five percent-mortality classes) and 49–56% (three classes). When IDS and WV2 estimates of mortality severity that were within ±15% of each other were considered accurate, overall accuracies were 71–78%. Within the aerial survey damage polygons, the total mortality area tended to be overestimated relative to WV2. WV2 imagery identified ~50% more mortality across the study region compared with the IDS methods, with most of the difference occurring where damage was low severity or in wilderness areas. Severity of Douglas-fir beetle-caused tree mortality was estimated the most accurately, whereas severity of mountain pine beetle-caused tree mortality was estimated the least accurately. Future studies that control for temporal ambiguity between IDS and satellite imagery, as well as IDS spatial error, might provide better assessments of IDS severity accuracy. Our study increases the usefulness of the rich aerial survey database by providing estimates of uncertainty in the IDS database of tree mortality severity.

Forest insect outbreaks have caused and will continue to cause extensive tree mortality worldwide, affecting ecosystem services provided by forests. Remote sensing is an effective tool for detecting and mapping tree mortality caused by forest insect outbreaks. In this study, we map insect-caused tree mortality across three coniferous forests in the Western United States for the years 1984 to 2018. First, we mapped mortality at the tree level using field observations and high-resolution multispectral imagery collected in 2010, 2011, and 2018. Using these high-resolution maps of tree mortality as reference images, we then classified moderate-resolution Landsat imagery as disturbed or undisturbed and for disturbed pixels, predicted percent tree mortality with random forest (RF) models. The classification approach and RF models were then applied to time series of Landsat imagery generated with Google Earth Engine (GEE) to create annual maps of percent tree mortality. We separated disturbed from undisturbed forest with overall accuracies of 74% to 80%. Cross-validated RF models explained 61% to 68% of the variation in percent tree mortality within disturbed 30-m pixels. Landsat-derived maps of tree mortality were comparable to vector aerial survey data for a variety of insect agents, in terms of spatial patterns of mortality and annual estimates of total mortality area. However, low-level tree mortality was not always detected. We conclude that our methodology has the potential to generate reasonable estimates of annual tree mortality across large extents.

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From 1991 to 1996, Jeffrey pine beetles (Dendroctonus jeffreyi Hopkins) (JPB) caused tree mortality throughout the Lake Tahoe Basin during a severe drought. Census data were collected annually on 10,721 trees to assess patterns of JPB-caused mortality. This represents the most extensive tree-level, spatiotemporal dataset collected to-date documenting bark beetle activity. Our study was an exploratory assessment of characteristics associated with the probability of successful JPB massattack (P JPB ) and group aggregation behavior that occurred throughout various outbreak phases. Numerous characteristics associated with P JPB varied by outbreak phase although population pressure and forest density had positive associations during all phases. During the incipient phase, JPBs caused mortality in individual trees and small groups within toeslope topographic positions and P JPB had a negative relationship with stem diameter. In the epidemic phase, JPB activity occurred in all topographic positions and caused mortality in spatially expanding clusters. P JPB had a curvilinear relationship with tree diameter and a negative relationship with proximity to nearest brood tree. Majority (92-96 %) of mass-attacked trees were within 30 m of a brood tree during the peak epidemic years. During the post-epidemic phase, mortality clusters progressively decreased while dispersal distances between mass-attacked and brood trees increased. Post-epidemic P JPB had a negative relationship with stem diameter and mortality was concentrated in the mid and upper-slope topographic positions. Results indicate mortality predictions are reasonable for the epidemic phase but not for incipient and post-epidemic phases. Ecological factors influencing JPB-caused tree mortality, clustered mortality patterns, and transitions from environmental to dynamic determinism are discussed.