Silvopastoral systems are traditional components of the landscape in the Swiss Jura Mountains, and are promising approaches for the sustainable management of mountain areas worldwide. Due to complex vegetation dynamics, pasture-woodlands are very vulnerable to the currently occurring land use and climate changes. Therefore, management requires integrative long-term predictions of successional trends. We present a refined version of the spatially explicit, dynamic simulation model WoodPaM with improved climate sensitivity of simulated vegetation. We investigate pasture-woodland dynamics by applying an innovative combination of retrospective simulations starting in the Middle Ages with prospective simulations following two climate change scenarios. The retrospective simulations demonstrate the strong dependency of the landscape mosaic on both climate and management. In high elevation mountain pastures, climate cooling during the Little Ice Age hindered simulated tree regeneration and reduced forage production of grasslands. Both led to an increase in open grassland and to a structural simplification of the landscape. In turn, climate warming afterwards showed the opposite effect. At lower elevations, high cattle stocking rates generally dominate simulated succession, leading to a slow development of quite homogenous landscapes whose structures are hardly affected by historical climate variability. Aerial photographs suggest that logging and windstorms critically shaped the current landscape, both homogenizing mosaic structures that emerge from selective grazing. Simulations of climate change scenarios suggest delayed but inevitable structural changes in the landscape mosaic and a temporary breakdown of the ecosystem service wood production. The population of currently dominating Norway spruce collapses due to simulated drought. Spruce is only slowly replaced either by beech under moderate warming or by Scots pine under extreme warming. In general, the shift in tree species dominance results in landscapes of less structural richness than today. In order to maintain the mosaic structure of pasture-woodlands, we recommend a future increase in cattle stocking on mountain pastures. The (re-) introduction of mixed herds (cattle with horses, sheep, and goats) could mitigate the simulated trend towards structural homogenization of the forest-grassland mosaic because diverse browsing effects selectively control tree regeneration and would counteract simulated forest encroachment. This could prevent the loss of species-rich open grasslands and forest-grassland ecotones. Forest management should respect forest-grassland mosaics and ecotones by following the traditional selective felling of single trees instead of large clear-cutting. Additionally, beech regeneration should be promoted from now on in order to smoothen tree species replacement with warming and to ensure the continuous provision of forest ecosystem services

This study examines the effects of land-use policies and natural events on the evolution of two wooded pastures in the Jura Mountains in Switzerland between 1934 and 2000. The socioeconomic context and the local conditions were seen as major driving forces influencing land management practices which in turn redefined land-use policies. We studied the dynamics of the Jura Mountains' wooded pastures, combining a thorough knowledge of the historic context with aerial image analysis. Besides pointing out general milestones in the evolution of Swiss land policy, we compiled chronicles on the management for both study sites on the basis of archives and interviews. Aerial images taken at time intervals of approximately 15 years were chosen to identify land-cover changes. The method used to analyze them relied on a structural classification of phytocoenoses, thus allowing the determination of four categories of tree-cover densities ranging from unwooded pastures to ungrazed forest. We reported overall aerial changes for each tree density class as well as spatial transitions from one category to another. The combination of spatial statistics with qualitative data depicting the evolution of the historic context gives a better understanding of the land-use changes and their rationale. The most important changes in tree density occurred during World War II and resulted in a more open landscape. The intensive use of wooded pastures during the war was the consequence of a high demand for wood and food resources. Postwar protectionist regulations, agricultural subsidies, and technical improvements maintained considerable pressure on wooded pastures. Storms and drought episodes further exacerbated this process in some areas. The trend then reversed from the 1970s onwards because of the limitations put on milk production and the falling price of wood. This resulted in a more extensive use of pastures, leading to tree encroachment. However, remote sites were more impacted than pastures closer to inhabited areas, which exhibited a trend towards more segregation between grassland and densely wooded pastures. With both extensification and segregation of land use, the complex vegetation mosaic and the landscape diversity that characterize wooded pastures are threatened but still offer good economic opportunities that call for differentiated management strategies

Background:Body mass index (BMI) may cluster in space among adults and be spatially dependent. Whether BMI clusters among children and how age-specific BMI clusters are related remains unknown. We aimed to identify and compare the spatial dependence of BMI in adults and children in a Swiss general population, taking into account the area's income level.Methods:Geo-referenced data from the Bus Santé study (adults, n=6663) and Geneva School Health Service (children, n=3601) were used. We implemented global (Moran's I) and local (local indicators of spatial association (LISA)) indices of spatial autocorrelation to investigate the spatial dependence of BMI in adults (35–74 years) and children (6–7 years). Weight and height were measured using standardized procedures. Five spatial autocorrelation classes (LISA clusters) were defined including the high–high BMI class (high BMI participant's BMI value correlated with high BMI-neighbors' mean BMI values). The spatial distributions of clusters were compared between adults and children with and without adjustment for area's income level.Results:In both adults and children, BMI was clearly not distributed at random across the State of Geneva. Both adults' and children's BMIs were associated with the mean BMI of their neighborhood. We found that the clusters of higher BMI in adults and children are located in close, yet different, areas of the state. Significant clusters of high versus low BMIs were clearly identified in both adults and children. Area's income level was associated with children's BMI clusters.Conclusions:BMI clusters show a specific spatial dependence in adults and children from the general population. Using a fine-scale spatial analytic approach, we identified life course-specific clusters that could guide tailored interventions.

ObjectiveBody mass index (BMI) may cluster in space among adults and be spatially dependent. Whether and how BMI clusters evolve over time in a population is currently unknown. We aimed to determine the spatial dependence of BMI and its 5-year evolution in a Swiss general adult urban population, taking into account the neighbourhood-level and individual-level characteristics.DesignCohort study.SettingSwiss general urban population.Participants6481 georeferenced individuals from the CoLaus cohort at baseline (age range 35–74 years, period=2003–2006) and 4460 at follow-up (period=2009–2012).Outcome measuresBody weight and height were measured by trained healthcare professionals with participants standing without shoes in light indoor clothing. BMI was calculated as weight (kg) divided by height squared (m2). Participants were geocoded using their postal address (geographic coordinates of the place of residence). Getis-Ord Gi statistic was used to measure the spatial dependence of BMI values at baseline and its evolution at follow-up.ResultsBMI was not randomly distributed across the city. At baseline and at follow-up, significant clusters of high versus low BMIs were identified and remained stable during the two periods. These clusters were meaningfully attenuated after adjustment for neighbourhood-level income but not individual-level characteristics. Similar results were observed among participants who showed a significant weight gain.ConclusionsTo the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to report longitudinal changes in BMI clusters in adults from a general population. Spatial clusters of high BMI persisted over a 5-year period and were mainly influenced by neighbourhood-level income.

Recent and future evolution of the silvopastoral landscape in the Jura vaudois Land-use management in silvopastoral landscapes is particularly complex because such ecosystems depend on a subtle equilibrium in the management scheme which aims to provide various ecological goods and services such as fodder, timber and biodiversity, as well as areas for leisure and attractive scenery. In this study we investigated land-use changes in the Parc naturel régional Jura vaudois, and the changes in tree cover density in two pastures using land-use statistics and aerial photographs. A prospective modelling approach was also undertaken on one pasture to assess changes in the landscape structure under two climate scenarios. A general tendency towards segregation between closed forests and open pastures was observed. The agriculture policy has markedly influenced the dynamics of tree cover density, but this effect depended very much on the local situation, for example, the proximity of a village, which allows a better optimization of farm management. The simulation of future development of these landscapes suggests that one might expect large changes in the structure and composition of the vegetation because of climate change. In the long run, areas of high tree densities will expand, and spruce will give way to beech and pine, depending on the warming intensity. Nevertheless, adaptation to new environmental conditions for sustaining ecological goods and services will call for management measures appropriate to the intensity of climate change. Furthermore, an active adaptive management based on experimentation and innovation, as well as allowing collaboration between scientists and land managers will be required to face and mitigate the ecological problems associated with climate change.