Background: The transition to a carbon neutral society such as that envisaged in the European Union Green Deal requires careful and comprehensive planning. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) and energy system models (ESMs) are both commonly used for policy advice and in the process of policy design. In Europe, a vast landscape of these models has emerged and both kinds of models have been part of numerous model comparison and model linking exercises. However, IAMs and ESMs have rarely been compared or linked with one another. Methods: This study conducts an explorative comparison and identifies possible flows of information between 11 of the integrated assessment and energy system models in the European Climate and Energy Modelling Forum. The study identifies and compares regional aggregations and commonly reported variables We define harmonised regions and a subset of shared result variables that enable the comparison of results across the models. Results: The results highlight similarities and differences on final electricity demand, electricity supply and hydrogen across three levels of aggregation. However, the differences between the regional aggregation of the models limit detailed analysis. Conclusions: This first-of-its-kind comparison and analysis of modelling results across model type boundaries provides modellers and policymakers with a better understanding of how to interpret both IAM and ESM results. It also highlights the need for community standards for region definitions and information about reported variables to facilitate future comparisons of this kind.
The EU emissions trading system (EU ETS) is a key driver behind Europe’s decarbonization. Coinciding with two major reforms to tighten the cap, prices have increased tenfold between 2017 and 2021 to 80 €/tCO2 and above, completely changing the investment decisions in electricity and industry sectors. But can price movements be explained through these reforms alone? We here argue that the emission cap changes are not sufficient to explain the price jumps and offer a more comprehensive explanation: Our results suggest that the price increase was strongly driven by actors becoming more farsighted when policymakers signaled high long-term commitment to climate targets by implementing ambitious reforms. With these assumptions, our model reproduces the historic price path and shows present prices to be consistent with EU reduction targets. To underline the role of credibility, we test what would happen if a crisis undermines policy credibility such that actors become myopic again, demonstrating that carbon prices could plummet and endanger the energy transition.
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