Background Tonsillar and base of tongue squamous cell carcinoma (TSCC/BOTSCC) has increased. In Stockholm, the proportion of human papillomavirus (HPV)‐positive cases and the incidence of TSCC rose between 1970 and 2006 then stabilized. Here, HPV‐prevalence, and TSCC/BOTSCC incidence 2000‐2016, in Stockholm and Sweden were followed. Methods Incidence data for 2000‐2016 were obtained from the Swedish Cancer Registry. TSCC/BOTSCC biopsies, 2013‐2016 from Stockholm, were examined for HPV DNA and p16INK4a, or data obtained from medical reports. For cases 2000‐2012, data were available from previous studies. Results The incidence of TSCC/BOTSCC has continued to rise in Stockholm and Sweden 2000‐2016, especially after 2008. HPV DNA and p16INK4a analysis was determined for 795 Stockholm cases from 2000 to 2016, with 72% being HPV DNA and p16INK4a positive 2013‐2016, and 70% positive 2000‐2016. Conclusion During 2000‐2016, especially after 2008, the incidence of TSCC/BOTSCC has continued to increase in Stockholm and Sweden, with an HPV‐prevalence of approximately 70% in Stockholm.

Projecting the burden of pancreatic cancer over time provides essential information to effectively plan measures for its management and prevention. Here, we obtained data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study between 1990 and 2019, to model how pancreatic cancer will affect the 27 countries of the European Union (EU) plus the United Kingdom (the pre-Brexit EU-28) until 2039 by conducting the Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis. The number of new pancreatic cancer cases in the EU-28 was 59 000 in 1990, 109 000 in 2019 and projected to be 147 000 in 2039. This corresponded to 60 000, 109 000 and 155 000 for deaths, and a loss of 1.3 million, 2.0 million and 2.7 million for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), respectively. The most pronounced increase of the crude incidence rate was observed and projected to be in the population older than 80 years. The agestandardized rate (ASR) of incidence, however, increased from 8.6 to 10.1 per 100 000 person-years during 1990-2019 but was projected to remain stable during 2019-2039. At the same time, our models only predicted a mild increase in the ASR of mortality until 2039. The fraction of pancreatic cancer mortality attributable to tobacco consumption decreased during 1990-2019, but we found upward trends for the attributable fractions for high fasting plasma glucose and high body mass index.In conclusion, a substantial increase in counts of incidence, mortality and DALYs lost of pancreatic cancer in the EU-28 is projected over the next two decades, which indicates the need for future health policies and interventions.

AIP is a challenging disease for diagnosis and treatment. Cortisone treatment is generally successful and provides clinical remission in the large majority of patients (>90%). In the further course of the disease, a considerable number of patients develop PEI and diabetes. Only one-quarter of patients exhibit on imaging the characteristic "sausage-like" pancreas (diffuse enlargement), approximately three-quarters had a focal mass that could be misdiagnosed as pancreatic malignancy.

ObjectivesTo characterise the association between type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) subtypes (new-onset T2DM (NODM) or long-standing T2DM (LSDM)) and pancreatic cancer (PC) risk, to explore the direction of causation through Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis and to assess the mediation role of body mass index (BMI).DesignInformation about T2DM and related factors was collected from 2018 PC cases and 1540 controls from the PanGenEU (European Study into Digestive Illnesses and Genetics) study. A subset of PC cases and controls had glycated haemoglobin, C-peptide and genotype data. Multivariate logistic regression models were applied to derive ORs and 95% CIs. T2DM and PC-related single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) were used as instrumental variables (IVs) in bidirectional MR analysis to test for two-way causal associations between PC, NODM and LSDM. Indirect and direct effects of the BMI-T2DM-PC association were further explored using mediation analysis.ResultsT2DM was associated with an increased PC risk when compared with non-T2DM (OR=2.50; 95% CI: 2.05 to 3.05), the risk being greater for NODM (OR=6.39; 95% CI: 4.18 to 9.78) and insulin users (OR=3.69; 95% CI: 2.80 to 4.86). The causal association between T2DM (57-SNP IV) and PC was not statistically significant (ORLSDM=1.08, 95% CI: 0.86 to 1.29, ORNODM=1.06, 95% CI: 0.95 to 1.17). In contrast, there was a causal association between PC (40-SNP IV) and NODM (OR=2.85; 95% CI: 2.04 to 3.98), although genetic pleiotropy was present (MR-Egger: p value=0.03). Potential mediating effects of BMI (125-SNPs as IV), particularly in terms of weight loss, were evidenced on the NODM-PC association (indirect effect for BMI in previous years=0.55).ConclusionFindings of this study do not support a causal effect of LSDM on PC, but suggest that PC causes NODM. The interplay between obesity, PC and T2DM is complex.

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BACKGROUND: Despite smoking being a well-established risk factor for pancreatic cancer (PC), there is a need to further characterize PC risk according to lifespan smoking patterns and other smoking features such as tobacco type. Our aim was to deeply investigate them within a large European case-control study.METHODS: Tobacco smoking habits and other relevant information was obtained from 2,009 cases and 1,532 controls recruited in the PanGenEU study using standardized tools. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate PC risk by smoking characteristics and interactions with other PC risk factors. Fractional polynomials and restricted cubic splines were used to test for non-linearity of the doseresponse relationships and to analyse their shape.RESULTS: Relative to never-smokers, current smokers (OR=1.72, 95%CI: 1.39-2.12), those inhaling into the throat (OR=1.48, 95%CI: 1.11-1.99), chest (OR=1.33, 95%CI: 1.12-1.58), or using non-filtered cigarettes (OR=1.69, 95%CI: 1.10-2.61), were all at an increased PC risk. PC risk was highest in current black tobacco smokers (OR=2.09, 95%CI: 1.31-3.41), followed by blond tobacco smokers (OR=1.43, 95%CI: 1.01-2.04). Childhood exposure to tobacco smoke relative to parental smoking was also associated with increased PC risk (OR=1.24, 95%CI: 1.03-1.49). Dose-response relationships for smoking duration, intensity, cumulative dose, and smoking cessation were non-linear and showed different shapes by tobacco type. Effect modification by family history of PC and diabetes was likely.CONCLUSIONS: This study reveals differences in PC risk by tobacco type and other habit characteristics, as well as non-linear risk associations.IMPACT: This characterization of smoking-related PC risk profiles may help in defining PC high-risk populations.

Clinical outcomes of chemotherapy for patients with advanced pancreatic adenocarcinoma in a real-world setting might differ from outcomes in randomized clinical trials (RCTs). Here we show in a single-institution cohort of 595 patients that median overall survival (OS) of patients who received gemcitabine alone (n = 185; 6.6 months (95% CI; 5.5–7.7)) was the same as in pivotal RCTs. Gemcitabine/capecitabine (n = 60; 10.6 months (95% CI; 7.8–13.3)) and gemcitabine/nab-paclitaxel (n = 66; 9.8 months (95% CI; 7.9–11.8)) resulted in a longer median OS and fluorouracil/oxaliplatin/irinotecan (n = 31, 9.9 months (95% CI; 8.1–11.7)) resulted in a shorter median OS than previously reported. Fluorouracil/oxaliplatin (n = 35, 5.8 months (95% CI; 4.5–7)) and best supportive care (n = 206, 1.8 months (95% CI; 1.5–2.1)) could not be benchmarked against any RCTs. The degree of protocol adherence explained differences between real-world outcomes and the respective RCTs, while exposure to second-line treatments did not.

Background Selection of high-risk subjects for endoscopic screening of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) lacks individual predictive tools based on environmental risk factors. Methods We performed a large population-based case-control study of 1418 ESCC cases and 1992 controls in a high-risk area of China. Information on potential risk factors was collected via face-to-face interview using an electronic structured questionnaire. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using unconditional logistic regression models, and predictive nomograms were established accordingly. A weighted analysis was further conducted to introduce age into predictive nomograms due to frequency matching study design. Results Most cases were usually exposed to 4 to 6 risk factors, but most controls were usually exposed to 3 to 5 risk factors. The AUCs of male and female predictive nomograms were 0.75 (95%CI: 0.72, 0.77) and 0.76 (95%CI: 0.73, 0.79), respectively. The weighted analysis adding age in the predictive model improved the AUC in both men and women (0.81 (95%CI: 0.79, 0.84) and 0.88 (95%CI: 0.85, 0.90), respectively). Conclusions An easy-to-use preclinical predictive tool is provided to select candidate population with high ESCC risk for endoscopic screening. Its usefulness needs to be further evaluated in future screening practice.