(1) Background: A tophus is a clinical manifestation of advanced gout, and in some patients could lead to joint deformities, fractures, and even serious complications in unusual sites. Therefore, to explore the factors related to the occurrence of tophi and establish a prediction model is clinically significant. (2) Objective: to study the occurrence of tophi in patients with gout and to construct a predictive model to evaluate its predictive efficacy. (3) Methods: The clinical data of 702 gout patients were analyzed by using cross-sectional data of North Sichuan Medical College. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate logistic regression were used to analyze predictors. Multiple machine learning (ML) classification models are integrated to analyze and identify the optimal model, and Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) interpretation was developed for personalized risk assessment. (4) Results: Compliance of urate-lowering therapy (ULT), Body Mass Index (BMI), course of disease, annual attack frequency, polyjoint involvement, history of drinking, family history of gout, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) were the predictors of the occurrence of tophi. Logistic classification model was the optimal model, test set area under curve (AUC) (95% confidence interval, CI): 0.888 (0.839–0.937), accuracy: 0.763, sensitivity: 0.852, and specificity: 0.803. (5) Conclusions: We constructed a logistic regression model and explained it with the SHAP method, providing evidence for preventing tophus and guidance for individual treatment of different patients.
Background:: Polymyositis (PM) and dermatomyositis (DM) are non-suppurative and autoimmune inflammatory diseases of striated muscle. Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is a group of heterogeneous diseases that mainly involve the pulmonary interstitium, alveoli, and/or bronchioles, also known as diffuse parenchymal lung disease (DPLD). A significant cause of death in persons with polymyositis (PM) and dermatomyositis (DM) is concurrent interstitial lung disease (ILD). However, research on the clinical characteristics and associated influencing factors of PM/DM combined with ILD (PM/DM-ILD) is currently scarce in China. Objective:: The study aimed to probe the clinical features and risk factors of PM/DM-ILD. Methods:: The data of 130 patients with PM/DM were gathered. General medical status, clinical symptoms, laboratory parameters, high-resolution CT, therapeutic outcomes, and prognoses were retrospectively reviewed in patients with PM/DM with (ILD group) and without (NILD) ILD. Results:: The age of the ILD group (n=65) was more than the NILD group (n=65), and the difference was statistically significant; there were no significant between-group variations in the PM/DM ratio, sex, or duration of the disease. The initial symptoms were arthritis and respiratory symptoms in the ILD group, and myasthenia symptoms in the NILD group. Incidences of Raynaud’s phenomenon, dry cough, expectoration, dyspnea on exertion, arthritis, fever, total globulin (GLOB), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), and anti-Jo-1 antibody rate were higher for ILD; however, albumin (ALB), creatine kinase aspartate aminotransferase activity ratio (CK/AST) and CK levels were significantly lower in the ILD group. Bivariate logistic regression analysis showed age, dry cough, arthritis, dyspnea on exertion, anti-Jo-1 antibody, and elevated GLOB to be independent risk factors for ILD among patients with PM/DM. Conclusion:: Advanced age, dry cough, arthritis, dyspnea on exertion, anti-Jo-1 antibody positivity, and elevated GLOB level are risk factors for PM/DM-ILD. This information could be utilized to carefully monitor changing lung function in these patients.
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