Objective The primary aim of this study was to assess the cumulative incidence of cause-specific mortality (CSM) and other cause-specific mortality (OCSM) for patients with advanced gallbladder cancer (GBC), and then to develop a nomogram based on competing-risk analysis to forecast CSM. Methods We identified the patients with GBC with specific screening criteria and from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. We calculated the cumulative incidence function for CSM and OCSM, and constructed a competing-risk nomogram based on the Fine and Gray’s proportional subdistribution hazard regression model to forecast the probability of CSM of these patients. In addition, the concordance index and calibration plot were performed to validate the novel established model. Results A total of 1411 patients were included in this study. The 1-, 2-, and 3-year overall cumulative mortalities were 46.2, 62.2, and 69.6% for CSM, respectively, while they were 6.2, 8.7, and 10.4% for OCSM. Additionally, the 1-, 2-, and 3-year estimates of overall survival were 47.6, 29.1, and 19.9% for above these patients, respectively. We also developed a competing-risk nomogram to estimate the CSM. The concordance index was 0.775 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.750–0.800) in the training set and that was 0.765 (95% CI: 0.730–0.800) in the internal validation set, which suggests the robustness of the novel established model. Furthermore, the calibration curves and concordance index demonstrated that the nomogram was well-calibrated and demonstrated good discriminative ability. Conclusions The ample sample allowed us to develop a reliable model which demonstrated better calibration and discrimination for predicting the probability of CSM of patients with advanced GBC.

Background:The correlation between cirrhosis and the long-term oncological outcome in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is debatable, and this study aimed to explore the impact of cirrhosis on the long-term prognosis of patients with ICC. Methods: A total of 398 ICC patients were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2000 to 2018. The diagnosis of cirrhosis was based on the Ishak fibrosis score provided by the SEER database. Propensity score matching (PSM) and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) analysis were performed to minimize the potential confounders. Overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were observed, and the Cox regression model was used to select potential factors that affect the prognosis of the patients with ICC.Results: Of the included patients, there were 142 patients and 256 patients in the cirrhotic and noncirrhotic groups, respectively. Additionally, 299 of 398 patients (75.1%) died following a median follow-up of 19 months (interquartile range [IQR],7, 43). The OS and CSS indicated advantage trend in the noncirrhotic group than the cirrhotic group in either the original cohort (OS: 17 vs 12 months, p = 0.023; CSS: 26 vs 15 months, p = 0.004) or the PSM (OS: 17 vs 12 months, p = 0.52; CSS: 22 vs 14 months, p = 0.15) or IPTW (OS: 20 vs 13 months, p = 0.163; CSS: 22 vs 15 months, p = 0.059) cohorts. Subgroup analyses displayed that the prognosis of patients who experienced surgery for ICC in the noncirrhotic group was better than that of the cirrhotic group with regard to OS and CSS.Conclusions: Collectively, it seems that the noncirrhotic patients have similar relative OS but better CSS compared with that of the cirrhotic patients.