Competing-risk nomogram for predicting survival in patients with advanced (stage III/IV) gallbladder cancer: A SEER population-based study

Abstract

Objective The primary aim of this study was to assess the cumulative incidence of cause-specific mortality (CSM) and other cause-specific mortality (OCSM) for patients with advanced gallbladder cancer (GBC), and then to develop a nomogram based on competing-risk analysis to forecast CSM. Methods We identified the patients with GBC with specific screening criteria and from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. We calculated the cumulative incidence function for CSM and OCSM, and constructed a competing-risk nomogram based on the Fine and Gray’s proportional subdistribution hazard regression model to forecast the probability of CSM of these patients. In addition, the concordance index and calibration plot were performed to validate the novel established model. Results A total of 1411 patients were included in this study. The 1-, 2-, and 3-year overall cumulative mortalities were 46.2, 62.2, and 69.6% for CSM, respectively, while they were 6.2, 8.7, and 10.4% for OCSM. Additionally, the 1-, 2-, and 3-year estimates of overall survival were 47.6, 29.1, and 19.9% for above these patients, respectively. We also developed a competing-risk nomogram to estimate the CSM. The concordance index was 0.775 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.750–0.800) in the training set and that was 0.765 (95% CI: 0.730–0.800) in the internal validation set, which suggests the robustness of the novel established model. Furthermore, the calibration curves and concordance index demonstrated that the nomogram was well-calibrated and demonstrated good discriminative ability. Conclusions The ample sample allowed us to develop a reliable model which demonstrated better calibration and discrimination for predicting the probability of CSM of patients with advanced GBC.

Competing risk nomogram for predicting prognosis of patients with spinal and pelvic chordoma: A SEER-based retrospective study

“…Moreover, chordoma is a rare tumor, and the cases of previous studies are always limited to a single center, so it is difficult to construct a prognostic nomogram in a limited population and even introduces confusion and bias, making the study results inaccurate [40]. By contrast, the SEER database, which covers a large number of cancer patients [41], was used in this study, and 485 cases were included in the final analysis, which is a relatively large cohort compared to numerous previous studies. Additionally, unlike other studies that simply delete the censored information, a large portion of missing values in this study was imputed by consulting the related field in the database.…”

New trends in diagnosis and management of gallbladder carcinoma

“…For a T1b follow-up of 69.9 mo, the disease-free survival was 92%[ 50 ]. For advanced stage III-IV GB carcinoma patients, the overall survival was as follows: 1-year at 47.6%; 2-year at 29.1%; and 3-year at 19.9%[ 157 ].…”

Genetic characteristics and clinical-specific survival prediction in elderly patients with gallbladder cancer: a genetic and population-based study

“…Compared to the traditional TNM stage, it can include more tumor characteristics and has gained extensive usage in forecasting the outcomes of various cancer types (8)(9)(10). Several nomograms have been established for prognosis prediction, lymph node metastasis prediction, or distant metastasis prediction in GBC (11)(12)(13)(14)(15)(16). Still, there are no nomograms that are exploited based on elderly patients with GBC.…”