Summary Background Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. Methods We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. Findings In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2–7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5–7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0–5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8–9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6–8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4–6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2–10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water we and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4–1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. Interpretation Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed s...

OBJECTIVEType 2 diabetes (T2DM) is associated with brain atrophy and cerebrovascular disease. We aimed to define the regional distribution of brain atrophy in T2DM and to examine whether atrophy or cerebrovascular lesions are feasible links between T2DM and cognitive function.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODSThis cross-sectional study used magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans and cognitive tests in 350 participants with T2DM and 363 participants without T2DM. With voxel-based morphometry, we studied the regional distribution of atrophy in T2DM. We measured cerebrovascular lesions (infarcts, microbleeds, and white matter hyperintensity [WMH] volume) and atrophy (gray matter, white matter, and hippocampal volumes) while blinded to T2DM status. With use of multivariable regression, we examined for mediation or effect modification of the association between T2DM and cognitive measures by MRI measures.RESULTST2DM was associated with more cerebral infarcts and lower total gray, white, and hippocampal volumes (all P < 0.05) but not with microbleeds or WMH. T2DM-related gray matter loss was distributed mainly in medial temporal, anterior cingulate, and medial frontal lobes, and white matter loss was distributed in frontal and temporal regions. T2DM was associated with poorer visuospatial construction, planning, visual memory, and speed (P ≤ 0.05) independent of age, sex, education, and vascular risk factors. The strength of these associations was attenuated by almost one-half when adjusted for hippocampal and total gray volumes but was unchanged by adjustment for cerebrovascular lesions or white matter volume.CONCLUSIONSCortical atrophy in T2DM resembles patterns seen in preclinical Alzheimer disease. Neurodegeneration rather than cerebrovascular lesions may play a key role in T2DM-related cognitive impairment.

AimsThis multicentre, randomized trial compared three strategies of AF ablation: ablation of complex fractionated electrograms (CFE) alone, pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) alone, and combined PVI + CFE ablation, using standardized automated mapping software.Methods and resultsPatients with drug-refractory, high-burden paroxysmal (episodes >6 h, >4 in 6 months) or persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) were enrolled at eight centres. Patients (n = 100) were randomized to one of three arms. For CFE alone (n = 34), spontaneous/induced AF was mapped using validated, automated CFE software and all sites <120 ms were ablated until AF termination/non-inducibility. For PVI (n = 32), all four PV antra were isolated and confirmed using a circular catheter. For PVI + CFE (n = 34), all four PV antra were isolated, followed by AF induction and ablation of all CFE sites until AF termination/non-inducibility. Patients were followed at 3, 6, and 12 months with a visit, ECG, 48 h Holter. Atrial fibrillation symptoms were confirmed by loop recording. Repeat procedures were allowed within the first 6 months. The primary endpoint was freedom from AF >30 s at 1 year. Patients (age 57 ± 10 years, LA size 42 ± 6 mm) were 35% persistent AF. In CFE, ablation terminated AF in 68%. Only 0.4 PVs per patient were isolated as a result of CFE. In PVI, 94% had all four PVs successfully isolated. In PVI + CFE, 94% had all four PVs isolated, 76% had inducible AF with additional CFE ablation, with 73% termination of AF. There were significantly more repeat procedures in the CFE arm (47%) vs. PVI (31%) or PVI + CFE (15%) (P = 0.01). After one procedure, PVI + CFE had a significantly higher freedom from AF (74%) compared with PVI (48%) and CFE (29%) (P = 0.004). After two procedures, PVI + CFE still had the highest success (88%) compared with PVI (68%) and CFE (38%) (P = 0.001). Ninety-six percent of these patients were off anti-arrhythmics. Complications were two tamponades, no PV stenosis, and no mortality.ConclusionIn high-burden paroxysmal/persistent AF, PVI + CFE has the highest freedom from AF vs. PVI or CFE alone after one or two procedures. Complex fractionated electrogram alone has the lowest one and two procedure success rates with a higher incidence of repeat procedures.ClinicalTrials.gov identifier number NCT00367757.

DBI is significantly and independently associated with falls in older people living in RACFs. Interventional studies designed for this population are needed to determine whether reducing DBI, through dose reduction or cessation of anticholinergic and sedative drugs, can prevent falls.

Background and Purpose-The association between cerebral white matter lesions (WMLs) and the risk of falls in older people is uncertain, with no supporting prospective evidence. We aimed to determine the risk of incident falls associated with WML volume, and the interactions between WML volume, gait, and other sensorimotor factors leading to falls. Methods-We conducted a prospective, population-based study (nϭ294, mean age 72.3 years, independently mobile).Volumetric MRI, computerized gait measures, and sensorimotor measures of falls risk were obtained at baseline. Incident falls were recorded prospectively over a 12-month period. Using regression modeling, we estimated the risk of incident falls associated with baseline WML volume. Results-Increasing baseline WML volume was independently associated with any incident fall (Pϭ0.01) and multiple incident falls (Pϭ0.02). The risk of incident falls was doubled in people with lesion volumes in the highest quintile of its distribution compared with the lowest (adjusted relative risk, 2.32; 95% CI, 1.28 -4.14).Greater lesion volume was also associated with poorer gait and greater gait variability (both PϽ0.001).

These are the first longitudinal data demonstrating the relative contributions of brain atrophy and WML progression to gait decline in older people. Effect modification according to age and infarcts suggests a contribution of reduced physiological and brain reserve. Interventions targeting brain health may be important in preventing mobility decline in older people.

Background: The aim of this study is to determine the risk factors of delirium after cardiac surgery. Methods: A systematic literature search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, and Science Citation Index limited to 2008 to 2011 and review of studies was conducted. Eligible studies were of randomized controlled trials or cohort studies, using delirium assessment tool, reporting at least one risk factor associated with delirium, and available to full text. Results: The search identified 106 potentially relevant publications; only 25 met selection criteria. Our systematic review revealed 33 risk factors: 17 predisposing and 16 precipitating factors for delirium after elective cardiac surgery. The most established predisposing risk factors were age, depression, and history of stroke, cognitive impairment, diabetes mellitus, and atrial fibrillation. The most established precipitating risk factors were duration of surgery, prolonged intubation, surgery type, red blood cell transfusion, elevation of inflammatory markers and plasma cortisol level, and postoperative complications. Moreover, sedation with dexmedetomidine may significantly predict the absence of postoperative delirium. Conclusions: Postoperative delirium is related to several risk factors following cardiac surgery. Sedation with dexmedetomidine and fast‐track weaning protocols may decrease the incidence of delirium in cardiac surgical patients. (J Card Surg 2012;27:481‐492)

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