Patients exposed to a surgical safety checklist experience better postoperative outcomes, but this could simply reflect wider quality of care in hospitals where checklist use is routine.

BackgroundAssessing future risk of exacerbations is an important component of asthma management. Existing studies have investigated short‐ but not long‐term risk. Problematic asthma patients with unfavorable long‐term disease trajectory and persistently frequent severe exacerbations need to be identified early to guide treatment.AimTo identify distinct trajectories of severe exacerbation rates among “problematic asthma” patients and develop a risk score to predict the most unfavorable trajectory.MethodsSevere exacerbation rates over five years for 177 “problematic asthma” patients presenting to a specialist asthma clinic were tracked. Distinct trajectories of severe exacerbation rates were identified using group‐based trajectory modeling. Baseline predictors of trajectory were identified and used to develop a clinical risk score for predicting the most unfavorable trajectory.ResultsThree distinct trajectories were found: 58.5% had rare intermittent severe exacerbations (“infrequent”), 32.0% had frequent severe exacerbations at baseline but improved subsequently (“nonpersistently frequent”), and 9.5% exhibited persistently frequent severe exacerbations, with the highest incidence of near‐fatal asthma (“persistently frequent”). A clinical risk score composed of ≥2 severe exacerbations in the past year (+2 points), history of near‐fatal asthma (+1 point), body mass index ≥25kg/m2 (+1 point), obstructive sleep apnea (+1 point), gastroesophageal reflux (+1 point), and depression (+1 point) was predictive of the “persistently frequent” trajectory (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.84, sensitivity 72.2%, specificity 81.1% using cutoff ≥3 points). The trajectories and clinical risk score had excellent performance in an independent validation cohort.ConclusionsPatients with problematic asthma follow distinct illness trajectories over a period of five years. We have derived and validated a clinical risk score that accurately identifies patients who will have persistently frequent severe exacerbations in the future.

The proposed criteria of control were only fulfilled by 21% of patients. The suggested cut offs and their predictive value for poor outcomes need to be refined in prospective studies.

Background Assessing risk of future exacerbations is an important component in COPD management. History of exacerbation is a strong and independent predictor of future exacerbations, and the criterion of ≥2 nonhospitalized or ≥1 hospitalized exacerbation is often used to identify high-risk patients in whom therapy should be intensified. However, other factors or “treatable traits” also contribute to risk of exacerbation. Objective The objective of the study was to develop and externally validate a novel clinical prediction model for risk of hospitalized COPD exacerbations based on both exacerbation history and treatable traits. Patients and methods A total of 237 patients from the COPD Registry of Changi General Hospital, Singapore, aged 75±9 years and with mean post-bronchodilator FEV 1 60%±20% predicted, formed the derivation cohort. Hospitalized exacerbation rate was modeled using zero-inflated negative binomial regression. Calibration was assessed by graphically comparing the agreement between predicted and observed annual hospitalized exacerbation rates. Predictive (discriminative) accuracy of the model for identifying high-risk patients (defined as experiencing ≥1 hospitalized exacerbations) was assessed with area under the curve (AUC) and receiver operating characteristics analyses, and compared to other existing risk indices. We externally validated the prediction model using a multicenter dataset comprising 419 COPD patients. Results The final model included hospitalized exacerbation rate in the previous year, history of acute invasive/noninvasive ventilation, coronary artery disease, bronchiectasis, and sputum nontuberculous mycobacteria isolation. There was excellent agreement between predicted and observed annual hospitalized exacerbation rates. AUC was 0.789 indicating good discriminative accuracy, and was significantly higher than the AUC of the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) risk assessment criterion (history of ≥1 hospitalized exacerbation in the previous year) and the age, dyspnea, and obstruction index. When applied to the independent multicenter validation cohort, the model was well-calibrated and discrimination was good. Conclusion We have derived and externally validated a novel risk prediction model for COPD hospitalizations which outperforms several other risk indices. Our model incorporates several treatable traits which can be targeted for intervention to reduce risk of future hospitalized exacerbations.

Background and objective: The concept of clinical control in COPD has been developed to help in treatment decisions, but it requires validation in prospective studies. Methods: This international, multicentre, prospective study aimed to validate the concept of control in COPD. Patients with COPD were classified as controlled/uncontrolled by clinical criteria or CAT scores at baseline and followed up for 18 months. The main outcome was the difference in rate of a composite endpoint of moderate and severe exacerbations or death over the 18-month follow-up period. Results: A total of 307 patients were analysed (mean age = 68.6 years and mean FEV 1 % = 52.5%). Up to 65% and 37.9% of patients were classified as controlled by clinical criteria or CAT, respectively. Controlled patients had significantly less exacerbations during follow-up (by clinical criteria: 1.1 vs 2.6, P < 0.001; by CAT: 1.1 vs 1.9, P = 0.014). Time to first exacerbation was significantly prolonged for patients controlled by clinical criteria only (median: 93 days, IQR: 63; 242 vs 274 days, IQR: 221; 497 days; P < 0.001). Control status by clinical criteria was a better predictor of exacerbations compared to CAT criteria (AUC: 0.67 vs 0.57). Conclusion: Control status, defined by easy-to-obtain clinical criteria, is predictive of future exacerbation risk and time to the next exacerbation. The concept of control can be used in clinical practice at each clinical visit as a complement to the current recommendations of initial treatment proposed by guidelines.

The study was designed and coordinated by the Respiratory Effectiveness Group (REG; www.effectivenessevaluation.org; Cambridge, UK) and delivered by Optimum Patient Care (OPC; www.optimumpatientcare.org). Funding: The study was funded by an unrestricted grant from Novartis AG.

We aimed to compare clinical characteristics between Asian and Western chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients. This was a sub-analysis of an international, multicenter, prospective cohort study. Asian patients were enrolled in Singapore and South Korea. Western patients were enrolled in Spain, Poland, Ireland, the United Kingdom, and Malta. A total of 349 patients were analyzed. Among them, 110 (32%) patients were Asian and 239 (68%) Western. Male sex was more predominant in Asian than in Western (95% versus 63%, respectively; P <0.01). Body mass index was significantly lower in Asian (23.5 versus 27.1; P <0.01). The proportion of patients with a history of exacerbation was lower in Asian (12% versus 64%; P <0.01). Although patients were enrolled by same inclusion criteria, there were several differences between Asian and Western COPD patients. Our study has shown unbiased real-world differences between Asian and Western COPD patients. Since prospective follow-up study is currently ongoing, the result of this study can be fundamental base of future analysis.

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