Little research has focused on the economic impact associated with climate-change induced wildland fire on natural ecosystems and the goods and services they provide. We examine changes in wildland fire patterns based on the U.S. Forest Service's MC1 dynamic global vegetation model from 2013 to 2115 under two pre-defined scenarios: a reference (i.e., business-as-usual) and a greenhouse gas mitigation policy scenario. We construct a habitat equivalency model under which fuels management activities, actions commonly undertaken to reduce the frequency and/or severity of wildland fire, are used to compensate for climate change-induced losses in ecosystem services on conservation lands in the contiguous U.S. resulting from wildland fire. The benefit of the greenhouse gas mitigation policy is equal to the difference in fuels management costs between the reference and policy scenarios. Results suggest present value ecosystem service benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation on the average of $3.5 billion (2005 dollars, assuming a three percent discount rate). Our analysis highlights the importance of considering loss of ecosystem services when evaluating the impacts of alternative greenhouse gas mitigation policies.

Climate change is altering wildfire activity across Alaska, with increased area burned projected for the future. Changes in wildfire are expected to affect the need for management and suppression resources; however, the potential economic implications of these needs have not been evaluated. We projected area burned and associated response costs to 2100 under relatively high and low climate forcing scenarios (representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5) using the Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code (ALFRESCO) model. We calculated unique response costs for each of the four fire management options (FMOs) currently used in Alaska that vary in suppression level using federal cost data. Cumulative area burned between 2006 and 2100 across Alaska averaged 46.7M ha under five climate models for RCP8.5 and 42.1M ha for RCP4.5, with estimated cumulative response costs of $1.2-2.1B and $1.1-2.0B, respectively (3% discount). The largest response costs were incurred for the Full FMO, an area of high suppression priority, but where risks to human life and property are relatively low. Projected response costs across the century indicated that costs would be largest annually in the 2090 era (2080-2099) under RCP8.5, totaling $41.9-72.9M per year. For RCP4.5, the highest costs were projected for the 2070 era (2060)(2061)(2062)(2063)(2064)(2065)(2066)(2067)(2068)(2069)(2070)(2071)(2072)(2073)(2074)(2075)(2076)(2077)(2078)(2079)

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