Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that is increasing the vulnerability of infrastructure. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and RCP4.5] using an infrastructure model modified to account for unique climate impacts at northern latitudes, including near-surface permafrost thaw. Additionally, we evaluated how proactive adaptation influenced economic impacts on select infrastructure types and developed first-order estimates of potential land losses associated with coastal erosion and lengthening of the coastal ice-free season for 12 communities. Cumulative estimated expenses from climate-related damage to infrastructure without adaptation measures (hereafter damages) from 2015 to 2099 totaled $5.5 billion (2015 dollars, 3% discount) for RCP8.5 and $4.2 billion for RCP4.5, suggesting that reducing greenhouse gas emissions could lessen damages by $1.3 billion this century. The distribution of damages varied across the state, with the largest damages projected for the interior and southcentral Alaska. The largest source of damages was road flooding caused by increased precipitation followed by damages to buildings associated with near-surface permafrost thaw. Smaller damages were observed for airports, railroads, and pipelines. Proactive adaptation reduced total projected cumulative expenditures to $2.9 billion for RCP8.5 and $2.3 billion for RCP4.5. For road flooding, adaptation provided an annual savings of 80-100% across four study eras. For nearly all infrastructure types and time periods evaluated, damages and adaptation costs were larger for RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. Estimated coastal erosion losses were also larger for RCP8.5.Alaska | climate change | damages | adaptation | infrastructure

In boreal forests, climate warming is shifting the wildfire disturbance regime to more frequent fires that burn more deeply into organic soils, releasing sequestered carbon to the atmosphere. To understand the destabilization of carbon storage, it is necessary to consider these effects in the context of long-term ecological change. In Alaskan boreal forests, we found that shifts in dominant plant species catalyzed by severe fire compensated for greater combustion of soil carbon over decadal time scales. Severe burning of organic soils shifted tree dominance from slow-growing black spruce to fast-growing deciduous broadleaf trees, resulting in a net increase in carbon storage by a factor of 5 over the disturbance cycle. Reduced fire activity in future deciduous-dominated boreal forests could increase the tenure of this carbon on the landscape, thereby mitigating the feedback to climate warming.

In acid-impacted forests, decreased soil pH and calcium (Ca) availability have the potential to influence biotic and abiotic controls on carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling. We investigated the effects of liming on above- and belowground C and N pools and fluxes 19 years after lime addition to the Woods Lake Watershed, Adirondack Park, New York, USA. Soil pH and exchangeable Ca remained elevated in the forest floor and upper mineral soil of limed areas. Forest floor C and N stocks were significantly larger in limed plots (68 vs. 31 Mg C/ha, and 3.0 vs. 1.5 Mg N/ha), resulting from a larger mass of Oa material. Liming reduced soil basal respiration rates by 17% and 43% in the Oe and Oa horizons, respectively. Net N mineralization was significantly lower in the limed soils for both forest floor horizons. Additional measurements of forest floor depth outside of our study plots, but within the treatment and control subcatchments also showed a deeper forest floor in limed areas; however, the mean depth of limed forest floor was 5 cm shallower than that observed in our study plots. Using a differential equation model of forest floor C dynamics, we found that liming effects on C fluxes measured within our study plots could explain the small observed increase in the Oe C stock but were not large enough to explain the increase in the Oa. Our catchment-wide assessment of forest floor depth, however, indicates that our plot analysis may be an overestimate of ecosystem-scale C and N stocks. Our results suggest that the mechanisms identified in our study, primarily liming-induced reduction in decomposition rates, may account for much of the observed increase in forest floor C. These findings emphasize the importance of understanding of the effects of liming in hardwood forests, and the long-term impacts of acid deposition on forest C and N uptake and retention.

No abstract