Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation

Abstract

Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that is increasing the vulnerability of infrastructure. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and RCP4.5] using an infrastructure model modified to account for unique climate impacts at northern latitudes, including near-surface permafrost thaw. Additionally, we evaluated how proactive adaptation influenced economic impacts on select infrastructure types and developed first-order estimates of potential land losses associated with coastal erosion and lengthening of the coastal ice-free season for 12 communities. Cumulative estimated expenses from climate-related damage to infrastructure without adaptation measures (hereafter damages) from 2015 to 2099 totaled $5.5 billion (2015 dollars, 3% discount) for RCP8.5 and $4.2 billion for RCP4.5, suggesting that reducing greenhouse gas emissions could lessen damages by $1.3 billion this century. The distribution of damages varied across the state, with the largest damages projected for the interior and southcentral Alaska. The largest source of damages was road flooding caused by increased precipitation followed by damages to buildings associated with near-surface permafrost thaw. Smaller damages were observed for airports, railroads, and pipelines. Proactive adaptation reduced total projected cumulative expenditures to $2.9 billion for RCP8.5 and $2.3 billion for RCP4.5. For road flooding, adaptation provided an annual savings of 80-100% across four study eras. For nearly all infrastructure types and time periods evaluated, damages and adaptation costs were larger for RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. Estimated coastal erosion losses were also larger for RCP8.5.Alaska | climate change | damages | adaptation | infrastructure

Statistical Forecasting of Current and Future Circum‐Arctic Ground Temperatures and Active Layer Thickness

“…Large uncertainties in the ALT forecasts indicate that at present, the ALT observation network is insufficient for characterizing active layer dynamics at hemisphere scale. This is important since the Arctic is in the center of environmental change and economic activities, and new infrastructure are being planned to areas that are likely to undergo drastic changes, for example, in ground bearing capacity due to permafrost thaw (Melvin et al, 2017). This is important since the Arctic is in the center of environmental change and economic activities, and new infrastructure are being planned to areas that are likely to undergo drastic changes, for example, in ground bearing capacity due to permafrost thaw (Melvin et al, 2017).…”

The Expanding Footprint of Rapid Arctic Change

“…Arctic warming is causing widespread thawing of permafrost areas (Romanovsky et al, ) leading to infrastructure damage to buildings, roads, and utilities in northern communities as ice subsides and the ground becomes waterlogged. Alaska infrastructure damage over 2015–2099 is estimated at $5.5 billion under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RCP8.5 “business as usual” emission scenario, with almost half of that cost due directly to permafrost thaw (Melvin et al, ). The impact of permafrost thaw goes beyond the Arctic because the large amount of biomass carbon contained in permafrost is beginning to decompose and release carbon dioxide and methane to the atmosphere (Schuur et al, ).…”

Proactive, Reactive, and Inactive Pathways for Scientists in a Changing World

“…Institutions, however, also need to be proactive, in order to detect and anticipate future problems which are not yet apparent to society, and to produce timely information and advice for problems which are looming but have not yet attracted social priority and reaction. Melvin et al (), for example, predicted that the cumulative expenditure on climate‐related damage to Alaskan public infrastructure between 2015 and 2099 would decrease from $5.5 to $2.9 billion under RCP8.5 and from $4.2 to $2.3 billion under RCP4.5 with the adoption of proactive responses. A movement toward proactive pathways (Figures and ) as the default response to climate change will entail better communication of the risks and the associated uncertainty of probabilities in science and decision‐making (Rabinovich & Morton, 2012).…”