In this article, we examine how communities can maximize deterrence of crime while minimizing cost and police intrusion on public life. Using 3,720 hot spot-days, we show that the “sweet spot” duration of police absence, to maximize the residual deterrence of crime, was a full four days after the last day of targeting police patrol at each hot spot. Over a 248-day period, we randomly reshuffled 15 separate hot spots daily into either treatment (targeted police patrols) or control (no targeted patrols) for that day, so that all locations repeatedly switched between randomly assigned groups. This repeated crossover design (Cochrane & Cox, 1957; Fienberg et al., 1980) included random periods of up to 20 consecutive days in which individual hot spots remained in the control condition, allowing us to measure how soon, and by what trajectory, the residual deterrent effect of targeted patrolling wore off. After four days without patrolling, there was a sudden termination of residual deterrence, marked by a 66% rise in offense frequency, and a 395% spike in our index of crime harm (House & Neyroud 2018), compared to the treatment condition. It may be possible to deploy less, not more policing and still maximize deterrent effects.
Self-selection policing is an approach whereby serious underlying criminality is detected by an offender’s minor crimes (known as trigger offences). Strategic offences are offences that indicate an increased likelihood that the associated offender will engage in later offending. The purpose of this study was to determine if first-time serious traffic offending in Western Australia indicates previous and/or future non-traffic criminality, thereby demonstrating the utility of serious traffic offences as trigger offences and strategic offences. The authors collated the crime data of all first-time serious traffic offenders in Western Australia between December 2004 and December 2014. Using this data, survival analyses were conducted to determine if and when a first-time serious traffic offender committed an initial non-traffic offence within 10 years of their first serious traffic offence. When comparing this data to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the authors found that first-time serious traffic offenders are more likely than the average Western Australian to have a previous or future initial non-traffic offence. Some groups of first-time traffic offenders were more likely to commit non-traffic offences than others including males, individuals under the age of 25, drug drivers and drivers without authority. These results support the use of first-time serious traffic offences as trigger/strategic offences and could be used to identify and divert traffic offenders with versatile criminal histories and traffic offenders at risk of future criminal activity.
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