Abstract. Complex systems are commonly modeled using nonlinear dynamical systems. These models are often high-dimensional and chaotic. An important goal in studying physical systems through the lens of mathematical models is to determine when the system undergoes changes in qualitative behavior. A detailed description of the dynamics can be difficult or impossible to obtain for high-dimensional and chaotic systems. Therefore, a more sensible goal is to recognize and mark transitions of a system between qualitatively different regimes of behavior. In practice, one is interested in developing techniques for detection of such transitions from sparse observations, possibly contaminated by noise. In this paper we develop a framework to accurately tag different regimes of complex systems based on topological features. In particular, our framework works with a high degree of success in picking out a cyclically orbiting regime from a stationary equilibrium regime in high-dimensional stochastic dynamical systems.

There are three distinct questions associated with Simpson's paradox. (i) Why or in what sense is Simpson's paradox a paradox? (ii) What is the proper analysis of the paradox? (iii) How one should proceed when confronted with a typical case of the paradox? We propose a "formal" answer to the first two questions which, among other things, includes deductive proofs for important theorems regarding Simpson's paradox. Our account contrasts sharply with Pearl's causal (and questionable) account of the first two questions. We argue that the "how to proceed question?" does not have a unique response, and that it depends on the context of the problem. We evaluate an objection to our account by comparing ours with Blyth's account of the paradox. Our research on the paradox suggests that the "how to proceed question" needs to be divorced from what makes Simpson's paradox "paradoxical." Davin Nelson was a former student

We consider a model for substrate-depletion oscillations in genetic systems, based on a stochastic differential equation with a slowly evolving external signal. We show the existence of critical transitions in the system. We apply two methods to numerically test the synthetic time series generated by the system for early indicators of critical transitions: a detrended fluctuation analysis method, and a novel method based on topological data analysis (persistence diagrams).1991 Mathematics Subject Classification. Primary: 92D20; 34C23; 55N99. Secondary: 34F05; 57M99.

Abstract. We study parameter estimation for non-global parameters in a low-dimensional chaotic model using the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). By modifying existing techniques for using observational data to estimate global parameters, we present a methodology whereby spatially-varying parameters can be estimated using observations only within a localized region of space. Taking a low-dimensional nonlinear chaotic conceptual model for atmospheric dynamics as our numerical testbed, we show that this parameter estimation methodology accurately estimates parameters which vary in both space and time, as well as parameters representing physics absent from the model.

Persistence diagrams are a useful tool from topological data analysis that provide a concise description of a filtered topological space. They are even more useful in practice because they come with a notion of a metric, the Wasserstein distance (closely related to but not the same as the homonymous metric from probability theory). Further, this metric provides a notion of stability; that is, small noise in the input causes at worst small differences in the output. In this paper, we show that the Wasserstein distance for persistence diagrams can be computed through quantum annealing. We provide a formulation of the problem as a quadratic unconstrained binary optimization problem, or QUBO, and prove correctness. Finally, we test our algorithm, exploring parameter choices and problem size capabilities, using a D-Wave 2000Q quantum computer.