Climate change is a serious threat to crop productivity in regions that are already food insecure. We assessed the projected impacts of climate change on the yield of eight major crops in Africa and South Asia using a systematic review and meta-analysis of data in 52 original publications from an initial screen of 1144 studies. Here we show that the projected mean change in yield of all crops is −8% by the 2050s in both regions. Across Africa, mean yield changes of −17% (wheat), −5% (maize), −15% (sorghum) and −10% (millet) and across South Asia of −16% (maize) and −11% (sorghum) were estimated. No mean change in yield was detected for rice. The limited number of studies identified for cassava, sugarcane and yams precluded any opportunity to conduct a meta-analysis for these crops. Variation about the projected mean yield change for all crops was smaller in studies that used an ensemble of >3 climate (GCM) models. Conversely, complex simulation studies that used biophysical crop models showed the greatest variation in mean yield changes. Evidence of crop yield impact in Africa and South Asia is robust for wheat, maize, sorghum and millet, and either inconclusive, absent or contradictory for rice, cassava and sugarcane.
Climate change is expected to modify rainfall, temperature and catchment hydrological responses across the world, and adapting to these water-related changes is a pressing challenge. This paper reviews the impact of anthropogenic climate change on water in the UK and looks at projections of future change. The natural variability of the UK climate makes change hard to detect; only historical increases in air temperature can be attributed to anthropogenic climate forcing, but over the last 50 years more winter rainfall has been falling in intense events. Future changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration could lead to changed flow regimes and impacts on water quality, aquatic ecosystems and water availability. Summer flows may decrease on average, but floods may become larger and more frequent. River and lake water quality may decline as a result of higher water temperatures, lower river flows and increased algal blooms in summer, and because of higher flows in the winter. In communicating this important work, researchers should pay particular attention to explaining confidence and uncertainty clearly. Much of the relevant research is either global or highly localized: decision-makers would benefit from more studies that address water and climate change at a spatial and temporal scale appropriate for the decisions they make.
Irrigated agriculture constitutes the largest consumer of freshwater in the Mediterranean region and provides a major source of income and employment for rural livelihoods. However, increasing droughts and water scarcity have highlighted concerns regarding the environmental sustainability of agriculture in the region. An integrated assessment combining a gridded water balance model with a geodatabase and GIS has been developed and used to assess the water demand and energy footprint of irrigated production in the region. Modelled outputs were linked with crop yield and water resources data to estimate water (m 3 kg −1 ) and energy (CO 2 kg −1 ) productivity and identify vulnerable areas or 'hotspots'. For a selected key crops in the region, irrigation accounts for 61 km 3 yr −1 of water abstraction and 1.78 Gt CO 2 emissions yr −1 , with most emissions from sunflower (73 kg CO 2 /t) and cotton (60 kg CO 2 /t) production. Wheat is a major strategic crop in the region and was estimated to have a water productivity of 1000 t Mm −3 and emissions of 31 kg CO 2 /t. Irrigation modernization would save around 8 km 3 of water but would correspondingly increase CO 2 emissions by around +135%. Shifting from rain-fed to irrigated production would increase irrigation demand to 166 km 3 yr −1 (+137%) whilst CO 2 emissions would rise by +270%. The study has major policy implications for understanding the water-energy-food nexus in the region and the trade-offs between strategies to save water, reduce CO 2 emissions and/or intensify food production.
In many countries, drought is the natural hazard that causes the greatest agronomic impacts. After recurrent droughts, farmers typically learn from experience and implement changes in management to reduce their future drought risks and impacts. This paper aims to understand how irrigated agriculture in a humid climate has been affected by past droughts and how different actors have adapted their activities and strategies over time to increase their resilience. After examining recent drought episodes from an agroclimatic perspective, information from an online survey was combined with evidence from semistructured interviews with farmers to assess: drought risk perceptions, impacts of past drought events, management strategies at different scales (regional to farm level) and responses to future risks. Interviews with the water regulatory agency were also conducted to explore their attitudes and decision-making processes during drought events. The results highlight how agricultural drought management strategies evolve over time, including how specific aspects have helped to reduce future drought risks. The importance of adopting a vertically integrated drought management approach in the farming sector coupled with a better understanding of past drought impacts and management options is shown to be crucial for improving decisionmaking during future drought events.
6There is growing scientific interest in the potential role that precision irrigation (PI) can make 7 towards improving crop productivity, and increasing water and energy efficiency in irrigated 8 agriculture. Most progress has been made in arid and semi-arid climates for use in high value 9crop production where irrigation costs coupled with concerns regarding water scarcity have 10 stimulated PI innovation and development. In temperate and humid climates where irrigation 11 is supplemental to rainfall, PI is less developed but nevertheless offers scope to make more 12 effective use of rainfall, help reduce the non-beneficial losses associated with irrigation (deep 13 drainage, nitrate leaching) and provide farmers with evidence to demonstrate environmentally 14 sustainable practices to processors and retailers. This paper reports on recent experiences in 15 developing precision irrigation in UK field-scale agriculture, drawing on evidence from field 16 research and modelling studies. By combining data from these sources, a critical evaluation 17 focusing on selected technical, agronomic and engineering challenges that need to be 18 overcome are described, including issues regarding PI scheduling, and the delineation of 19 irrigation management zones to ensure compatibility with existing methods of overhead 20 irrigation. The findings have relevance to other countries where irrigation is supplemental and 21 where precision agriculture is gaining popularity. 22 Please refer to any applicable publisher terms of use. three locations in England on soils with low, medium and high available water capacity.
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