PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to provide a new and systematic approach towards strategic foresight by combining traditional external scenarios (market‐based approach) with internal scenarios (resource‐based approach) into a future scorecard, which can be used to describe alternative internal development paths for an organization.Design/methodology/approachThe paper builds on the existing literature as well as on multiple case examples to illustrate the application of the future scorecard.FindingsThe findings of this paper are that it is possible to combine the external (market‐based) and internal (resource‐based) view to create a strategic early warning system.Practical implicationsThe implications for practitioners are twofold, first, the paper outlines the importance of integrating a future perspective into performance measurement systems, second, it demonstrates the applicability of scenario thinking for the internal resource‐based view of the firm.Originality/valueThe paper combines thinking of the market‐based and the resource‐based view of the firm in order to provide a new tool to supplement most static measurement approaches with a tool that monitors the future developments – externally and internally. Scenarios are traditionally used to describe possible alternative future developments in the external environment, which then inform current strategy assessment and future strategy development. However, with a shift in focus away from the market‐based paradigm and towards a resource‐based view of strategy, scenarios can also be used to describe alternative internal development paths for an organization. These two types of scenarios can then be systematically developed and combined to form a significant element of a strategic early warning system – the future scorecard.

To survive and grow in an era of uncertainty, companies should strive not only for a single visionary view, which most likely corresponds with their expectations, but instead they should try to acquire multiple views that describe the whole ”window of opportunities”. The development of external market scenarios to assess current strategies is the usual way of coping with these uncertainties. Today this traditional scenario approach has to be extended in four directions: the use of market scenarios to systematically develop future‐robust strategies, the use of alternative strategy scenarios to address uncertainties within an organization, the use of scenarios as a basis for strategic early warning processes and the combination of performance measurement and strategic early warning in a scenario‐based future scorecard. In conclusion it is shown that scenarios could significantly help to bridge the gap between strategy implementation and early‐warning processes.

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The holistic development of companies is carried out at three levels. (Figure 1)On the strategic level, the company decides about its vision. This includes basic and normative objectives-e.g. in the form of business principles-as well as fundamental strategic objectives like positioning and core competencies.On the tactical level, the vision is put into a business model and detailed roadmaps. Hence, objectives are substantiated, strategy, product, or technology roadmaps are designed, and the behavior within competition is simulated.On the operative level, this guideline is implemented by concrete planning. Business plans are developed, investment decisions are made, risks are identified and evaluated and crises are managed.On all three levels, future developments have to be taken into account. However, the necessary instruments differ from each other, whereas their development can be looked at from a bottom-up perspective:On the operative level, it is necessary to get a clear picture of the future on a short-term basis. Therefore, mainly quantitative and extrapolation-based prognoses are used.On the tactical level, this kind of description of the future is inadequate or is simply not feasible. Hence, expected or already visible mid-term changes must be identified in the form of trends, and considered when making the decision.On the strategic level, even trend considerations do not prove sufficient. As a result, several alternative future images have to be considered, while at the same time coherences between factors and trends must be taken into account. Therefore, at this level, scenarios are the core foresight instrument.The term "scenario" is used to describe a variety of different objects-from simple alternative projections ("the high-price-scenario") to results of complex simulation-models. In this article, we use the term "scenario" only for future images that