The future scorecard: combining external and internal scenarios to create strategic foresight

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to provide a new and systematic approach towards strategic foresight by combining traditional external scenarios (market‐based approach) with internal scenarios (resource‐based approach) into a future scorecard, which can be used to describe alternative internal development paths for an organization.Design/methodology/approachThe paper builds on the existing literature as well as on multiple case examples to illustrate the application of the future scorecard.FindingsThe findings of this paper are that it is possible to combine the external (market‐based) and internal (resource‐based) view to create a strategic early warning system.Practical implicationsThe implications for practitioners are twofold, first, the paper outlines the importance of integrating a future perspective into performance measurement systems, second, it demonstrates the applicability of scenario thinking for the internal resource‐based view of the firm.Originality/valueThe paper combines thinking of the market‐based and the resource‐based view of the firm in order to provide a new tool to supplement most static measurement approaches with a tool that monitors the future developments – externally and internally. Scenarios are traditionally used to describe possible alternative future developments in the external environment, which then inform current strategy assessment and future strategy development. However, with a shift in focus away from the market‐based paradigm and towards a resource‐based view of strategy, scenarios can also be used to describe alternative internal development paths for an organization. These two types of scenarios can then be systematically developed and combined to form a significant element of a strategic early warning system – the future scorecard.

A stratégiai előrelátás elméleteinek érvényesülése a vállalati gyakorlatban

“…Courtney (2001) szerint a legsikeresebb stratégiai tervezés és a döntéshozatali folyamatok fő céljának tekinthető az előrelátás. Ily módon elmondható, hogy az előrelátás segítségével megteremthető az a tudás, mellyel proaktívan formálható az evolúció (Hamel, Pralahad, 1994, 2005idézve Amsteus, 2011b. Uotila et al (2005) megállapítása szerint, az előrelátás a bizonytalanságok és a kockázatok minimalizálására szolgál.…”

“…Ennek kapcsán a Fink et al (2005) által 2005-ben előterjesztett cikk tanulságainak rövid, ámbár sokatmondó összefoglalója alátámasztja a jövőbeli jelzőrendszerek kiépítésének relevanciáját és alkalmazhatóságának módszereit:…”

Foresight capabilities and SME product/service adaptiveness: the moderating effect of industry dynamism

“…Foresight has been referred to variously as an assortment of future oriented practices, process, behaviour, programmes, techniques, tools, and sometimes capabilities (Asmteus, 2008;Fink et al, 2005;Horton, 1999;Oner and Saritas, 2005;Paliokaitė et al, 2014). Terms such as corporate foresight, managerial foresight, strategic foresight and at times national foresight have been used interchangeably within the literature to refer to future-oriented techniques and practices (Hirsch et al, 2013;Major et al, 2001;Rohrbeck, 2012).…”

Developing of Sustainability Balanced Scorecard for the Chemical Industry: Preliminary Evidence from a Case Analysis

“…Underlying these sustainability strategies are both internal and external factors (Ghobadian et al, 1998;Fink et al, 2005). The next section discusses how these variables can be linked and used for the implementation of sustainability strategies and business excellence.…”