This paper addresses the issue of forecasting individual items within a product line; where each line includes several independent but closely related products. The purpose of the research was to reduce the overall forecasting burden by developing and assessing schemes of disaggregating forecasts of a total product line to the related individual items. Measures were developed to determine appropriate disaggregated methodologies and to compare the forecast accuracy of individual product forecasts versus disaggregated totals. Several of the procedures used were based upon extensions of the combination of forecast research and applied to disaggregations of total forecasts of product lines. The objective was to identify situations when it was advantageous to produce disaggregated forecasts, and if advantageous, which method of disaggregation to utilize. This involved identification of the general conceptual characteristics within a set of product line data that might cause a disaggregation method to produce relatively accurate forecasts. These conceptual characteristics provided guidelines for forecasters on how to select a disaggregation method and under what conditions a particular method is applicable. Perhaps the greatest forecasting effort stems from the generation of these disaggregate forecasts due to the very large number of forecasts potentially involved. To illustrate, a firm 0277-6693/90/030233-22$11 .OO
Economics, University of New Hampshire, D u r h a m , N H 03824, USA The role of private investors ill the equity financing of new technology-based ventures is examined. The research studies the venturc capital market from a demand and supply perspective and delineates the role of the private investor with that of the more visible venture capital funds. The entrepreneur's perceptions of raising venture capital arc also csaminecl. 'I'hc research suggests that the private investor is the most common source of seed and start-up financing, especially if the round of financing is less than US1$500 000. M'hile private investors are harder to find than thcir venturc capital fund counterparts, it appears to take less time to close a deal with private investors and the financing is less expensive than financing frorn venture capital funds. Both private investors and venture capital funds add value to thcir in\~estmcnts through the establishment of working relationships with the ventures they finance, and entrepreneurs perceive these working relationships to be a productive component of the deal.
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