Thorpe, J., Wolfe, S. A. and Houston, B. 2008. Potential impacts of climate change on grazing capacity of native grasslands in the Canadian prairies. Can. J. Soil Sci. 88: 595Á609. Relationships between climate and native grassland production in the Canadian prairies were modelled and used to estimate the potential impacts of climate change on grazing capacity. Field measurements of production were related to climate variables and water balance estimates using regression analysis. Historical time series showed that year-to-year production is most closely correlated with annual actual evapotranspiration, whereas geographic patterns revealed that average production is most closely related to the annual water deficit. Climate and production estimates from the US Great Plains represent potential analogues for the Canadian prairies in the 2050s. Analysis of geographic patterns using Canadian and US data showed that production can be related to actual evapotranspiration (Model 1) or the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration (Model 2). The proportion of warmseason (C 4 ) grasses has a significant effect on production in these models. A third independent model (Model 3) using US production data was used for comparison. Five general circulation model (GCM) scenarios covering a range of predictions simulated warmer climates of the 2050s. The production models were used to estimate changes in grassland production. On loamy soils, Model 1 predicts increases in production whereas Models 2 and 3 predict decreases. However, all predicted changes are modest, indicating that Canadian grasslands will probably remain productive over the next 50 yr. In addition, warm-season grasses could increase, particularly on sandy soils, thus benefiting productivity.Key words: Climate change, grazing capacity, grasslands, prairies Thorpe, J., Wolfe, S. A. et Houston, B. 2008. Conse´quences potentielles du changement climatique sur la capacite´de paissance des paˆturages naturels dans les Prairies canadiennes. Can. J. Soil Sci. 88: 595Á609. Les auteurs ont mode´lise´les relations entre le climat et la production des paˆturages naturels des Prairies canadiennes puis ont estime´l'incidence e´ventuelle du changement climatique sur la capacite´de paissance. La production mesure´e sur le terrain a e´te´associe´e aux variables climatiques ainsi qu'au bilan hydrique estimatif par une analyse de re´gression. Les se´ries chronologiques re´ve`lent que la variation annuelle de la production pre´sente la meilleure corre´lation avec l'e´vapotranspiration re´elle annuelle, alors que, selon les tendances ge´ographiques, la production moyenne est davantage relie´e au de´ficit hydrique annuel. Le climat et la production estimative des Grandes Plaines des É tats-Unis pourraient servir d'analogie a`ce a`quoi ressembleront les Prairies canadiennes dans les anne´es 2050. L'analyse des tendances ge´ographiques a`partir des donne´es canadiennes et ame´ricaines indique qu'on peut associer la production a`l'e´vapotranspiration re´elle (mode`le 1) ou au ratio ...
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