Potential impacts of climate change on grazing capacity of native grasslands in the Canadian prairies

Thorpe, Jeff; Wolfe, S A; Houston, Bill

doi:10.4141/cjss07094

Cited by 11 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Germination percentage and germination rate of C 4 species increased linearly under the AW regime ( Figure 1c and 2c ), while those of C 3 species increased and then decreased with the increasing temperature. This suggests that long term global asymmetric warming may favor seed germination of C 4 species, at least for the tested species, which is consistent with the model prediction by Thorpe et al [35] and inference from Sage and Kubien [36] . Spring events are changing more than autumn events as they are more sensitive to climate and are also undergoing the greatest alterations of climate relative to other seasons [37] .…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Germination Shifts of C3 and C4 Species under Simulated Global Warming Scenario

Zhang

Huang

et al. 2014

PLoS ONE

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Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination) of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night) and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night), simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature), maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Germination Shifts of C3 and C4 Species under Simulated Global Warming Scenario

Zhang

Huang

et al. 2014

PLoS ONE

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“…This projection suggests similar shifts toward earlier spring activity for the entire prairie ecosystem, which will presumably impact insect emergence and population dynamics. Thorpe et al (2008) investigated the climate projections of five global climate models on the productivity of Canadian native grasslands and concluded that despite significant increases in temperature, projected productivity (to 2050) did not change much from current productivity.…”

Section: Predictions Of Future Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although the current distribution of grasslands is attributed to both natural and anthropical forces, climate remains the dominant factor (Barnes 1959;Padbury et al 2002). It is not surprising, therefore, that production of prairie flora is strongly related to weather elements such as precipitation (Smoliak 1986;Thorpe et al 2008) and is well adapted to fluctuations in weather (Coupland 1958). For Canada's prairie grasslands, an extension of the Northern Great Plains, the climate component is characterized as predominantly continental.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Weather and climate patterns in Canada's prairie grasslands

McGinn¹

2010

Arthropods of Canadian Grasslands (Volume 1): Ecology and Interactions in Grassland Habitats

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Abstract. The underlying uniqueness of Canada's prairie grasslands is its aridity. The dominant air mass of this region is continental in nature and is associated with a relatively low amount of precipitation and high potential evaporation during the summer. Drought in this region is frequent, lasting one to two months on average, and presents a significant barrier to ecological capacity and agriculture. Severe droughts are associated with a stalled anticyclonic system that directs advected moist air around the region. Canada's prairie grasslands receive on average of between 300 and 550 mm of precipitation, most of which is received as rain in spring and summer. Over the last century, changes to the climate have resulted in a general warming trend that is projected to increase further as a result of an enhanced greenhouse gas effect. Native grassland plant diversity and insect populations may shift as a result of expected climate changes.Résumé. Les prairies canadiennes doivent leur caractère unique à leur aridité. La masse d'air dominante dans cette région est continentale, et se caractérise par un degré relativement faible de précipitations et une évaporativité élevée en été. Les sécheresses sont fréquentes dans cette région; elles durent en moyenne de un à deux mois et réduisent sensiblement la capacité limite du paysage et le rendement agricole. Les sécheresses graves sont causées par un système anticyclonique stable qui empêche les courants d'air humide de pénétrer dans la région. Les prairies canadiennes reçoivent en moyenne de 300 à 550 mm de précipitations, la plupart sous forme de pluie au printemps et en été. Au cours du dernier siècle, le changement climatique a provoqué un réchauffement général qui devrait s'intensifier sous l'effet de l'augmentation des concentrations de gaz à effet de serre. La diversité des espèces végétales indigènes et les populations d'insectes pourraient évoluer sous l'effet des changements climatiques attendus.

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“…Regarding future drought conditions, it is predicted that both warm and cool climate scenarios will result in an increase of potential evapotranspiration [24], while the precipitation over the growing season is expected to decrease [24,38]. Grasslands are a critical component of the prairie ecozone, as they preserve a variety of wildlife and provide substantial forage for livestock [39]. The drought has been a significant force for the change of production and the species composition of the prairie grasslands [40][41][42].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Grassland Phenology Response to Drought in the Canadian Prairies

2017

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Drought is a significant climatic disturbance in grasslands, yet the impact drought caused by global warming has on grassland phenology is still unclear. Our research investigates the long-term variability of grassland phenology in relation to drought in the Canadian prairies from 1982 to 2014. Based on the start of growing season (SOG) and the end of growing season (EOG) derived from Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) NDVI3g datasets, we found that grasslands demonstrated complex phenology trends over our study period. We retrieved the drought conditions of the prairie ecozone at multiple time scales from the 1-to 12-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We evaluated the correlations between the detrended time series of phenological metrics and SPEIs through Pearson correlation analysis and identified the dominant drought where the maximum correlations were found for each ecozone and each phenological metric. The dominant drought over preceding months account for 14-33% and 26-44% of the year-to-year variability of SOG and EOG, respectively, and fewer water deficits would favor an earlier SOG and delayed EOG. The drought-induced shifts in SOG and EOG were determined based on the correlation between the dominant drought and the year-to-year variability using ordinary least square (OLS) method. Our research also quantifies the correlation between precipitation and the evolution of the dominant droughts and the drought-induced shifts in grassland phenology. Every millimeter (mm) increase in precipitation accumulated over the dominant periods would cause SOG to occur 0.06-0.21 days earlier, and EOG to occur 0.23-0.45 days later. Our research reveals a complex phenology response in relation to drought in the Canadian prairie grasslands and demonstrates that drought is a significant factor in the timing of both SOG and EOG. Thus, it is necessary to include drought-related climatic variables when predicting grassland phenology response to climate change and variability.

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Potential impacts of climate change on grazing capacity of native grasslands in the Canadian prairies

Cited by 11 publications

References 34 publications

Germination Shifts of C3 and C4 Species under Simulated Global Warming Scenario

Germination Shifts of C3 and C4 Species under Simulated Global Warming Scenario

Weather and climate patterns in Canada's prairie grasslands

Grassland Phenology Response to Drought in the Canadian Prairies

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