We use ocean observations and reanalyses to investigate the sub-seasonal predictability of summer and fall sea ice area (SIA) in the western Arctic Ocean associated with lateral ocean heat transport (OHT) through Bering Strait and vertical OHT along the Alaskan coastline from Ekman divergence and upwelling. Results show predictive skill of spring Bering Strait OHT anomalies in the Chukchi and eastern East Siberian seas for June and July SIA, followed by a sharp drop in predictive skill in August, September, and October and a resurgence of the correlation in November during freeze-up. Fall upwelling of Pacific Waters along the Alaskan coastline - a mechanism that was proposed as a preconditioner for lower sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Beaufort Sea the following summer shows - minimal predictive strength on both local and regional scales for any months of the melt season. A statistical hindcast based on May Bering Strait OHT anomalies explains 74% of July Chukchi Sea SIA variance. Using OHT as a predictor of SIA anomalies in the Chukchi Sea improves hindcasts from the simple linear trend by 32% and predictions from spring sea ice thickness anomalies by 22%. This work highlights the importance of ocean heat anomalies for melt season sea ice prediction and provides observational evidence of sub-seasonal changes in forecast skill observed in model based forecasts of the Chukchi Sea.
The Arctic Ocean is becoming increasingly accessible to oil and natural gas exploration, marine shipping, tourism, and commercial fishing (United States Navy, 2014). The Chukchi Sea is especially important in this regard; it is resource rich and vessels transiting the Arctic Ocean must pass through it. Consequently, there has been increasing interest in the seasonal forecasting of sea ice conditions in the Chukchi Sea at lead times relevant to stakeholders (Serreze & Meier, 2019).
<p>The Davis Strait, located in Southern Baffin Bay between Greenland and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, is a key gateway of oceanic exchange between the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans. Large fluxes of fresh Arctic Waters through the Davis Strait potentially influence deep-water formation in the Labrador Sea, with implications for the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. From 2004-2017, and 2020-present, ocean temperatures, salinities, and velocities have been measured along a moored array spanning the entire strait, allowing for ocean transports to be assessed over both the continental shelves and central channel. Here we will present new data from 2011-2017, extending the previously published data for 2004-2010. Furthermore, the whole record has been updated, filling spatial and short temporal data gaps using average temperature, salinity, and velocity sections from high resolution Seaglider surveys from 2004 to 2010. These updated volume, freshwater, and watermass transports will increase understanding of changing oceanic conditions in Baffin Bay, as well as local and remote physical mechanisms that govern the Davis Strait throughflow on synoptic to interannual timescales.</p>
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