[1] We examine the trajectory of Arctic summer sea ice in seven projections from the Community Climate System Model and find that abrupt reductions are a common feature of these 21st century simulations. These events have decreasing September ice extent trends that are typically 4 times larger than comparable observed trends. One event exhibits a decrease from 6 million km 2 to 2 million km 2 in a decade, reaching near ice-free September conditions by 2040. In the simulations, ice retreat accelerates as thinning increases the open water formation efficiency for a given melt rate and the ice-albedo feedback increases shortwave absorption. The retreat is abrupt when ocean heat transport to the Arctic is rapidly increasing. Analysis from multiple climate models and three forcing scenarios indicates that abrupt reductions occur in simulations from over 50% of the models and suggests that reductions in future greenhouse gas emissions moderate the likelihood of these events.

[1] Sea ice ecosystems are characterized by microalgae living in brine inclusions. The growth rate of ice algae depends on light and nutrient supply. Here, the interactions between nutrients and brine dynamics under the influence of algae are investigated using a one-dimensional model. The model includes snow and ice thermodynamics with brine physics and an idealized sea ice biological component, characterized by one nutrient, namely, dissolved silica (DSi). In the model, DSi follows brine motion and is consumed by ice algae. Depending on physical ice characteristics, the brine flow is either advective, diffusive, or turbulent. The vertical profiles of ice salinity and DSi concentration are solutions of advection-diffusion equations. The model is configured to simulate the typical thermodynamic regimes of first-year Antarctic pack ice. The simulated vertical profiles of salinity and DSi qualitatively reproduce observations. Analysis of results highlights the role of convection in the lowermost 5-10 cm of ice. Convection mixes saline, nutrient-poor brine with comparatively fresh, nutrient-rich seawater. This implies a rejection of salt to the ocean and a flux of DSi to the ice. In the presence of growing algae, the simulated ocean-to-ice DSi flux increases by 0-115% compared to an abiotic situation. In turn, primary production and brine convection act in synergy to form a nutrient pump. The other important processes are the flooding of the surface by seawater and the percolation of meltwater. The former refills nutrients near the ice surface in spring. The latter, if present, tends to expell nutrients from the ice in summer.

In this study, the method of self-organizing maps (SOMs) is used with NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data to advance the continuum perspective of Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns and to shed light on the secular eastward shift of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) that began in the late 1970s. A 20-pattern SOM analysis of daily, wintertime, Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure reveals a continuum of patterns that correspond closely with well-known teleconnection patterns. This analysis also reveals that interdecadal variability of the hemispheric sea level pressure field may be understood in terms of changes in the frequency distribution within the continuum of sea level pressure patterns described by the SOM. Based on the continuum perspective illustrated with the SOM, the above secular shift of the NAO may be understood as a change in dominance from westward-displaced, negative NAO-like patterns to eastward-displaced, positive NAO-like patterns, though westward-and eastward-displaced NAO-like patterns existed during all time periods and for both phases.