Nest success is a critical determinant of the dynamics of avian populations, and nest survival modeling has played a key role in advancing avian ecology and management. Beginning with the development of daily nest survival models, and proceeding through subsequent extensions, the capacity for modeling the effects of hypothesized factors on nest survival has expanded greatly. We extend nest survival models further by introducing an approach to deal with incompletely observed, temporally varying covariates using a hierarchical model. Hierarchical modeling offers a way to separate process and observational components of demographic models to obtain estimates of the parameters of primary interest, and to evaluate structural effects of ecological and management interest. We built a hierarchical model for daily nest survival to analyze nest data from reintroduced whooping cranes (Grus americana) in the Eastern Migratory Population. This reintroduction effort has been beset by poor reproduction, apparently due primarily to nest abandonment by breeding birds. We used the model to assess support for the hypothesis that nest abandonment is caused by harassment from biting insects. We obtained indices of blood-feeding insect populations based on the spatially interpolated counts of insects captured in carbon dioxide traps. However, insect trapping was not conducted daily, and so we had incomplete information on a temporally variable covariate of interest. We therefore supplemented our nest survival model with a parallel model for estimating the values of the missing insect covariates. We used Bayesian model selection to identify the best predictors of daily nest survival. Our results suggest that the black fly Simulium annulus may be negatively affecting nest survival of reintroduced whooping cranes, with decreasing nest survival as abundance of S. annulus increases. The modeling framework we have developed will be applied in the future to a larger data set to evaluate the biting-insect hypothesis and other hypotheses for nesting failure in this reintroduced population; resulting inferences will support ongoing efforts to manage this population via an adaptive management approach. Wider application of our approach offers promise for modeling the effects of other temporally varying, but imperfectly observed covariates on nest survival, including the possibility of modeling temporally varying covariates collected from incubating adults.

SummaryFollowing an abnormal flood in 2010 at China’s Poyang Lake, we observed wintering Siberian Cranes Leucogeranus leucogeranus switch from foraging in the shallow-water wetlands they typically use to grassland habitats. These previously undocumented habitat selection patterns raised questions whether differences in crane behaviour such as foraging success existed between the two habitats and how those differences might affect this critically endangered species. Over two winters, we used the density of customary food items (tubers of Vallisneria spp.) obtained from long-term monitoring efforts, Siberian Cranes flock behaviours, individual foraging success and estimated total flock foraging effort across both habitats. Novel foraging patterns by Siberian Cranes were associated with low densities of Vallisneria tubers across multiple sub-lakes within Poyang Lake National Nature Reserve (PLNR). Foraging success was higher in grasslands than in wetlands in winter 2010–2011, but higher in wetlands following a recovery of Vallisneria in 2011–2012. Subsequent to upland foraging during the winter of 2010–2011, we observed lower juvenile to adult ratio of Siberian Cranes at a fall migratory stopover location in north-eastern China despite indications of average environmental conditions in the nesting areas from 2010 to 2012. While grasslands adjacent to shallow-water habitats may be important refugia for wintering Siberian Cranes when Vallisneria is absent or inaccessible, and should be included in protected areas, multi-year dependence on grasslands for foraging could negatively impact population levels. Eliminating crab farming in protected areas and extending protection to shallow water areas sheltered from flooding by dykes could also help secure high quality foraging habitat under a variety of hydrological regimes. Novel foraging patterns by wintering Siberian Cranes represent a new challenge to the conservation efforts for this species that focus on shallow-water wetlands, and may be indicative of broader changes within Poyang’s ecosystem.

From 1990-2001, we made 188 successful captures of 166 different greater sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis tabida) through experimental use of alpha-chloralose (AC). Most captures took place during September (72.3%; n = 136), followed by August (14.9%; n = 28), and October (12.8%; n = 24). Territorial pairs were captured more successfully than family groups. Overall morbidity (6.4%) and mortality (4.3%) were lower than most other capture techniques for sandhill cranes. Exertional myopathy (EM) was the most common complication observed using AC (3.7%). Sedation level (chi5(2) = 25.9, P < 0.01) and month of capture (chi2(2) = 12.3, P < 0.01) were both associated with the presence of EM in cranes captured with AC. A logistic regression model suggests lighter sedation and the months of August and October are potential risk factors for EM in sandhill cranes captured with AC in Wisconsin (USA).

We compared the European and eastern Chinese waterbird assemblages and checked whether the effects of human disturbance could be detected in the assemblages' composition. For the different Chinese provinces, we expected to find a negative effect of economic development on the mean bird species mass and on the proportion of bentivorous, piscivorous and insectivorous bird species. We also expected to find relatively fewer large species in the Chinese assemblage. Species rankabundance curves were relatively similar, but China had significantly more species with smaller body masses. The China assemblage was characterized by relatively higher abundance of heavy-bodied species, contrary to our expectations. Mean bird body mass decreased in China with increasing disturbance and increasing gross domestic product (GDP). For coastal provinces in China the percentage of bentivorous, piscivorous and insectivorous bird species declined with increasing GDP, maybe through the increased use of pesticides or fertilizer.

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We studied the intensity of molt of capital, down, and contour plumages of male and female Canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria) from late fall through winter, spring migration, and nesting. Molt intensities in both juvenile and adult males were highest among arriving fall migrants and during prewinter fat deposition, and molt in juvenile males increased during early spring migration. Among females, capital molt was high among arriving migrants in fall, and molt of all plumage types increased during spring migration and courtship. Paired females tended to molt more heavily than unpaired females during spring migration, but many females initiated intensive prebasic molt before pairing. Molt in females peaked in spring migration and early breeding, concurrently with accelerated fat storage and ovarian growth. Capital and contour molt in females decreased during laying and essentially ceased during incubation, perhaps to mitigate energetic constraints during these periods. Prewinter nutrient storage appeared independent of molt intensity, except for body protein among juveniles. During spring migration, molt intensities were greater in adult females with higher levels of body fat and protein, indicating that molt did not necessarily precede or interfere with nutrient storage. We suggest that outside the laying, incubation, and wing molt periods, the energetic costs of molt in Canvasbacks are not sufficient to mandate temporal separation of molt from nutrient storage, migration, courtship, or early stages of rapid ovarian growth.

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ABSTRACT. Once nearly extirpated, the Eastern Population (EP) of Greater Sandhill Cranes (Grus canadensis tabida) has increased in number and expanded its range in breeding and wintering areas. Data from Christmas Bird Counts (CBCs) and Breeding Bird Surveys (BBSs) were used to delineate changes in the wintering and breeding area distributions during the period from 1966 to 2013. Crane densities were plotted to the centroid of CBC circles or BBS routes, and the Geographic Mean Centers (GMCs) for wintering and breeding populations were calculated. RESUMEN. Cambios en el numero y la distribución de Grus canadensis tabida en la población del orienteUna vez casi extirpada, la población de Grus canadensis tabida del oriente, ha incrementado en numero y expandido su rango enárea de reproducción e invernales. Datos de Conteos Navideños (CN) y Censos de Aves Reproductivas (CAR) fueron utilizados para delinear cambios en la distribución en elárea de invernal y reproductiva durante el periodo desde 1996 hasta 2013. Las densidades de las Grulla fueron graficada al centroide de los círculos de CN y las rutas CAR y fueron calculados los Centros Geográficos Promedio (CGP) para las poblaciones invernales y reproductivas. El numero de G. c. tabida detectados durante la temporada reproductiva ha incrementado sostenidamente desde 1996, con solo seis aves observadas en 1996 y 1046 observadas en el 2013. Los CGP de las poblaciones de G. c. tabida han permanecido en Wisconsin durante el plazo de 47 años. Los números totales de G. c. tabida obtenidos al oriente de los Estados Unidos durante los CN creció desde 423 en 1965 a 46,194 en 2012, con un numero pico de 55,826 en 2011. tabida fue localizado en la Florida durante los periodos 1996 a 1997 y 1978 a 1989, pero se desplazo al nororiente por casi 4°de latitud (hacia Georgia) entre 1990 -2001 . Entre 2002, el CGP de ha desplazado un grado más al norte al igual que casi un grado de longitud al occidente. Las poblaciones orientales de G. c. tabida pueden continuar invernando más al norte y permanecen en las zonas más septentrionales más tarde en el otoño antes de migrar hacia el sur. Factores como el clima anual, el cambio climático a largo plazo, y los cambios en el uso del suelo pueden influir en todas las tendencias demográficas futuras, y cambios tanto en la cría como rangos invernales de la población oriental de G. c. tabida.