A hierarchical nest survival model integrating incomplete temporally varying covariates

Converse, Sarah J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Adler, Peter H.; Urbanek, Richard P.; Barzen, Jeb A.

doi:10.1002/ece3.822

Cited by 40 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 44 publications

(77 reference statements)

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“…Although cranes in this population appear to pair and nest consistently and at an earlier age than those in the Florida non-migratory population, the observed reproductive success is very low. As of 2010, only 12 of 80 nests had successfully hatched chicks and only three of those chicks had fledged (Converse et al 2013c, King et al 2013. Poor reproduction was also a major challenge in the non-migratory population in Florida, where only nine chicks were fledged from 63 nests through 2007 (Spalding et al 2009, Moore et al 2012).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demography of a reintroduced population: moving toward management models for an endangered species, the Whooping Crane

Servanty

Converse

Bailey

2014

Ecological Applications

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The reintroduction of threatened and endangered species is now a common method for reestablishing populations. Typically, a fundamental objective of reintroduction is to establish a self-sustaining population. Estimation of demographic parameters in reintroduced populations is critical, as these estimates serve multiple purposes. First, they support evaluation of progress toward the fundamental objective via construction of population viability analyses (PVAs) to predict metrics such as probability of persistence. Second, PVAs can be expanded to support evaluation of management actions, via management modeling. Third, the estimates themselves can support evaluation of the demographic performance of the reintroduced population (e.g., via comparison with wild populations). For each of these purposes, thorough treatment of uncertainties in the estimates is critical. Recently developed statistical methods (namely, hierarchical Bayesian implementations of state-space models) allow for effective integration of different types of uncertainty in estimation. We undertook a demographic estimation effort for a reintroduced population of endangered Whooping Cranes with the purpose of ultimately developing a Bayesian PVA for determining progress toward establishing a self-sustaining population, and for evaluating potential management actions via a Bayesian PVA-based management model. We evaluated individual and temporal variation in demographic parameters based upon a multi-state, mark-recapture model. We found that survival was relatively high across time and varied little by sex. There was some indication that survival varied by release method. Survival was similar to that observed in the wild population. Although overall reproduction in this reintroduced population is poor, birds formed social pairs when relatively young, and once a bird was in a social pair, it had a nearly 50% chance of nesting the following breeding season. Also, once a bird had nested, it had a high probability of nesting again. These results are encouraging, considering that survival and reproduction have been major challenges in past reintroductions of this species. The demographic estimates developed will support construction of a management model designed to facilitate exploration of management actions of interest, and will provide critical guidance in future planning for this reintroduction. An approach similar to what we describe could be usefully applied to many reintroduced populations.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demography of a reintroduced population: moving toward management models for an endangered species, the Whooping Crane

Servanty

Converse

Bailey

2014

Ecological Applications

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“…We estimated a global intercept and included group‐level effects

α_{j}

and

δ_{k}

for each year ( j ) and ranch ( k ). We used a Bayesian variable selection technique to quantify support for the effects of date, age, SGI‐RGS, and rest on daily nest survival (Converse et al ). We multiplied regression coefficients β p for each variable p by binary indicator variables ( w p ; Kuo and Mallick , O'Hara and Sillanpää ):

logit true(ϕ_{i, t} true) = β_{0} + w_{1} β_{1} \times {date}_{i, t} + w_{2} β_{2} \times {age}_{i, t} + w_{3} β_{3} \times S G I - R G S + w_{4} β_{4} \times {rest}_{i} + α_{j} + δ_{k}

α_{j} \sim N true(0, σ^{α} true)

δ_{k} \sim N true(0, σ^{δ} true)

…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of rotational grazing management on nesting greater sage‐grouse

et al. 2017

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Grazing by domestic livestock is a ubiquitous land use in the sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) biome of western North America. Widespread, long-term population declines in greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) have elicited concern about potential negative effects of livestock management practices on sage-grouse populations. We evaluated how recently implemented rotational grazing systems affected sagegrouse nesting habitat quality as part of a large-scale, replicated, natural experiment in central Montana, USA. We used Bayesian methods to assess support for effects of rotational grazing management and rest from grazing on daily survival rates of nearly 500 sage-grouse nests monitored over 6 years, and mixed effects models to test for effects of rotational grazing and rest on vegetation structure. Though nests on rotationally grazed ranches displayed a trend toward greater daily survival rates, the evidence for an effect was weak. There was no evidence that rest from grazing (!12 months) increased daily survival rates. Furthermore, rotational grazing systems and rest had negligible effects on herbaceous vegetation height and cover relative to other grazing strategies used in the study area. Results do not support the hypothesis that rotational grazing systems or rest from grazing increase nest success in the northern Great Plains. Estimated nest success, however, was comparable to range-wide averages, suggesting concealing cover for nests is unlikely to be limiting growth of this population regardless of grazing strategy. In light of these results and recent research questioning reported relationships between grass height and nest survival, maximization of hiding cover may be overemphasized in grazing management guidelines and policies. Rather, our findings suggest a variety of locally appropriate grazing strategies focused on fundamental range health principles may provide adequate habitat quality for nesting sage-grouse. Ó 2017 The Wildlife Society.

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“…Of these, recent research supports the hypothesis that whooping crane nest failures were related to seasonal abundance of ornithophilic blackflies (Diptera: Simuliidae; Converse et al 2013). Sandhill cranes are also known hosts for Simulium spp.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 62%

Nest-Site Selection Patterns of Coexisting Sandhill and Whooping Cranes in Wisconsin

Strobel¹,

Giorgi²

2017

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management

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Breeding sandhill cranes Antigone canadensis and released captive-reared whooping cranes Grus americana have coexisted in central Wisconsin since 2001. Despite 15 y of reintroduction efforts, the reproductive success of these whooping cranes has been near zero. Preliminary data suggest sandhill cranes nesting in central Wisconsin have apparent nest success rates that are similar to those reported from other populations in the region (~50%). One hypothesized cause of the whooping crane population's low reproductive success is nest abandonment induced by blood-feeding ornithophilic black flies Diptera: Simuliidae. Species-specific differences in selection of nest sites could influence the abundance of black flies at nests and affect reproductive success rates. We measured multiple vegetative and hydrologic characteristics at 35 sandhill crane nests, 20 whooping crane nests, and 164 randomly selected locations at 5-and 200-m scales. We were unable to detect a species-specific difference in vegetation characteristics within 5 m of nest sites. At the 200-m scale, sandhill cranes built nests at sites with slightly greater coverage of woody vegetation than whooping cranes. Differences observed between nest sites of sandhill and whooping cranes appeared to be slight and likely insufficient to explain the dramatic differences in reproductive success in central Wisconsin.Keywords: endangered; habitat; nest; reintroduced; sandhill crane; selection; whooping crane

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A hierarchical nest survival model integrating incomplete temporally varying covariates

Cited by 40 publications

References 44 publications

Demography of a reintroduced population: moving toward management models for an endangered species, the Whooping Crane

Demography of a reintroduced population: moving toward management models for an endangered species, the Whooping Crane

Effects of rotational grazing management on nesting greater sage‐grouse

Nest-Site Selection Patterns of Coexisting Sandhill and Whooping Cranes in Wisconsin

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