Species of conservation concern are increasingly threatened by multiple, anthropogenic stressors which are outside their evolutionary experience. Greater sage-grouse are highly susceptible to the impacts of two such stressors: oil and gas (energy) development and West Nile virus (WNv). However, the combined effects of these stressors and their potential interactions have not been quantified. We used lek (breeding ground) counts across a landscape encompassing extensive local and regional variation in the intensity of energy development to quantify the effects of energy development on lek counts, in years with widespread WNv outbreaks and in years without widespread outbreaks. We then predicted the effects of well density and WNv outbreak years on sage-grouse in northeast Wyoming. Absent an outbreak year, drilling an undeveloped landscape to a high permitting level (3.1 wells/km2) resulted in a 61% reduction in the total number of males counted in northeast Wyoming (total count). This was similar in magnitude to the 55% total count reduction that resulted from an outbreak year alone. However, energy-associated reductions in the total count resulted from a decrease in the mean count at active leks, whereas outbreak-associated reductions resulted from a near doubling of the lek inactivity rate (proportion of leks with a last count = 0). Lek inactivity quadrupled when 3.1 wells/km2 was combined with an outbreak year, compared to no energy development and no outbreak. Conservation measures should maintain sagebrush landscapes large and intact enough so that leks are not chronically reduced in size due to energy development, and therefore vulnerable to becoming inactive due to additional stressors.

Conservation success often hinges on our ability to link demography with implementable management actions to infl uence population growth ( l ). Nest success is demonstrated to be important to l in greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus , an imperiled species in the North American sagebrush-steppe. Enhancing this vital rate through management represents an opportunity to increase bird numbers inside population strongholds. We identifi ed management for grass height as an action that can improve nest success in an analysis of sage-grouse nests (n ϭ 529) from a long-term study (2003 -2007) in the Powder River Basin, southeast Montana and northeast Wyoming, USA. Average grass height by study area and year varied (11.4 -29.2 cm) but its positive eff ects on nest survival were consistent among study years and study areas that diff ered in absolute rates of nest success. We tested the predictive ability of models by grouping output from log-link analyses (2004 -2006) into two bins with nest success probabilities Ͻ 0.45 and Ͼ 0.55, and validated the relationship with additional data from 2003 and 2007. Nests with probabilities Ͼ 0.55 were 1.64 (2004 -2006) to 3.11 (2007) times more likely to hatch than those Ͻ 0.45, except in 2003 when an early wet spring resulted in universally high grass height at nest sites (29.2 cm) and high predicted nest success (64%). Th e high predictive power of grass height illustrates its utility as a management tool to increase nest success within priority landscapes. Relationships suggest that managing grass height during drought may benefi t sage-grouse populations.

Single species conservation unites disparate partners for the conservation of one species. However, there are widespread concerns that single species conservation biases conservation efforts towards charismatic species at the expense of others. Here we investigate the extent to which sage grouse (Centrocercus sp.) conservation, the largest public-private conservation effort for a single species in the US, provides protections for other species from localized and landscape-scale threats. We compared the coverage provided by sage grouse Priority Areas for Conservation (PACs) to 81 sagebrush-associated vertebrate species distributions with potential coverage under multi-species conservation prioritization generated using the decision support tool Zonation. PACs. We found that the current PAC prioritization approach was not statistically different from a diversity-based prioritization approach and covers 23.3% of the landscape, and 24.8%, on average, of the habitat of the 81 species. The proportion of each species distribution at risk was lower inside PACs as compared to the region as a whole, even without management (land use change 30% lower, cheatgrass invasion 19% lower). Whether or not bias away from threat represents the most efficient use of conservation effort is a matter of considerable debate, though may be pragmatic in this landscape where capacity to address these threats is limited. The approach outlined here can be used to evaluate biological equitability of protections provided by flagship species in other settings.

No abstract

2019.Synchronizing conservation to seasonal wetland hydrology and waterbird migration in semi-arid landscapes. EcosphereAbstract. In semi-arid ecosystems, timing and availability of water is a key uncertainty associated with conservation planning for wetland-dependent wildlife. Wetlands compose only 1-3% of these landscapes; however, large populations of migratory waterbirds rely on these wetlands to support energetically demanding life history events such as breeding and migration. Migration is considered a crucial period for birds associated with individual survival and reproductive success, yet our understanding of migration ecology remains limited. To better inform conservation planning supportive of these demands, we quantified synchrony of wetland flooding and waterbird migration by reconstructing bi-monthly surface water patterns from 1984 to 2015 across 11.4 million ha of the semi-arid Great Basin, USA. Results were then linked to seasonal migration chronologies for seven dabbling ducks species. Seasonal patterns were used in landscape planning simulations to assess efficiency in conservation strategies that aligned temporally sensitive wetland flooding and species migration. Wetland data were combined with land tenure to evaluate periodicity in waterfowl reliance on public and private lands. We found migration chronologies misaligned with wetland flooding. In spring, half (43-59%) to three-quarters (68-74%) of seasonal wetlands were flooded and available to early-and latemigrating species while seasonal drying restricted wetland flooding to 13-20% of sites during fall migration. Simulations showed wetland conservation inconsiderate of temporal availability was only 67-75% efficient in meeting waterfowl habitat goals on private lands that made up~70% of flooded wetland area in spring. Private-public wetland flooding was equivalent during fall migration. Accounting for spatiotemporal patterns of wetland flooding is imperative to improving efficiencies linked to migratory bird conservation. Timing of public-private wetland flooding, demonstrated by our models, provides landscape context that emphasized a joint role in supporting migratory waterbird habitat. Integrated management scenarios may capitalize on public lands' flexibility to expand fall flooding to offset seasonal drying on private lands while targeted incentive-based conservation assures private wetland flooding in spring. Such scenarios illustrate benefits of holistic public-private wetlands management representing a forward-looking alternative that aligns conservation with forecasts of increasing water scarcity.

Proactive conservation planning for species requires the identification of important spatial attributes across ecologically relevant scales in a model-based framework. However, it is often difficult to develop predictive models, as the explanatory data required for model development across regional management scales is rarely available. Golden eagles are a large-ranging predator of conservation concern in the United States that may be negatively affected by wind energy development. Thus, identifying landscapes least likely to pose conflict between eagles and wind development via shared space prior to development will be critical for conserving populations in the face of imposing development. We used publically available data on golden eagle nests to generate predictive models of golden eagle nesting sites in Wyoming, USA, using a suite of environmental and anthropogenic variables. By overlaying predictive models of golden eagle nesting habitat with wind energy resource maps, we highlight areas of potential conflict among eagle nesting habitat and wind development. However, our results suggest that wind potential and the relative probability of golden eagle nesting are not necessarily spatially correlated. Indeed, the majority of our sample frame includes areas with disparate predictions between suitable nesting habitat and potential for developing wind energy resources. Map predictions cannot replace on-the-ground monitoring for potential risk of wind turbines on wildlife populations, though they provide industry and managers a useful framework to first assess potential development.

Sage-grouse (Centrocercus spp.) are influencing rapidly evolving land management policy in the western United States. Management objectives for fine-scale vegetation characteristics (e.g., grass height >18 cm) have been adopted by land management agencies based on resource selection or relationships with fitness proxies reported among numerous habitat studies. Some managers, however, have questioned the appropriateness of these objectives. Moreover, it remains untested whether habitat-fitness relationships documented at fine scales (i.e., among individual nests within a study area) also apply at scales of management units (e.g., pastures or grazing allotments), which are many orders of magnitude larger. We employed meta-analyses of studies published from 1991 to 2019 to help resolve the role of fine-scale vegetation structure in nest site selection and nest success across the geographic range of greater sage-grouse (C. urophasianus) and evaluate the validity of established habitat management objectives. Specifically, we incorporated effects of study design and functional responses to resource availability in meta-regression models linking vegetation structure to nest site selection, and used a novel meta-analytic approach to simultaneously model vegetation structure and its relationship to nest success. Our approach tested habitat relationships at a range-wide extent and a grain size closely matching scales at which agencies make management decisions. We found moderate, but context-dependent, effects of shrub characteristics and weak effects of herbaceous vegetation on nest site selection. None of the tested vegetation characteristics were related to variation in nest success, suggesting nesting habitat-fitness relationships have been inappropriately extrapolated in developing range-wide habitat management objectives. Our findings reveal surprising flexibility in habitat use for a species often depicted as having very particular fine-scale habitat requirements, and cast doubt on the practice of adopting precise management objectives for vegetation structure based on findings of individual small-scale field studies.

Range-edge dynamics and anthropogenic fragmentation are expected to impact patterns of genetic diversity, and understanding the influence of both factors is important for effective conservation of threatened wildlife species. To examine these factors, we sampled greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) from a declining, fragmented region at the northern periphery of the species' range and from a stable, contiguous core region. We genotyped 2,519 individuals at 13 microsatellite loci from 104 leks in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Montana, and Wyoming. Birds from northern Montana, Alberta, and Saskatchewan were identified as a single population that exhibited significant isolation by distance, with the Milk River demarcating two subpopulations. Both subpopulations exhibited high genetic diversity with no evidence that peripheral regions were genetically depauperate or highly structured. However, river valleys and a large agricultural region were significant barriers to dispersal. Leks were also composed primarily of non-kin, rejecting the idea that leks form because of male kin association. Northern Montana sagegrouse are maintaining genetic connectivity in fragmented and northern peripheral habitats via dispersal through and around various forms of fragmentation.