This paper explores local incumbent behaviour during office. First, empirical evidence is given about the fiscal policy instruments by which French municipalities try to influence election outcome. Special care is taken about the econometric issues raised by the dynamic panel data setting. Secondly, a theoretical framework is built to investigate the political budget cycle when local taxation is degressive as in France. Its main results help understanding of the empirical findings.
Hoche CS 86514, 35065 Rennes Cedex, France. We would like to thank Nathalie Colombier for helpful assistance.We are also grateful to Angela Cheptea, Valérie Mignon and Daniel Mirza.
Résumé Cet article montre qu’une augmentation des flux commerciaux bilatéraux a des effets contrastés sur la synchronisation des cycles nationaux selon qu’elle intègre l’échange de nouvelles variétés. À l’aide d’un modèle dsge à prix flexibles, on montre que la marge extensive réduit les fluctuations des termes de l’échange, ce qui tend à bloquer un effet de transfert à l’origine d’une meilleure synchronisation des cycles. On quantifie empiriquement cet effet à l’aide d’un échantillon constitué de dix pays européens entre 1995 et 2007. Une augmentation de 1 % de la marge extensive du commerce tend à réduire la synchronisation des cycles de 0,11 à 0,34 %, selon la mesure de cette marge extensive et les variables de contrôle retenues.
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