Hoche CS 86514, 35065 Rennes Cedex, France. We would like to thank Nathalie Colombier for helpful assistance.We are also grateful to Angela Cheptea, Valérie Mignon and Daniel Mirza.
Résumé Cet article montre qu’une augmentation des flux commerciaux bilatéraux a des effets contrastés sur la synchronisation des cycles nationaux selon qu’elle intègre l’échange de nouvelles variétés. À l’aide d’un modèle dsge à prix flexibles, on montre que la marge extensive réduit les fluctuations des termes de l’échange, ce qui tend à bloquer un effet de transfert à l’origine d’une meilleure synchronisation des cycles. On quantifie empiriquement cet effet à l’aide d’un échantillon constitué de dix pays européens entre 1995 et 2007. Une augmentation de 1 % de la marge extensive du commerce tend à réduire la synchronisation des cycles de 0,11 à 0,34 %, selon la mesure de cette marge extensive et les variables de contrôle retenues.
This paper gives an empirical assessment of the extent to which a financial crash in a country can slowdown the domestic economic growth and how these effects can spread through trade relationships. First, we modify the Cerra and Saxena's ( 2008) methodology in order to understand the interplay between economic activity and foreign trade during the 2008 financial crisis. Our sample is made of monthly data for 26 countries over 1993-2013. We then simulate the dynamic responses of domestic activity to a demand shock and to a financial crisis. Trade contributes to growth in the context of a demand shock (from 63% for developing countries to 433% for NAFTA) whereas it dampens output loss in the context of the 2008 financial crisis (from -38% for developing countries to -127% for NAFTA).
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