No abstract

Sunspot activity is highly variable and challenging to forecast. Yet forecasts are important, since peak activity has profound effects on major geophysical phenomena including space weather (satellite drag, telecommunications outages) and has even been correlated speculatively with changes in global weather patterns. This paper investigates trends in sunspot activity, using new techniques for decadal-scale prediction of the present solar cycle (cycle 24). First, Hurst exponent H analysis is used to investigate the autocorrelation structure of the putative dynamics; then the Sugihara-May algorithm is used to predict the ascension time and the maximum intensity of the current sunspot cycle. Here we report H = 0.86 for the complete sunspot number dataset (1700-2007) and H = 0.88 for the reliable sunspot data set . Using the Sugihara-May algorithm analysis, we forecast that cycle 24 will reach its maximum in December 2012 at approximately 87 sunspots units.

No abstract

No abstract

In this study, we used two methods to investigate the periodic behavior of sunspot counts in four categories for the time period January 1986-October 2013. These categories include the counts from simple (A and B), medium (C), large (D, E, and F), and final (H) sunspot groups. We used: i) the Multi-taper Method with red noise approximation, and ii) the Morlet wavelet transform for periodicity analysis. Our main findings are: (1) the solar rotation periodicity of about 25 to 37 days, which is of obvious significance, is found in all groups with at least a 95% significance level; (2) the periodic behavior of a cycle is strongly related to its amplitude and group distribution during the cycle; (3) the appearance of periods follow the amplitude of the investigated solar cycles, (4) meaningful periods do not appear during the minimum phases of the investigated cycles. We would like to underline that the cyclic behavior of all categories is not completely the same; there are some differences between these groups. This result can provide a clue for the better understanding of solar cycles.

International audienceWe hereby present a review on solar oblateness measurements. By emphasizing historical data, we illustrate how the discordance between experimental results can lead to substantial improvements in the building of new technical apparatus as well as to the emergence of new ideas to develop new theories. We stress out the need to get accurate data from space to enhance our knowledge of the solar core in order to develop more precise ephemerids and ultimately build possible new gravitational theories

No abstract

We investigate periodicities in the mean heliographic latitudes of sunspot groups, called active latitudes, for the past six complete solar cycles (1945 -2008). For this purpose, the multitaper method and Morlet wavelet analysis were used. We found that solar rotation periodicities (26 -38 days) are present in active latitudes of both hemispheres for all the investigated cycles (18 to 23). Both in the northern and southern hemispheres, active latitudes drifted toward the equator from the beginning to the end of each cycle and followed an oscillating path. These motions are well described by a second-order polynomial. There are no meaningful periods of between 55 and about 300 days in either hemisphere for all cycles. A periodicity of 300 to 370 days appears in both hemispheres for Cycle 23, in the northern hemisphere for Cycle 20, and in the southern hemisphere for Cycle 18.