Prediction of solar cycle 25: a non-linear approach

Sarp, Volkan; Kılçık, Ali; Yurchyshyn, Vasyl; Rozelot, Jean-Pierre; Özgüç, A.

doi:10.1093/mnras/sty2470

Cited by 53 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…A more refined approach is simplex projection analysis, recently applied by Singh and Bhargawa (2017) for the problem of solar cycle prediction. (See also Sarp et al 2018.) A most remarkable extension of these methods was presented by Covas (2017) who, instead of focusing on the time series of SSN only, considered the problem of extending the whole spatiotemporal data set of sunspot positions (butterfly diagram) into the future.…”

Section: Nonlinear Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Solar cycle prediction

Petrovay

2020

Living Rev Sol Phys

175

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A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including early forecasts for Cycle 25. The review focuses on those aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is further restricted to the issue of predicting the amplitude (and optionally the epoch) of an upcoming solar maximum no later than right after the start of the given cycle. Prediction methods form three main groups. Precursor methods rely on the value of some measure of solar activity or magnetism at a specified time to predict the amplitude of the following solar maximum. The choice of a good precursor often implies considerable physical insight: indeed, it has become increasingly clear that the transition from purely empirical precursors to model-based methods is continuous. Model-based approaches can be further divided into two groups: predictions based on surface flux transport models and on consistent dynamo models. The implicit assumption of precursor methods is that each numbered solar cycle is a consistent unit in itself, while solar activity seems to consist of a series of much less tightly intercorrelated individual cycles. Extrapolation methods, in contrast, are based on the premise that the physical process giving rise to the sunspot number record is statistically homogeneous, i.e., the mathematical regularities underlying its variations are the same at any point of time, and therefore it lends itself to analysis and forecasting by time series methods. In their overall performance during the course of the last few solar cycles, precursor methods have clearly been superior to extrapolation methods. One method that has This article is a revised version of

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Section: Nonlinear Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Solar cycle prediction

Petrovay

2020

Living Rev Sol Phys

175

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“…This unusual behavior has drawn the attention of researchers worldwide who have attempted to predict the amplitude of solar cycle 25 (Bhowmik & Nandy, 2018;Cameron et al, 2016;Gopalswamy et al, 2018;Hathaway & Upton, 2016;Iijima et al, 2017;Janardhan et al, 2015;Jiang et al, 2018;Kakad et al, 2017;Kirov et al, 2018;Macario-Rojas et al, 2018;Pesnell & Schatten, 2018;Petrovay et al, 2018;Sarp et al, 2018;Upton & Hathaway, 2014, 2018. The different estimates of SSN in V1.0 and V2.0 for the amplitude of cycle 25 by different researchers along with the ratio of peak SSN of cycle 25 to cycle 24 are summarized in Table 1.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Another Mini Solar Maximum in the Offing: A Prediction for the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25

Janardhan

Ananthakrishnan

2020

JGR Space Physics

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We examine the temporal changes in both solar polar magnetic field (PMF) at latitudes ≥45° and heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) at 1 AU during solar cycles 21–24 with emphasis on the recent activity changes after July 2015, the so called “mini solar maximum” of cycle 24. While unsigned PMF shows solar cycle modulations in cycles 21 and 22, it shows an anti‐correlation with solar cycle variation in cycle 24. In addition, the floor level of the HMF (of 4.6 nT), that is, the value that the HMF returns to at each solar minimum, is breached about 2 years prior to cycle 24 minimum, indicating a reduced HMF floor level of 3.2 ± 0.5 nT in the upcoming cycle 24 minimum. In light of the change of unsigned PMF and the availability of a revised smoothed sunspot number (SSN V2.0) after July 2015, we revisit the correlation of unsigned PMF and HMF at solar minimum. The correlation is used to estimate values of the HMF at the cycle 24 minimum and the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 25. The updated prediction is 134 ± 11 or 131 ± 11 on the revised SSN V2.0 scale assuming the cycle 24 minimum to occur in 2020 or 2021, respectively. The SSN values indicate that the cycle 25 will be stronger than cycle 24 and a little weaker than cycle 23, even if the current solar cycle minimum occurs in 2021 instead of 2020. This implies that we will witness another mini solar maximum in the upcoming cycle 25.

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“…The statistical and extrapolation methods include linear regression techniques (e.g., Chae and Kim 2017; Werner and Guineva 2020), multivariate regression (Sabarinath and Anilkumar 2018), neural networks (Covas et al 2019), deep learning (Pala and Atici 2019), and non-linear prediction algorithms (Sarp et al 2018).…”

Section: Project See: Solar Evolution and Extremamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most of the predictions based on statistical and extrapolation methods are for a low cycle 25, similar (possibly somewhat higher of somewhat lower) to cycle 24. Some studies predict a very weak cycle (e.g., Covas et al 2019), a cycle stronger than cycle 24 (Sarp et al 2018), or stronger than both cycles 23 and 24 (Pala and Atici 2019).…”

Section: Project See: Solar Evolution and Extremamentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of the SCOSTEP’s 5-year scientific program VarSITI—Variability of the Sun and Its Terrestrial Impact

Shiokawa

Georgieva

2021

Prog Earth Planet Sci

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The Sun is a variable active-dynamo star, emitting radiation in all wavelengths and solar-wind plasma to the interplanetary space. The Earth is immersed in this radiation and solar wind, showing various responses in geospace and atmosphere. This Sun–Earth connection variates in time scales from milli-seconds to millennia and beyond. The solar activity, which has a ~11-year periodicity, is gradually declining in recent three solar cycles, suggesting a possibility of a grand minimum in near future. VarSITI—variability of the Sun and its terrestrial impact—was the 5-year program of the scientific committee on solar-terrestrial physics (SCOSTEP) in 2014–2018, focusing on this variability of the Sun and its consequences on the Earth. This paper reviews some background of SCOSTEP and its past programs, achievements of the 5-year VarSITI program, and remaining outstanding questions after VarSITI.

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Prediction of solar cycle 25: a non-linear approach

Cited by 53 publications

References 30 publications

Solar cycle prediction

Solar cycle prediction

Another Mini Solar Maximum in the Offing: A Prediction for the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25

A review of the SCOSTEP’s 5-year scientific program VarSITI—Variability of the Sun and Its Terrestrial Impact

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