For several of the largest supermarket product categories, such as carbonated soft drinks, canned soups, ready-to-eat cereals, and cookies, consumers regularly purchase assortments of products. Within the category, consumers often purchase multiple products and multiple units of each alternative selected on a given trip. This multiple discreteness violates the single-unit purchase assumption of multinomial logit and probit models. The misspecification of such demand models in categories exhibiting multiple discreteness would produce incorrect measures of consumer response to marketing mix variables. In studying product strategy, these models would lead to misleading managerial conclusions. We use an alternative microeconomic model of demand for categories that exhibit the multiple discreteness problem. Recognizing the separation between the time of purchase and the time of consumption, we model consumers purchasing bundles of goods in anticipation of a stream of consumption occasions before the next trip. We apply the model to a panel of household purchases for carbonated soft drinks.multiple discreteness, structural modeling, customer behavior, brand choice
We study the long-run evolution of brand preferences, using new data on consumers' life histories and purchases of consumer packaged goods. Variation in where consumers have lived in the past allows us to isolate the causal effect of past experiences on current purchases, holding constant contemporaneous supply-side factors. We show that brand preferences form endogenously, are highly persistent, and explain 40 percent of geographic variation in market shares. Counterfactuals suggest that brand preferences create large entry barriers and durable advantages for incumbent firms and can explain the persistence of early-mover advantage over long periods. (JEL D12, L11, M31, M37)
We test for and measure the effects of cable news in the US on regional differences in compliance with recommendations by health experts to practice social distancing during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. We use a quasi-experimental design to estimate the causal effect of Fox News viewership on stay-at-home behavior by using only the incremental local viewership due to the quasi-random assignment of channel positions in a local cable line-up. We find that a 10% increase in Fox News cable viewership (approximately 0:13 higher viewer rating points) leads to a 1.3 percentage point reduction in the propensity to stay at home. We find a persuasion rate of Fox News on non-compliance with stay-at-home behavior during the crisis of about 5:7%-28:4% across our various social distancing metrics.
The conventional wisdom in economic theory holds that switching costs make markets less competitive. This paper challenges this claim. We formulate an empirically realistic model of dynamic price competition that allows for differentiated products and imperfect lock-in. We calibrate this model with data from frequently purchased packaged goods markets. These data are ideal in the sense that they have the necessary variation to separately identify switching costs from consumer heterogeneity. Equally important, consumers exhibit inertia in their brand choices, a form of psychological switching cost. This makes our results applicable to the broad range of products that are distinctly identified (i.e. branded) rather than just to those products for which there is a product adoption cost or explicit switching fee. In our simulations, prices are as much as 18 per cent lower with than without switching costs.
W e explore opportunities for targeted pricing for a retailer that only tracks weekly storelevel aggregate sales and marketing-mix information. We show that it is possible, using these data, to recover essential features of the underlying distribution of consumer willingness to pay. Knowledge of this distribution may enable the retailer to generate additional profits from targeting by using choice information at the checkout counter. In estimating demand we incorporate a supply-side model of the distribution channel that captures important features of competitive price-setting behavior of firms. This latter aspect helps us control for the potential endogeneity generated by unmeasured product characteristics in aggregate data. The channel controls for competitive aspects both between manufacturers and between manufacturers and a retailer. Despite this competition, we find that targeted pricing need not generate the prisoner's dilemma in our data. This contrasts with the findings of theoretical models due to the flexibility of the empirical model of demand. The demand system we estimate captures richer forms of product differentiation, both vertical and horizontal, as well as a more flexible distribution of consumer heterogeneity.
In this paper we describe the pass-through behavior of a major U.S. supermarket chain for 78 products across 11 categories. Our data set includes retail prices and wholesale prices for stores in 15 retail price zones for a one-year period. For the empirical model, we use a reduced-form approach that focuses directly on equilibrium prices as a function of exogenous supply- and demand-shifting variables. The reduced-form approach enables us to identify the theoretical pass-through rate without specific assumptions about the form of consumer demand or the conduct of a category-pricing manager. Thus, our measurements of pass-through are not constrained by specific structure on the underlying economic model. The empirical pricing model includes costs of all competing products in the category on the right-hand side (not only the cost of the focal brand) and yields estimates of both own-brand and cross-brand pass-through rates. Our results provide a rich picture of the retailer's pass-through behavior. We find that pass-through varies substantially across products and across categories. Own-brand pass-through rates are, on average, more than 60% for 9 of 11 categories, a finding that is at odds with the claims of manufacturers about retailers in general. Importantly, we find substantial evidence of cross-brand pass-through effects, indicating that retail prices of competing products are adjusted in response to a change in the wholesale price of any given product in the category. We find that cross-brand pass-through rates are both positive and negative. We explore determinants of own-brand and cross-brand pass-through rates and find strong evidence in multiple categories of asymmetric retailer response to trade promotions on large versus small brands. For example, brands with larger market shares, and brands that contribute more to retailer profits in the category, receive higher pass-through. We also find that trade promotions on large brands are less likely than small brands to generate positive cross-brand pass-through, i.e., induce the retailer to reduce the retail price of competing smaller products. On the other hand, small share brands are disadvantaged along three dimensions. Trade promotions on small brands receive low own-brand pass-through generate positive cross-brand pass-through for larger competing brands. Moreover, small share brands do not receive positive cross pass-through from trade promotions on these larger competitors. We also find that store brands are similarly disadvantaged with respect to national brands.pricing, promotion, retailing, channels of distribution, econometric models
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